Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 On 2/11/2019 at 10:56 PM, Jandurin said: alabama deserves that 37 inches more than we do Expand Even Clemson didn't beat them by that much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 On 2/11/2019 at 10:56 PM, Jandurin said: alabama deserves that 37 inches more than we do Expand **** no in it to win it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 On 2/11/2019 at 10:56 PM, Bob Chill said: That's why you just hug the Fv3 and break out the it's happening gif. And also why looking past this weekend might not be a good idea Expand Does this model ever not show a snowstorm? We’re gonna check it in August and it’s gonna have 6-12 for the DC metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Now if I lived in AL make that run my screensaver. And take it out to dinner. 6 hours to enjoy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 On 2/11/2019 at 10:56 PM, Bob Chill said: That's why you just hug the Fv3 and break out the it's happening gif. And also why looking past this weekend might not be a good idea Expand Oh I’m not looking past anything. There are like 5 waves in the next 2 weeks and each will affect the one behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 while i doubt we don't score at least moderately i'm just freaking happy it's not cold and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 On 2/11/2019 at 11:12 PM, psuhoffman said: Oh I’m not looking past anything. There are like 5 waves in the next 2 weeks and each will affect the one behind it. Expand I know you weren't. We think alike often (that's some scary S right there). Ops are pretty useful for the weekend period. Helps us figure out what the range of possibilities are. The Fv3 is a pretty classic way we get snow here. Not saying I think it's right. Hope it is of course and not far fetched or unusual for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Gefs provides no insight for next week. Range is from getting crushed, to decent, to mixed mess, to pouring teardrops of despair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Pretty much no support for anything frozen on the GEFS before next Tues. After that it’s bombs away. Another weenie run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 On 2/11/2019 at 10:58 PM, Bob Chill said: 18z Fv3 had the weenie plugin installed. 2 for 2 Expand Both are equally likely/not likely. Overall I find it unlikely we manage to get missed by all these waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 On 2/11/2019 at 10:56 PM, Jandurin said: alabama deserves that 37 inches more than we do Expand How much for Philly (MS)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 On 2/11/2019 at 11:23 PM, jaydreb said: Pretty much no support for anything frozen on the GEFS before next Tues. After that it’s bombs away. Another weenie Expand No surprise because the op was a miss and the gefs always has limited spread in the mid range. If 0z or any future gfs op shows a hit this weekend then the gefs will go all in. Eps showed minority support. About a third of the solutions got it done in various ways. Eps can be similar in the mid range too but not as bad as the gefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 The thing I don't like is that it's either a cutter or straight out to the Atlantic, more or less. The orientation of the flow doesn't appear to be conducive to what we really want. How about a storm that gathers some steam in the GOM and rides up the east coast? Not NE/E out to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 On 2/11/2019 at 11:31 PM, Wonderdog said: How about a storm that gathers some steam in the GOM and rides up the east coast? Not NE/E out to see. Expand Classic miller As are rare and we need the -pna to back off before anything like that will happen. We could get really lucky and pull something like that off but my guess is very unlikely unless a ridge in the west builds. Hopefully that shifts better later this month. Both the gefs and eps build it in the d10-15 range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 On 2/11/2019 at 11:39 PM, Bob Chill said: Classic miller As are rare and we need the -pna to back off before anything like that will happen. We could get really lucky and pull something like that off but my guess is very unlikely unless a ridge in the west builds. Hopefully that shifts better later this month. Both the gefs and eps build it in the d10-15 range Expand I know. Just venting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 18z Gefs is the straigh up honest to god weeniest run of the long range I’ve ever seen. The only time I’ve ever seen so much snow on an ensemble is when we were within 7 days of a major storm. Never when all the snow was 7+ days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 On 2/11/2019 at 11:57 PM, psuhoffman said: Expand Eh, I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/11/2019 at 11:55 PM, psuhoffman said: 18z Gefs is the straigh up honest to god weeniest run of the long range I’ve ever seen. The only time I’ve ever seen so much snow on an ensemble is when we were within 7 days of a major storm. Never when all the snow was 7+ days away. Expand Think E1 would work. E5 and E12 are acceptable too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/11/2019 at 11:23 PM, jaydreb said: Pretty much no support for anything frozen on the GEFS before next Tues. After that it’s bombs away. Another weenie run. Expand Actually it looks like a few members get us snow looking at the precip type maps on weathermodels.com (e14, e15, e19 to name a few) for this weekend’s storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Lots of good options Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 @psuhoffman Wonder what makes him say this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/12/2019 at 12:22 AM, psuhoffman said: Lots of good options Expand Holy Jaysus! LOL! I know those snow maps are not the greatest to use, but 16/21 (including the control) give the DC and I-95 corridor >6", and most of those are big hits. Weenie, indeed. On a more serious note, I'd be curious how much of this is after next weekend (which apparently the ensembles don't support?)...I'd take it nearly all? And how much includes the other potential mid-week next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Man who the heck keeps stickin' a weenie algorithm in the FV3?? XD I swear it feels like some snow weenie weather tech somewhere is just makin' it do this on purpose, lolol I mean 18z was just over the top!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/11/2019 at 11:23 PM, jaydreb said: Pretty much no support for anything frozen on the GEFS before next Tues. After that it’s bombs away. Another weenie run. Expand That’s one heck of a Mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/12/2019 at 12:41 AM, Maestrobjwa said: Man who the heck keeps stickin' a weenie algorithm in the FV3?? XD I swear it feels like some snow weenie weather tech somewhere is just makin' it do this on purpose, lolol I mean 18z was just over the top!! Expand And looking like another hit after hour 384. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Ok I’ll ask the stupid question but the post Furturdo means what? I thought 8/1 was the holy grail of MJO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/12/2019 at 12:38 AM, frd said: @psuhoffman Wonder what makes him say this? Expand Can't recall if it was something you, or perhaps PSU, posted about his study...something about a weak stratospheric Polar vortex somehow mitigates phase 8 to not being as favorable (and you'd need to be more in phase 1)? I may not be remembering this totally correctly, and I have no idea of the merit of that study. Also, what is "ECMF"? Is that the Euro, or some other related model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Is there a parade of storms that is causing such a high ensemble mean or is that from one or 2 storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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