Maestrobjwa Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 On 2/2/2019 at 3:11 AM, Bob Chill said: There's a lot of uncertainty and mixed signals over the coming 1-2 weeks. I'm not sold either way with the nao but I do strongly believe we're getting more snow this month no matter what the NAO does. That's a far better feeling than things looking hopeless and hostile. Expand Huh...So, could we say, perhaps... Scenario 1: get the neg nao and classic coastal potential is there or Scenario 2: no neg nao help, we get more nickel and dime and events (and far from a shutout), but perhaps no classic coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 On 2/2/2019 at 3:17 AM, Maestrobjwa said: Huh...So, could we say, perhaps... Scenario 1: get the neg nao and classic coastal potential is there or Scenario 2: no neg nao help, we get more nickel and dime and events (and far from a shutout), but perhaps no classic coastal? Expand That's not what I said. The majority of our 4" storms or greater are when the AO is negative regardless of the state of the nao. The AO ranks higher than the NAO with correlation to snowfall in the midatlantic. We've had plenty of 6-12"+ storms over the years without a -nao. So I wouldn't say small events only without a -nao. Check out this article. It's actually pretty relavent to the stuff we've been talking about all year and an excellent explantion of things that all snow weenies should know. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/11/12/what-the-different-weather-patterns-might-mean-for-snow-this-winter/?utm_term=.9b5c226aedae Check this out. All our snow events happened this year with the AO negative. The large storm in Jan happened when the AO was climbing from very negative. That correlation this year isn't random. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 On 2/2/2019 at 4:06 AM, Bob Chill said: That's not what I said. The majority of our 4" storms or greater are when the AO is negative regardless of the state of the nao. The AO ranks higher than the NAO with correlation to snowfall in the midatlantic. We've had plenty of 6-12"+ storms over the years without a -nao. So I wouldn't say small events only without a -nao. Check out this article. It's actually pretty relavent to the stuff we've been talking about all year and an excellent explantion of things that all snow weenies should know. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/11/12/what-the-different-weather-patterns-might-mean-for-snow-this-winter/?utm_term=.9b5c226aedae Expand Interesting article. I shudder to think that it was written on the cusp of the "alleged December" of 2015. At you guys got a good storm in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 On 2/2/2019 at 4:16 AM, cbmclean said: Interesting article. I shudder to think that it was written on the cusp of the "alleged December" of 2015. At you guys got a good storm in January. Expand The only time the ao was meaningfully negative the whole winter was right before that storm. Same with the nao. Incredible stroke of luck during a season that couldn't have been much worse otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 On 2/2/2019 at 4:25 AM, Bob Chill said: The only time the ao was meaningfully negative the whole winter was right before that storm. Same with the nao. Incredible stroke of luck during a season that couldn't have been much worse otherwise. Expand So I think that I read on here that strong El Ninos tend to dampen the magnitude of the mjo. So I am guessing that it wasn't much of a factor that winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2019 Author Share Posted February 2, 2019 Cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 On 2/2/2019 at 4:38 AM, Ji said: Cmc Expand Fv3 gives us an ice or sleet storm fri/sat next week. Icon looks fine at the end of the run. I think the gfs might be too se ridge happy right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 On 2/2/2019 at 4:38 AM, Ji said: Cmc Expand Nice hit at 228 for you guys. Looks like it would be another another DC-south focused event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 On 2/2/2019 at 4:44 AM, cbmclean said: Nice hit at 228 for you guys. Looks like it would be another another DC-south focused event. Expand And yes I know it is an op at range. I am just learning how to use Tropical Tidbits to follow along with you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2019 Author Share Posted February 2, 2019 the 00z gfs is one of the most disastrous runs ive ever seen in any winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 On 2/2/2019 at 5:01 AM, Ji said: the 00z gfs is one of the most disastrous runs ive ever seen in any winter Expand Agree. Made the 18z look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 On 2/2/2019 at 5:01 AM, Ji said: the 00z gfs is one of the most disastrous JISASTEROUS runs ive ever seen in any winter Expand fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Bring in the FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 On 2/2/2019 at 5:05 AM, PCT_ATC said: fixed Expand The CMC will save us with our low in Ohio snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 On 2/2/2019 at 5:05 AM, PCT_ATC said: fixed Expand No, it's bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 On 2/2/2019 at 5:15 AM, CaryWx said: No, it's bad Expand GFS is far from trustworthy right now...Not worth the emotional energy, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Gfs really was god awful. Flipped the AO positive and massive -pna and that’s game over. But it’s one op run of a jumpy model lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Gefs is less god awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 On 2/2/2019 at 5:34 AM, psuhoffman said: Gfs really was god awful. Flipped the AO positive and massive -pna and that’s game over. But it’s one op run of a jumpy model lately. Expand Now we know that model needs to go to the looney bin...(at least the op does...) I mean, we ain't seen that out of anything else, right? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 On 2/2/2019 at 5:40 AM, Maestrobjwa said: Now we know that model needs to go to the looney bin...(at least the op does...) I mean, we ain't seen that out of anything else, right? Lol Expand If your asking if it’s possible sure. Anything is past day 7. But I would worry too much about it off an op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Gefs is an ambiguous conflicted mess. Some NAO blocking signal but muted. Too much SE ridge at times but that’s muted too. Pna is crappy but towards the end it seems to want to try to get an Aleutian low going. The whole thing is convoluted and adds no clarity at all good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 One thing I don’t like on the 0z gefs that isn’t Uber long range...it degraded the look for the day 10-12 threat. 18z had a much better high pressure representation. Way too much weakness and opens the door to cut on the 0z imo. 18z 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 On 2/2/2019 at 5:54 AM, psuhoffman said: One thing I don’t like on the 0z gefs that isn’t Uber long range...it degraded the look for the day 10-12 threat. 18z had a much better high pressure representation. Way too much weakness and opens the door to cut on the 0z imo. 18z 0z Expand Wanna see another forum meltdown session? Keep posting what ya don't like about the GEFS...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 On 2/2/2019 at 5:59 AM, Maestrobjwa said: Wanna see another forum meltdown session? Keep posting what ya don't like about the GEFS...lol Expand I think we are beyond the meltdown stage. I’ve seen the GFS op runs trend worse plenty of times but not all that often a lot better. These last 2 were bad. Will see what Euro looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 On 2/2/2019 at 5:59 AM, Maestrobjwa said: Wanna see another forum meltdown session? Keep posting what ya don't like about the GEFS...lol Expand The heavy hitters aren’t out yet. I’m not making any judgements on the 0z until we see the euro products later. Just analyzing the run. But I didn’t like the high pressure representation as much. But in general I think the gefs is out to lunch with the mjo and so everything is shows is suspect. On the other hand the gem and jma agrees with its mjo more than the euro so nothing is a lock. There are a lot of conflicting signals showing up and confidence is extremely low even for long range right now. But I’m not going to only point out good things each run to placate the emotionally unstable. I do point out the good. (There are still some nice snowstorms on the gefs members) I’m not debbing. But the bad is there too and people should have all the evidence and then can make their own assessments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 On 2/2/2019 at 6:09 AM, psuhoffman said: The heavy hitters aren’t out yet. I’m not making any judgements on the 0z until we see the euro products later. Just analyzing the run. But I didn’t like the high pressure representation as much. But in general I think the gefs is out to lunch with the mjo and so everything is shows is suspect. On the other hand the gem and jma agrees with its mjo more than the euro so nothing is a lock. There are a lot of conflicting signals showing up and confidence is extremely low even for long range right now. But I’m not going to only point out good things each run to placate the emotionally unstable. I do point out the good. (There are still some nice snowstorms on the gefs members) I’m not debbing. But the bad is there too and people should have all the evidence and then can make their own assessments. Expand True...Gotta take the good runs with the bad, look at the larger picture #wxmaturity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 I will admit I'm a bit nervous...feels like we are so close to something really good...and yet the scale is still tipping side-to-side...Next week may be the biggest week of tracking of the winter. I'd imagine a week from now we oughta have a pretty good idea about where we are going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Hard to believe it's going to get that warm in El Nino.. The -PNA in Days 6-12 may end up verifying as -EPO, We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 On 2/2/2019 at 6:09 AM, psuhoffman said: The heavy hitters aren’t out yet. I’m not making any judgements on the 0z until we see the euro products later. Just analyzing the run. But I didn’t like the high pressure representation as much. But in general I think the gefs is out to lunch with the mjo and so everything is shows is suspect. On the other hand the gem and jma agrees with its mjo more than the euro so nothing is a lock. There are a lot of conflicting signals showing up and confidence is extremely low even for long range right now. But I’m not going to only point out good things each run to placate the emotionally unstable. I do point out the good. (There are still some nice snowstorms on the gefs members) I’m not debbing. But the bad is there too and people should have all the evidence and then can make their own assessments. Expand dude go see a movie and yell fire lol there is a slight difference between pointing out the good and bad of a run vs what you're doing. I'll let others determine on their own. And Bristow....dude...you're world famous for op run panic...relax man...it's only snow bro. In the famous words of the comic Dom Irrera...."no offense" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 On 2/2/2019 at 11:24 AM, leesburg 04 said: dude go see a movie and yell fire lol there is a slight difference between pointing out the good and bad of a run vs what you're doing. I'll let others determine on their own. And Bristow....dude...you're world famous for op run panic...relax man...it's only snow bro. In the famous words of the comic Dom Irrera...."no offense" Expand EPS kinda makes me wanna yell fire, but I wont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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