Ji Posted February 1, 2019 Author Share Posted February 1, 2019 On 2/1/2019 at 12:02 AM, frd said: Bob, have ever seen that type of anomaly before? My friend told me about it, he is a weather weenie. To him it was a first at that range. Not sure if he was simply messing with me. Expand yes..we saw it Dec 2017 between Christmas and New Years. Didnt get a flake or a drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 On 1/31/2019 at 11:59 PM, Bob Chill said: Weeklies control would be acceptable if the fv3 verifies. On a serious note... have you looked at the 7 day mean qpf anom for week 3? That + the h5 panel = epic Expand Too bad we’ve been burned by the weeklies all winter. But, if we can get a KU pattern... maybe there is hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 This might not look like much but it’s as strong a signal for a coastal storm as you will ever see at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 On 2/1/2019 at 12:02 AM, frd said: Bob, have ever seen that type of anomaly before? My friend told me about it, he is a weather weenie. To him it was a first at that range. Not sure if he was simply messing with me. Expand I've never seen an expanse like this on the weeklies beyond week 2. Usually it's little stripes or blobs. I'd agree that this is unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 On 2/1/2019 at 12:11 AM, psuhoffman said: This might not look like much but it’s as strong a signal for a coastal storm as you will ever see at that range. Expand Really? I’ll take your word for it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 On 2/1/2019 at 12:13 AM, jaydreb said: Really? I’ll take your word for it! Expand It’s very rare to see a snow mean on the climo heavy weeklies past week 2 target the mid Atlantic over places north. If you ignore the snow in the high elevations to the north that plot clearly targets VA over places to the north. Strong storm under the blocking look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 On 2/1/2019 at 12:03 AM, snowmagnet said: Too bad we’ve been burned by the weeklies all winter. But, if we can get a KU pattern... maybe there is hope. Expand I don't think you can say we got burned. Lots of runs gave us hope but the skill for weekly and monthly guidance is really low. I'll be long dead before weather models can consistently nail anything beyond 2 weeks. I mostly track week 3 to see if the same pattern comes into focus with the global ensembles. Which hasn't really happened this year. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2019 Author Share Posted February 1, 2019 On 2/1/2019 at 12:11 AM, psuhoffman said: This might not look like much but it’s as strong a signal for a coastal storm as you will ever see at that range. Is this a joke? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Taking a closer look on the week 3 qpf shows another good sign. AN anoms in SoCal and southwest indicates the potential for a classic active southern stream/storm track. Maybe the MA gets a private hecs parade while suppression and depression sets up on Wxwatcher's house.... nah, I'm just kiddin. I hope wxwatcher gets destroyed as long as my yard gets twice as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 On 2/1/2019 at 12:17 AM, Bob Chill said: I don't think you can say we got burned. Lots of runs gave us hope but the skill for weekly and monthly guidance is really low. I'll be long dead before weather models can consistently nail anything beyond 2 weeks. I mostly track week 3 to see if the same pattern comes into focus with the global ensembles. Which hasn't really happened this year. Lol Expand Damn, glancing at 33andrain and did you see the GEM ensembles I heard from the poster ( if he is correct ) they normally dont go cold crazy like this. Something is seriously UP near this date. Unreal.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 On 2/1/2019 at 12:20 AM, Ji said: On 2/1/2019 at 12:11 AM, psuhoffman said: This might not look like much but it’s as strong a signal for a coastal storm as you will ever see at that range. Expand Is this a joke? Expand It’s not bad for hr 648. Pretty strong signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 On 2/1/2019 at 12:20 AM, Ji said: On 2/1/2019 at 12:11 AM, psuhoffman said: This might not look like much but it’s as strong a signal for a coastal storm as you will ever see at that range. Expand Is this a joke? Expand No...that is a 5 day period not 10 or 15. A 2” mean is significant at that range for that amount of time and the way it’s cenyered over VA like that is another signal. It’s rare to see that past week 2 of the weeklies ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 @frd that's the geps control run. Ens mean is ok though, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 On 2/1/2019 at 12:22 AM, frd said: Damn, glancing at 33andrain and did you see the GEM ensembles I heard from the poster ( if he is correct ) they normally dont go cold crazy like this. Something is seriously UP near this date. Unreal.... Expand That’s the control not the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 On 2/1/2019 at 12:24 AM, psuhoffman said: That’s the control not the mean Expand Thanks to you and Bob for pointing that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 It's a pretty bad model, yeah? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 HAMMER TIME !!! Here We Go ............................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 I haven’t checked this thread since this morning when I woke up. Wow, talk about a change from 14 hours ago. But what if the overnight backs down just a tad? Oh boy, get ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 On 2/1/2019 at 1:35 AM, nj2va said: I haven’t checked this thread since this morning when I woke up. Wow, talk about a change from 14 hours ago. But what if the overnight backs down just a tad? Oh boy, get ready. Expand That’s baked into the casserole. I always expect a step back from the overnight runs. Showme will bring the bad news around 6 am. Always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Looking at models at hour 648. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Hey, if HM says we’ve got a classic Urals High then who am I to disagree? All in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 So...who wants to play HM translator today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 On 2/1/2019 at 2:05 AM, Maestrobjwa said: So...who wants to play HM translator today? Expand Dude he said simply put yeesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 On 2/1/2019 at 2:05 AM, Maestrobjwa said: So...who wants to play HM translator today? Expand Split flow + blocking = Many sleepless nights in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 On 2/1/2019 at 2:31 AM, leesburg 04 said: Dude he said simply put yeesh Expand “Process to blocking will have taken place beforehand” is all I need to see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 On 2/1/2019 at 1:47 AM, jaydreb said: Hey, if HM says we’ve got a classic Urals High then who am I to disagree? All in! Expand Most of us are well versed on the impact of a Urals High. If I have said it once I’ve said it a thousand times the Urals High is the key..no one listens to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 On 2/1/2019 at 2:35 AM, BristowWx said: Most of us are well versed on the impact of a Urals High. If I have said it once I’ve said it a thousand times the Urals High is the key..no one listens to me Expand Honestly it sounds like something Chuck would say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 On 2/1/2019 at 2:37 AM, jaydreb said: Honestly it sounds like something Chuck would say. Expand or smoke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 On 2/1/2019 at 2:35 AM, BristowWx said: Most of us are well versed on the impact of a Urals High. If I have said it once I’ve said it a thousand times the Urals High is the key..no one listens to me Expand Wasnt there an old party B-movie in the 80s called "Urinals High"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 On 2/1/2019 at 2:39 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: Wasnt there an old party B-movie in the 80s called "Urinals High"? Expand Classic movie. Both the Corey’s got Oscar nods for it. Nicole Eggert has a partial nude scene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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