January 29, 2019 Snow Event and January 30th Snow Squall Discussion and Obs

[Blue Dream]

Yeah, 12z NAM is basically all rain for Philly and the surrounding burbs 

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, JMcCaughey42 said:

Yeah, 12z NAM is basically all rain for Philly and the surrounding burbs 

 

[ChescoWx]

Wxsim spot on as the light snow started at 9am - temp up to 29.9

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Wxsim spot on as the light snow started at 9am - temp up to 29.9

Wxsim says 3-5" with periods of heavy snow....NAMs say intermittent snow showers c to not even an inch up there. Going to be interesting to see if the wxsim can outdo the pro guidance. Radar looks meh. Gl.

[Newman]

NAM's and HRRR suck. Completely cutback for the Lehigh Valley area. Went from 4-6" to 1-3".

[The Iceman]

Mt holly should take down the WWA for lower bucks/ lower montgomery/mercer/philadelphia. Looking like they'll be lucky to see a few flurries on the back end. up to 28 here, I bet we hit 40 today.

[Blue Dream]

We still have our squall for tomorrow at least

[KamuSnow]

Getting some very light snow here now, 32F. Kind of a moral victory I guess, given the trends in the forecast, lol.

[Lady Di]

I'm not getting up out the cube to look! LOL  Phone says 33 and snow showers.  Future tracker on channel 6 looked meh for me later.  N&W do better.

[penndotguy]

I’m not even that jacked up for this anyway,  1-3 2-4 3-5 whatever. With that said still very light snow falling 27 Dp23

[Hurricane Agnes]

It never reached freezing here at all yesterday during the daytime after the temp fell from a high of 35 at midnight, but currently 33 now at post time and overcast.

[ChescoWx]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Wxsim says 3-5" with periods of heavy snow....NAMs say intermittent snow showers c to not even an inch up there. Going to be interesting to see if the wxsim can outdo the pro guidance. Radar looks meh. Gl.

Remember it will come down to reality next forecast as it is simply a blend of the NAM/GFS - so go with the pro guidance

[ChescoWx]

Snow picking up here in NW Chesco all surfaces are covered Temp 31.0 /RH 86%/ DP 27.3 Wind SE 3 gusts to 9mph

[Hurricane Agnes]

Just started getting some mood flakes.  Temp still 33 but dp has gone up to 21.

[hazwoper]

flurries here in Wrightstown, PA

[Rtd208]

Light snow falling here, temp 31

[JTA66]

Seeing a couple of flurries here too. Sticking with my .75" call for now.

[Hurricane Agnes]

Mood flakes have graduated to pixie dust that is starting to moisten the asphalt a bit (zero stickage). Temp up to 34.

[ChescoWx]

12z GFS pretty similar to 6z general 3" to 4" across NW Chesco....NAM vs GFS

[hazwoper]

1 minute ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

12z GFS pretty similar to 6z general 3" to 4" across NW Chesco....NAM vs GFS

was just about to post this....GFS says NAM is out to lunch in extreme SEPA

[Birds~69]

21 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Seeing a couple of flurries here too. Sticking with my .75" call for now.

Same....

[hazwoper]

I am siding with the GFS on this one.  It is clear from the radar returns and reports from the surface that the NAMs depiction of moisture holding off until after 20Z in SEPA is incorrect and that the GFS seems to have much better hold on the current the current conditions.  If moisture held off as long as depicted on the NAM I could see the surface temps rising to the point where ptype would be an issue here.  Just not seeing that right now and based on the slug of moisture coming from the SW right now the NAMs output is suspect to say the least.  Time will tell......

[ChescoWx]

Here in NW Chester County PA - Just a few flakes with a lull in precip temp up to 33.7 - looks like another band moving this way from  SW 

[Ralph Wiggum]

29 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

12z GFS pretty similar to 6z general 3" to 4" across NW Chesco....NAM vs GFS

And Redsky and I miss out completely along the coast. Que cera

[Birdbean]

Steady light snow here in most of Lancaster Co. with at least a dusting on the ground.

[The Iceman]

Above freezing in Trenton, 34F. DP up to 26. Both NAM and GFS have us getting to the low 40s by 18z. Going to need to see some big time warming in the next hour for that to verify

[KamuSnow]

18 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Above freezing in Trenton, 34F. DP up to 26. Both NAM and GFS have us getting to the low 40s by 18z. Going to need to see some big time warming in the next hour for that to verify

Well, it's up to 38F here....

[Newman]

Yeah the HRRR is actually completely off with current radar. Precip is filling back in and falling nicely here, but the HRRR says we shouldn't see anything until 3pm. We could pick up an inch or two until 3pm if the current rates hold.

[Hurricane Agnes]

9 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Well, it's up to 38F here....

38 here too and it's overcast (rain/snow line steadily moving in from the SE).

 

[penndotguy]

9 minutes ago, Newman said:

Yeah the HRRR is actually completely off with current radar. Precip is filling back in and falling nicely here, but the HRRR says we shouldn't see anything until 3pm. We could pick up an inch or two until 3pm if the current rates hold.

yeah the heaviest so far here to