January 29, 2019 Snow Event and January 30th Snow Squall Discussion and Obs

[ChescoWx]

Latest Wxsim with 6z data now has snow arriving by rush hour tomorrow morning in the NW Philly burbs. Total snow accumulation is now estimated between 4" to 6" before ending by 10pm tomorrow night. The current text forecast is below.

WXSIM text forecast for East Nantmeal, initialized at  7:00 AM Jan 28, 2019
 _______________________________________________________________________________
 

 Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening, becoming cloudy after midnight. A slight
 chance of snow after midnight. Low 27. Wind east-southeast around 2 mph in the
 evening, becoming 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.
 Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Snow
 accumulation about a quarter inch.
 
 Tuesday: Dense overcast. Snow likely in the morning, then a mix of snow and rain
 likely in the afternoon. High 33. Wind chill ranging from 22 to 27. Wind
 southeast around 6 mph in the morning, becoming south-southwest in the
 afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent)
 mostly between half an inch and one inch. Snow accumulation 3 to 5 inches.
 
 Tuesday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming fair to partly cloudy after
 midnight. Patchy light fog in the evening. A chance of snow in the evening, then
 a slight chance of snow after midnight. Low 20. Wind west-northwest around 7
 mph, gusting to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation
 (liquid equivalent) mostly around a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about an
 inch.

[The Iceman]

may wanna add Possible Squall Line in the title since it's the only thing us around 95 and S have to look forward to... don't think we'll see anything more than a coating.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Paul check your PM

[Ralph Wiggum]

If there was a model run that showed pretty much what I'm feeling attm the 12z NAM nailed my thoughts. Maybe a little more accum far N and W into the LV tho imo

[The Iceman]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

If there was a model run that showed pretty much what I'm feeling attm the 12z NAM nailed my thoughts. Maybe a little more accum far N and W into the LV tho imo

Looks about right. Meso's are showing it a bit cooler tomorrow so everyone in PA flips around 18z. They seem to always be too cool though so just noise at this point. Above map is what I'm expecting and if I get more than a coating than it'll be a nice suprise.

[Blue Dream]

Just now, The Iceman said:

Looks about right. Meso's are showing it a bit cooler tomorrow so everyone in PA flips around 18z. They seem to always be too cool though so just noise at this point. Above map is what I'm expecting and if I get more than a coating than it'll be a nice suprise.

 

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

If there was a model run that showed pretty much what I'm feeling attm the 12z NAM nailed my thoughts. Maybe a little more accum far N and W into the LV tho imo

Would be nice to get down an at least an inch or two before the cold sets in...make it feel like real winter for a few days

[The Iceman]

hug it and don't let go

 

[Blue Dream]

GFS looks meh for areas in and around 95, but I guess I'll take an inch

Areas to the N&W look pretty solid

[ChescoWx]

WXSIM with GFS/NAM 12z data is rock solid with 4" to 6" forecast - only difference is quite a bit colder this run than at 6z - has snow starting by dawn tomorrow and getting moderate by 8am with visibility forecasted down to 0.5 miles. Then S+ by 1130am with visibility under 0.2 miles. Snow should be all over by 10pm tomorrow night

WXSIM text forecast for East Nantmeal, initialized at 12:00 PM Jan 28, 2019
 _______________________________________________________________________________
 
 This afternoon: Partly cloudy. High 32. Wind east-northeast around 2 mph.
 
 Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening, becoming cloudy after midnight. A slight
 chance of snow after midnight. Low 23. Wind southeast around 2 mph in the
 evening, becoming 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.
 Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Little or
 no snow accumulation expected.
 
 Tuesday: Dense overcast. Snow likely. High 31. Wind southeast around 7 mph in
 the morning, becoming south around 3 mph in the afternoon. Chance of
 precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half
 an inch. Snow accumulation 3 to 5 inches.
 
 Tuesday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming fair to partly cloudy after
 midnight. Patchy light fog. A chance of snow. Low 20. Wind west-northwest around
 6 mph, gusting to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation
 (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation
 about an inch.

[RedSky]

Like i said last night can you trust the euro and bam 12hrs later a different run cuts qpf in half, bad for folks off to the SW and still ok for the NW crowd.

It's a dismal state of affairs with even the euro near garbage in the short range, maybe they dig up old code from several years ago and un-upgrade it.

 

 

[JTA66]

.75" per event seems to be the magic number imby since the Nov blizzard, so that's where my bar is set for tomorrow.

[hazwoper]

WWA posted

[ChescoWx]

WXSIM with 18z data trended down with qpf to now only 0.56" of liquid and 3" to 4" of snow

Tuesday: Dense overcast. A chance of snow in the morning, then snow likely in
 the afternoon. High 32. Wind southeast around 5 mph in the morning, becoming
 south-southwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.
 Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between a quarter and half an inch.
 Snow accumulation 2 to 3 inches.
 
 Tuesday night: Dense overcast in the evening, becoming fair to partly cloudy
 after midnight. Patchy light fog in the evening. A chance of snow in the
 evening. Low 20. Wind northwest around 6 mph, gusting to 15 mph. Chance of
 precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a
 quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation about an inch.

[KamuSnow]

Whatever we get tomorrow, it can't be a bad thing that it's 25F here at 7:30 and my local forecast low for tonight is 27F. No doubt clouds later on will bring it up, but it is good and cold out there.

[Redmorninglight]

Looking forward to a few days of solid cold and a few snow chances, regardless of how light the accumulations may be. 

[RedSky]

0z euro spread the white a little better eastern sections, locally the 1.2"-1.6" is like the biggest baddest snow of the winter giddyup

 

[SP]

0z euro spread the white a little better eastern sections, locally the 1.2"-1.6" is like the biggest baddest snow of the winter giddyup
 

To broom or not to broom......that is the question.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[KamuSnow]

Nothing but virga from this area of green that moved through. Could see snow in the headlights of a couple of planes that were making their approach to PHL (west to east), but nothing at ground level. Currently 27F here, DP 20F.

[Hurricane Agnes]

Have radar returns showing up overhead but nothing but virga here as well.  DP is 12 so doesn't seem like enough to wring anything out.  Temp is 27.

 

[geeter1]

Streets and sidewalks already white here. Temp 21 Degrees. 

[ChescoWx]

Latest WXSIM with 6z data slightly upped snow amounts across NW Chester County PA - snow arrives by 9am with moderate snow by noon and heavy snow by 3pm - all over by 9pm with 3" to 5" total

WXSIM text forecast for East Nantmeal, initialized at  7:00 AM Jan 29, 2019
 _______________________________________________________________________________
 
 Today: Dense overcast. A chance of snow in the morning, then snow likely in the
 afternoon. High 32. Wind east-southeast around 5 mph in the morning, becoming
 south-southwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.
 Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow accumulation
 2 to 4 inches.
 
 Tonight: Cloudy in the evening, becoming fair to partly cloudy after midnight.
 Patchy light fog. A chance of snow in the evening. Low 19. Wind west around 7
 mph, gusting to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation
 (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation
 about an inch.

[JTA66]

Virga, 27F.

[sibbley]

Very light snow, 21F, DP 14F, RH 73.

[Newman]

Been lightly snowing all morning. Solid coating on everything including roads. 

[The Iceman]

Virga on the doorstep. 27F/18 DP. Not expecting anything over an inch here. Most likely a coating, possibly nothing.

[The Iceman]

mt holly cut totals for the 95 corridor and slightly NW. Seems like they think the BL is going to be too warm on the backside. shocker I know, since this is what happens 99% of the time in these events.

[ChescoWx]

NW Chester County PA - A few flakes now and then but mainly moderate virga 

Temp 29.5

RH 81%

DP 24.4

Wind E 2 mph

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

mt holly cut totals for the 95 corridor and slightly NW. Seems like they think the BL is going to be too warm on the backside. shocker I know, since this is what happens 99% of the time in these events.

You will likely see more from the squall line tomorrow imho. These anafront situations often have underperformer written all over them.

[penndotguy]

light snow coating so far

[Hurricane Agnes]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

You will likely see more from the squall line tomorrow imho.

Yup.  Agree.  Squalls can really produce.  Will be interesting to see if it will meet the criteria of the new "Snow Squall Warning" in the I-95 corridor.