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February 2019 Discussion


Hoosier
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RECORD EVENT REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
240 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2019

...RECORD HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AT FORT WAYNE...

A RECORD HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 40 DEGREES WAS SET AT FORT 
WAYNE YESTERDAY, 4 FEB 2019. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 38 IN 1928.
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This isn't my subforum, but I did find it interesting that the 0z NAM and 0z NAM3K are trying to bring lower 60s dewpoints into southern and central Ohio for Thursday, along with small amounts of SBCAPE.  The model is also showing the moist air in southern IL and southern IN as well, though it penetrates further north in OH and at a more ideal time of day (afternoon). Some of the earlier NAM runs had the same or similar dewpoints reaching southern and central Ohio.  Plenty of helicity too.  That said, I understand that the NAM models can be a bit overdone sometimes.

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1 hour ago, BrandonC_TX said:

This isn't my subforum, but I did find it interesting that the 0z NAM and 0z NAM3K are trying to bring lower 60s dewpoints into southern and central Ohio for Thursday, along with small amounts of SBCAPE.  The model is also showing the moist air in southern IL and southern IL as well, though it penetrates further north in OH and at a more ideal time of day (afternoon). Some of the earlier NAM runs had the same or similar dewpoints reaching southern and central Ohio.  Plenty of helicity too.  That said, I understand that the NAM models can be a bit overdone sometimes.

Yeah I noticed that. That seems to be the only model not socking the entire area in with clouds through the day. Given this is such a potent system dynamically (500 mb jet in excess of 120 kts on Thursday), there's definitely going to be strong forcing for ascent over a large area, i.e. clouds/precip, but I do wonder whether the dry punch aloft might be stronger than forecasted by some of the global models and sneak in there/allow some insolation for a time. Should that happen, the dewpoints are sufficient for a severe threat and the shear is obviously off the charts (70-80+ kts of bulk shear) if anything can organize.

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Was without power for 18 hours following the historic ice storm.  Finally broke down and ordered a generator.  Felt a little defeated since I like the remote lifestyle, lack of certain conveniences and stuff like that.  oh well.

Ended up with nearly 3/4" of ice and a couple inches of snow at the end.  Trees are super weighted down and it's only a matter of time before the power goes back out.

Point has 11-18" of snow/wind.  A snowstorm following a severe ice storm hasn't ever been recorded (locally) in the UP.  Too bad my generator wont be here until Friday!

I've never seen a situation report before, either.

https://www.weather.gov/media/mqt/sitreport/SitReport1.pdf

 

download.thumb.png.87f5fb92bec0f62db3af917289f75e96.png

 

 

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1 hour ago, weatherbo said:

Was without power for 18 hours following the historic ice storm.  Finally broke down and ordered a generator.  Felt a little defeated since I like the remote lifestyle, lack of certain conveniences and stuff like that.  oh well.

Ended up with nearly 3/4" of ice and a couple inches of snow at the end.  Trees are super weighted down and it's only a matter of time before the power goes back out.

Point has 11-18" of snow/wind.  A snowstorm following a severe ice storm hasn't ever been recorded (locally) in the UP.  Too bad my generator wont be here until Friday!

I've never seen a situation report before, either.

https://www.weather.gov/media/mqt/sitreport/SitReport1.pdf

 

download.thumb.png.87f5fb92bec0f62db3af917289f75e96.png

 

 

Welcome to the good life, I love my generator and would not be without one ever again. Going 3 days without power during Christmas with 20 people in your house will change your mind in a hurry. I gassed mine up yesterday as I am little concerned about a .25 of ice with 40 mph winds tomorrow for my area. 

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ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL  
947 AM CST WED FEB 6 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A  
  
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
  WEST CENTRAL WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...  
  NORTHEASTERN GRUNDY COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 1245 PM CST  
  
* AT 942 AM CST, EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLASH   
  FLOODING OCCURRING DUE TO RAPID BREAK-UP OF AN ICE JAM ON THE   
  KANKAKEE RIVER. EVACUATIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNDERWAY AND MULTIPLE   
  ROADWAYS ARE FLOODED.  

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That is a strong high being progged to move through the Lakes this weekend.  It's a bit more common to see one of that intensity farther west or north.  

The all-time high pressure reading for Chicago is 1049.1", which will probably be safe, but not by much.

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

That is a strong high being progged to move through the Lakes this weekend.  It's a bit more common to see one of that intensity farther west or north.  

The all-time high pressure reading for Chicago is 1049.1", which will probably be safe, but not by much.

Then again, we have the ICON showing this.  Imagine if we had a high like this last Thursday morning.  

icon_mslp_wind_ncus_26.thumb.png.c75a58fbe22a5cdd32b8053258ce804d.png

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All of the ice from last night has remained on the trees.  Thought it would warm up today and melt it all off, but temps were stubborn.  Temps may rise above freezing later tonight, so the precip may be more of a regular rain event, and should also melt off some of the ice still clinging to the trees.  

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Just now, Indystorm said:

Severe t storm warning in an ice storm warning area in sw Missouri at present.  Don't see that every day.

St. Clair MO-
848 PM CST WED FEB 6 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CST
FOR NORTHWESTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY...

At 847 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southeast of
Appleton City, or 17 miles north of El Dorado Springs, moving
northeast at 55 mph. Nickel size hail has been reported with this
storm from Nevada to Schell City.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

 

The 3 closest observing stations are all 28/28.

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20 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Was without power for 18 hours following the historic ice storm.  Finally broke down and ordered a generator.  Felt a little defeated since I like the remote lifestyle, lack of certain conveniences and stuff like that.  oh well.

Ended up with nearly 3/4" of ice and a couple inches of snow at the end.  Trees are super weighted down and it's only a matter of time before the power goes back out.

Point has 11-18" of snow/wind.  A snowstorm following a severe ice storm hasn't ever been recorded (locally) in the UP.  Too bad my generator wont be here until Friday!

I've never seen a situation report before, either.

https://www.weather.gov/media/mqt/sitreport/SitReport1.pdf

 

download.thumb.png.87f5fb92bec0f62db3af917289f75e96.png

 

 

 

Sucks you had to go through that. Hopefully that's the last of the outages. I reckon ice storms are a pretty rare event up there?

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1156 AM EST THU FEB 7 2019

INC083-071715-
/O.CON.KIND.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190207T1715Z/
Knox IN-
1156 AM EST THU FEB 7 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 PM EST FOR CENTRAL
KNOX COUNTY...
    
At 1155 AM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Vincennes, moving northeast at 50 mph.

 

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Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1118 AM CST THU FEB 7 2019

The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  East central Gibson County in southwestern Indiana...
  Pike County in southwestern Indiana...

* Until 1145 AM CST.
    
* At 1118 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
  tornado was located near Winslow, or near Oakland City, moving
  northeast at 55 mph.

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.....And a third warning. 65 MPH in a QLCS. That would be fun to try see/chase/keep up with.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1237 PM EST THU FEB 7 2019

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
  SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA...
  NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 100 PM EST.

* AT 1237 PM EST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED 13 MILES EAST OF BLOOMFIELD, OR 13 MILES
  NORTHWEST OF BEDFORD, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.
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