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February 2019 Discussion


Hoosier
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25 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Sam Lashley at IWX had to do some digging, but he posted some numbers that point out how anomalous the wind event was for FWA. Between 1/1/1948 and 2/24/2019, 54 observations have reported a wind gust of 50 knots or greater. Of the 54, 16 occurred on the 24th (30%). That's out of 905,000 observations.

The highest reading yesterday was 56 knots.

Would be curious to know how many of those were convective gusts and how many were synoptic.

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1 hour ago, Stebo said:

The system for Tuesday night into Wednesday, starting to really look good for Lower Michigan, could even be close the highest storm total for DTW if it ticks a bit south.

I'm hoping for a tick South. Not sure about it being the highest storm of the year though, so for thats 5.8" on January 19th.

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1 hour ago, wxman_ind said:

Indy's peak wind of 66 mph was the strongest non-thunderstorm gust since April 1988

I would like to give a great shout out to you guys and gals and IND for nailing that warning/advisory. I-70 was the dividing line with 60mph between Indy and Kokomo and 50mph from Indy to Bloomington. Thanks for all the hard work and keeping us safe with your timely and accurate forecasts.

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1 hour ago, Toronto4 said:

Snowfall warning issued by Environment Canada for the Golden Horseshoe region (Toronto-Hamilton-Niagara) for 6” of snow tomorrow. Some spots could get up to 8”.

Going to be interesting if we get an east wind streamer to develop off Lake Ontario. Plenty cold enough with delta-t's in the 16-18c range, but as usual with east wind, a lot of shear.  If we get some appreciable LEnS, I could see some 8" (even 8" PLUS) amounts, locally.

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15 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Going to be interesting if we get an east wind streamer to develop off Lake Ontario. Plenty cold enough with delta-t's in the 16-18c range, but as usual with east wind, a lot of shear.  If we get some appreciable LEnS, I could see some 8" (even 8" PLUS) amounts, locally.

Both NAM and RGEM are developing a LES band through the city of Toronto tomorrow morning into the afternoon hours under an ESE flow. Should be very interesting.

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3 minutes ago, blizzardof96 said:

Both NAM and RGEM are developing a LES band through the city of Toronto tomorrow morning into the afternoon hours under an ESE flow. Should be very interesting.

Too bad the synoptic is such a fast mover.  Looks like we only get 6-9 quality hours of accums.  Otherwise, this could have been something a bit more prolific.

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16 minutes ago, snowcaine said:

I'm just not seeing it for this system. Too much shear to really get good lake enhancement in my opinion. Should move through the area relatively quickly. I'd go with 3-5" for Toronto personally.

That's pretty close to what I'm thinking (4-6").  I'm not forecasting widespread 8" amounts.  Just a few sweet spots. 

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33 minutes ago, Toronto4 said:

That band was super intense. As of 10am, Pearson Airport (YYZ) has reported 3” (8 cm) of snow.

Sounds about right.  It was probably dropping 2"/hr rates.  Now we're back to run of the mill -SN here in the west end but that band is stalled out on the Scarborough/Pickering line.  Candidate for our jackpot zone.

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25 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Even the lighter snow is still big flaked, and accumulating relatively efficiently.

Yep ratios are very high with this one. I figured we'd be on the cold side of the prime denditic growth zone and get pixie dust as seems to be the case with clippers in these situations but not the case at all. 6-8" seems reasonable at this stage for most folks. Seems to be 3-5" across the GTA already.

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Got 1.9" here, but it was sugary powder, not fluff, so with the lower ratios it was quite slippery and nice to see a winter wonderland return. Its a nice wintry day but Ill be glad to see Feb end. After a great 2nd half of Jan, Feb has seen almost every snow event locally hit areas to my north harder, and we have had an ice storm and wind storm to boot.

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1 hour ago, snowcaine said:

Yep ratios are very high with this one. I figured we'd be on the cold side of the prime denditic growth zone and get pixie dust as seems to be the case with clippers in these situations but not the case at all. 6-8" seems reasonable at this stage for most folks. Seems to be 3-5" across the GTA already.

Closing in on 5" here and pouring.  LES band is shifting south through the city again.  Yeah, 6-8" totals look like a clinch, maybe a touch more if the synoptic doesn't wind down too quickly.

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