Hoosier Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Starts cold and then big moderation. In fact, could be an epic change. As an example, the 00z GFS has a 75+ degree turnaround in parts of IL from Thursday to Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Hopefully we can get a nice severe/tornado event so we can say we had a tornado outbreak at the beginning and end of winter. Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Will change a lot im sure but the euro sure has an ice storm type look with a strong occluding low to the west and cold high pressure building in from the north in the 7 to 9 day range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 The first half of the month looks to be reasonably active as the trough axis moves a further west after this cold outbreak. Probably a little more potential for a bigger snowstorm than the last few weeks, and a lot more temperature variability too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Let me just put this right here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 16 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Let me just put this right here... Ugh. Chilly rain (although I'm sure it will actually feel great after the next 48 hours) and probably not quite warm/moist enough in the warm sector for chase-worthy severe. GFS actually does build some CAPE though so we'll wait and see. In any event, some areas could see thunderstorms less than a week after -50 wind chills. That's nothing short of insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 On 1/29/2019 at 9:42 PM, Chicago Storm said: Let me just put this right here... Some places might have nearly 80 degree swing in the matter of 4-5 days. Insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 I doubt that would verify with current glacier pack. Would be foggy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 25 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: I doubt that would verify with current glacier pack. Would be foggy though. Was just gonna say, the fog late this week/ early next week is gonna be pretty bad at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Month looks to start with record cold, then a crazy warm up, then back to cold again. Here comes the rollercoaster again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 What the actual heck?! FWA beat their record low today (1/30) by 5°, -13° and may go lower before midnight. Old record -8° 1966. Tomorrow (1/31) should at least tie at -18° (1963). The predicted high for Monday (2/4)? 56° (and may go higher). 110 year old record 58° (1909) My sinuses are going to explode. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 LOT mentioning the possibility of thunder in their long term AFD this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2019 Author Share Posted January 30, 2019 LOT has 45 at ORD on Sunday. With a high of -10 today, that would be a 55 degree swing in high temps in 4 days. My cursory look at the previous high end arctic outbreaks for Chicago shows that none of them had a 55 degree rebound in high temperatures in just 4 days. I'm not sure what the biggest change in highs is for a 4 day period as something like a high of 5 followed by a high of 62 could have happened (or vice versa) at some point. Would take a while to figure out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 15 minutes ago, Hoosier said: LOT has 45 at ORD on Sunday. With a high of -10 today, that would be a 55 degree swing in high temps in 4 days. My cursory look at the previous high end arctic outbreaks for Chicago shows that none of them had a 55 degree rebound in high temperatures in just 4 days. I'm not sure what the biggest change in highs is for a 4 day period as something like a high of 5 followed by a high of 62 could have happened (or vice versa) at some point. Would take a while to figure out. Since 11/1/1958, this is what I see on a four-day swing for ORD: #1 1/31/1989 (65) - > 2/4/1989 (7) | 58 #2 1/2/2004 (61) - > 1/6/2004 (9) | 52 #3T 2/2/1965 (0) - > 2/6/1965 (49) | 49 #3T 2/3/1996 (-5) - > 2/7/1996 (44) | 49 #3T 12/29/1984 (63) - > 1/2/1985 (14) | 49 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2019 Author Share Posted January 30, 2019 13 minutes ago, KeenerWx said: Since 11/1/1958, this is what I see on a four-day swing for ORD: #1 1/31/1989 (65) - > 2/4/1989 (7) | 58 #2 1/2/2004 (61) - > 1/6/2004 (9) | 52 #3T 2/2/1965 (0) - > 2/6/1965 (49) | 49 #3T 2/3/1996 (-5) - > 2/7/1996 (44) | 49 #3T 12/29/1984 (63) - > 1/2/1985 (14) | 49 Nice. Is that from xmacis and if so, how'd you do that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 12z Euro run would suggest actually a pretty substantial severe threat next Tuesday in IL/vicinity with upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints present and very strong shear. That would be an incredible flip from today/tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just now, andyhb said: 12z Euro run would suggest actually a pretty substantial severe threat next Tuesday in IL/vicinity with upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints present and very strong shear. That would be an incredible flip from today/tomorrow. It’s almost unfathomable at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: It’s almost unfathomable at this point Some of those places would have nearly an 80 degree dewpoint swing in the matter of 6 days, even 60 degree swing in 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 13 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Nice. Is that from xmacis and if so, how'd you do that? Pulled raw daily data out of MRCC cli-MATE into excel & did quick absolute value calculations on varied time periods - e.g., 2 day, 3 day, 4 day. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Looking like I'm beginning the month with some rain this weekend. If this wouldn't happen that would be great. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2019 Author Share Posted January 31, 2019 There has been a complete flip in the anomalies on the CFS in recent days. The more recent look certainly runs a higher risk of some mild ups but it's a wetter pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 After having this latest bout of cold, I'm ready for warmer temperatures. Rolling the dice on storms should also make it a fun interesting month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 I do like the CFS trend of putting me right in the transition zone so maybe I can get in on some storm tracks for once. Also would like to have an insane roller coaster where the warmth coming next week doubles and I hit double digit positives and then some huge storm rolls in when the goodness ends. I keep daydreaming about March 2, 2012 for some reason today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 If we keep getting these huge temp swings mid Feb into March and keep the current storm track pattern the atmosphere is going to snap in this sub at some point. It just has to (Insert my weenie wish lol). I'm ready for snow>tornadoes in 72 hours 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Not that I fully believe it, but the ECMWF/GFS/NAM melt just about the entire snowpack around here by Monday evening. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: Not that I fully believe it, but the ECMWF/GFS/NAM melt just about the entire snowpack around here by Monday evening. That would be quite amazing. Had 15" on the ground this morning, and after this clipper we will likely be over 18" of very dense snow pack. Well, the bottom 60-70% is very dense at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 I have 59 in my forecast on Monday. We had a windchill of -47 36 hours ago. What a wild fooking pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 We have a real legit chance of breaking the record of 59 set back in 1909. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Awoke to a fresh snow cover this morning in downtown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Starting to look interesting next Wednesday-Thursday. Still 5-6 days away but could be a pretty big ice storm for someone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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