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February 2019 Discussion


Hoosier

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16 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Let me just put this right here...

GFSFLT2_sfc_temp_147.png.8942daf132352a1268c0f2eb0497556c.png

Ugh. Chilly rain (although I'm sure it will actually feel great after the next 48 hours) and probably not quite warm/moist enough in the warm sector for chase-worthy severe.

GFS actually does build some CAPE though so we'll wait and see. In any event, some areas could see thunderstorms less than a week after -50 wind chills. That's nothing short of insane.

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What the actual heck?!

FWA beat their record low today (1/30) by 5°, -13° and may go lower before midnight. Old record -8° 1966. Tomorrow (1/31) should at least tie at -18° (1963).

The predicted high for Monday (2/4)? 56° (and may go higher). 110 year old record 58° (1909)

My sinuses are going to explode.

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LOT has 45 at ORD on Sunday.  With a high of -10 today, that would be a 55 degree swing in high temps in 4 days.  My cursory look at the previous high end arctic outbreaks for Chicago shows that none of them had a 55 degree rebound in high temperatures in just 4 days.  I'm not sure what the biggest change in highs is for a 4 day period as something like a high of 5 followed by a high of 62 could have happened (or vice versa) at some point.  Would take a while to figure out.

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15 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

LOT has 45 at ORD on Sunday.  With a high of -10 today, that would be a 55 degree swing in high temps in 4 days.  My cursory look at the previous high end arctic outbreaks for Chicago shows that none of them had a 55 degree rebound in high temperatures in just 4 days.  I'm not sure what the biggest change in highs is for a 4 day period as something like a high of 5 followed by a high of 62 could have happened (or vice versa) at some point.  Would take a while to figure out.

Since 11/1/1958, this is what I see on a four-day swing for ORD:

#1 1/31/1989 (65) - > 2/4/1989 (7) | 58

#2 1/2/2004 (61) - > 1/6/2004 (9) | 52

#3T 2/2/1965 (0) - > 2/6/1965 (49) | 49

#3T 2/3/1996 (-5) - > 2/7/1996 (44) | 49

#3T 12/29/1984 (63) - > 1/2/1985 (14) | 49

 

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13 minutes ago, KeenerWx said:

Since 11/1/1958, this is what I see on a four-day swing for ORD:

#1 1/31/1989 (65) - > 2/4/1989 (7) | 58

#2 1/2/2004 (61) - > 1/6/2004 (9) | 52

#3T 2/2/1965 (0) - > 2/6/1965 (49) | 49

#3T 2/3/1996 (-5) - > 2/7/1996 (44) | 49

#3T 12/29/1984 (63) - > 1/2/1985 (14) | 49

 

Nice. Is that from xmacis and if so, how'd you do that?

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I do like the CFS trend of putting me right in the transition zone so maybe I can get in on some storm tracks for once. Also would like to have an insane roller coaster where the warmth coming next week doubles and I hit double digit positives and then some huge storm rolls in when the goodness ends. I keep daydreaming about March 2, 2012 for some reason today.

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1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

Not that I fully believe it, but the ECMWF/GFS/NAM melt just about the entire snowpack around here by Monday evening.

That would be quite amazing.  Had 15" on the ground this morning, and after this clipper we will likely be over 18" of very dense snow pack.  Well, the bottom 60-70% is very dense at least.

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