February 2019 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

For Feb 2019, predict the temperature anomalies relative to 1981-2010 normal values for

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

... deadline is 06z Friday Feb 1st ... usual late penalties apply ...

Good luck !

[Tom]

DCA:  -0.5

NYC: -0.5

BOS: -0.6

ORD: -1.1

ATL: -0.4

IAH: +0.1

DEN: +0.3

PHX: +0.2

SEA: +0.5

Philly

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.0     0.5      0.0        0.0      1.0    1.0       1.0     1.0     0.5  

[wxallannj]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.4     1.2      0.7       1.0     2.1    1.5       0.2     0.7     1.0  

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.4     1.0      1.1       0.3     2.4     2.7      -0.3     0.3    -1.3  

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.2     -0.2    -0.3      -1.7     1.5     0.6     -0.5     -0.3    -3.7  

 

NYC subforum

[wxdude64]

DCA: +0.7

NYC: +0.6

BOS: +0.3

ORD: -1.3

ATL: +1.4

IAH: +1.1

DEN: -1.4

PHX: +0.8

SEA: +1.9

[Roger Smith]

+3.5 _ +3.5 _ +3.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +4.0 ___ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ --3.5

[bkviking]

DCA: +0.8

NYC: +1.0

BOS: +1.0

ORD: -1.0

ATL: +0.6

IAH: +1.4

DEN: -1.0

PHX: +1.5

SEA: +0.7

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA: +0.2

NYC: +0.7

BOS: +0.1

ORD: -0.3

ATL: +1.8

IAH: +0.5

DEN: -0.3

PHX: +0.1

SEA: -1.1

[Stebo]

DCA: +1.7

NYC: +1.2

BOS: +1.0

ORD: -1.3

ATL: +1.4

IAH: +1.7

DEN: -1.8

PHX: -1.8

SEA: -1.7

[Rjay]

DCA:  -1.0

NYC: -1.0

BOS: -1.0

ORD: -1.0

ATL: -1.0

IAH:  +0.5

DEN: -1.0

PHX: -0.5

SEA: -1.0

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts February 2019

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

 

Roger Smith _______________ +3.5 _+3.5 _+3.0 __+2.0 _+2.5 _+4.0 ___+1.5 _+1.5 _--3.5

Stebo ____ (-3%) __________ +1.7 _+1.2 _+1.0 __--1.3 _+1.4 _+1.7 ___--1.8 _--1.8 _--1.7

wxallannj __________________+1.4 _+1.2 _+0.7 __+1.0 _+2.1 _+1.5 ___+0.2 _+0.7 _+1.0

RodneyS __________________ +1.4 _+1.0 _+1.1 __+0.3 _+2.4 _+2.7 ___--0.3_+0.3 _--1.3

DonSutherland.1 ___________ +1.2 _--0.2 _--0.3 __--1.7 _+1.5 _+0.6 ___--0.5 _--0.3 _--3.7

Scotty Lightning ____________ +1.0 _+0.5 __0.0 ___0.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___+1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5

 

___ Consensus _____________ +1.0 _+0.7 _+0.3 __--1.0 _+1.4 _+1.1 ___--0.3 _+0.3 _--1.0

 

BKViking __________________ +0.8 _+1.0 _+1.0 __--1.0 _+0.6 _+1.4 ___--1.0 _+1.5 _+0.7

wxdude64 _________________ +0.7 _+0.6 _+0.3 __--1.3 _+1.4 _+1.1 ___--1.4 _+0.8 _+1.9

hudsonvalley21 _____________+0.2 _+0.7 _+0.1 __--0.3 _+1.8 _+0.5 ___--0.3 _+0.1 _--1.1

___ Normal _________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

Tom ______________________--0.5 _--0.5 _--0.6 __--1.1 _--0.4 _+0.1 ___+0.3 _+0.2 _+0.5

RJay _____ (-3%) __________ --1.0 _--1.0 _--1.0 __--1.0 _--1.0 _+0.5 ___--1.0 _--0.5 _--1.0

[Roger Smith]

Snowfall contest 2018-2019

... updates through Mar 6th ... further updates only in March contest thread.

... forecasts marked in red have been passed by actual snowfall.

 

Table of departures (red can increase, black can decrease)

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

 

Snowfall to date ________  16.9__20.5__26.5___41.5 __29.4 _113.2___32.1 __20.2 __89.1 

 

RodneyS ________________4.4 __ 4.5*_ 11.0*___0.5 _ 14.1 __24.2 ___ 20.4 __15.7__16.1 ___ 110.8 (1)

Roger Smith _____________1.1*__ 7.5 _ 18.5 __ 11.0 __ 6.1*_ 23.2 ___28.4 __10.2 __11.1 ___ 117.0 (2)

Stebo __________________ 3.7 _ 12.8 _ 27.0 ___ 8.0 _ 17.6 __26.2 ___ 4.9* __ 9.5 __ 7.9 ___ 118.5 (3)

hudsonvalley21 __________ 5.1 _ 19.5 _ 35.5 ___ 5.5 _ 18.8 __11.7 ___ 18.9 __14.5 __ 1.1 ___ 130.5 (4)

wxdude64 ______________ 6.0 _ 20.1 _ 33.2 ____2.6 _ 16.5 __14.8 ___ 35.5 __13.5 __ 1.2 ___ 143.3 (5)

 

___ Consensus __________ 7.1 _ 24.0 _ 34.4 ___ 4.0 _ 15.3 _ 20.6 ___ 26.4 _ 13.8 __ 0.3*___ 145.8 ((6))

 

DonSutherland.1 ________ 15.6 _ 29.5 _ 31.0 ___ 7.0 _ 24.1 __ 3.2*__ 19.9 __16.7 __ 3.9 ___ 150.8 (6)

dmillz25 ________________ 7.1 _ 32.5 _ 40.5 ___ 1.5*__8.3 _ 28.2 ___24.9 __15.2 __ 0.9 ___ 159.0 (7)

wxallannj _______________ 8.1 _ 26.5 _ 25.5 ___ 7.5 _ 21.6 _ 30.2 ___24.9 __ 7.2 __12.1 ___ 163.5 (8)

Tom ___________________ 9.4 _ 35.9_ 39.1 __ 11.9 _ 12.2 _ 18.0 ___30.2 __18.3 __ 0.5*___ 175.4 (9)

BKViking _______________ 7.1 _ 34.5 _ 44.5 ___ 6.5 __ 9.6 _ 35.2 ___ 27.9 __ 2.2*_11.1 ___ 178.5 (10)

RJay __________________16.1 _ 33.5 _ 43.5 __ 11.5 __ 8.6 _ 13.2 __ 32.9 __14.2 _ 10.9 ___ 184.3 (11)

Scotty Lightning __________8.1 _ 21.5 _ 48.5__ 28.5_ 50.6__ 6.8___ 42.9 __10.2 __4.1 ___ 221.3 (12)

_____________________________________________________________________________

these are now placed in rank order.

* current low departure _ 2 for RodneyS and Roger Smith, one each for Stebo, BKViking, dmillz25, hudsonvalley21 and DonSutherland1.  

ranks at this point are correlated with lower forecasts that are approaching 100% with a lot of time left to accumulate errors.

Third to seventh are probably in the best position, although Stebo (3rd now) can handle more snow at BTV and can trade that against a potential higher error at ORD after 10-15" more could easily fall there. It does not appear as though anyone can gain from further snow at NYC or BOS, or likely DEN as totals are very low at all of those locations. However, DEN can get heavy falls in March and April so with lowest forecast Stebo could perhaps see some losses to his margin if another 25-30 inches were to fall there. 

============================================

Actual forecasts >>>

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

 

Snowfall to date ________  16.9__20.5 __26.5 ___41.5__29.4 _113.2___32.1__20.2 __89.1 

 

RJay __________________33.0 _ 54.0 _ 70.0 __ 30.0 _ 38.0 _100.0___ 65.0 __ 6.0 _100.0

DonSutherland.1 ________ 32.5 _ 50.0 _ 57.5 __ 48.5 _ 53.5 _110.0___ 52.0 __ 3.5 _ 93.0

Tom __________________ 26.3 _ 56.4_ 65.6 __ 29.6 _ 41.6 _ 95.2 ___ 62.3 __ 1.9 _ 89.6

wxallannj ______________ 25.0 _ 47.0 _ 52.0 __ 49.0 _ 51.0 _ 83.0 ___ 57.0 _ 13.0 _ 77.0

Scotty Lightning _________25.0 _ 42.0 _ 75.0__ 70.0_ 80.0_120.0___75.0 _ 10.0 _ 85.0

BKViking _______________24.0 _ 55.0 _ 71.0 __ 35.0 _ 39.0 _ 78.0 ___ 60.0 _ 18.0 _ 78.0

 

___ Consensus _________ 24.0 _ 44.5 _ 60.9 __ 37.5 _ 44.7 _ 92.6 ___ 58.5 __ 6.4 _ 88.8

 

dmillz25 _______________ 24.0 _ 53.0 _ 67.0 __ 40.0 _ 37.7 _ 85.0 ___ 57.0 __ 5.0 _ 90.0

wxdude64 _____________ 22.9 _ 40.6 _ 59.7 __ 38.9 _ 45.9 _ 98.4 ___ 67.6 __ 6.7 _ 90.3

hudsonvalley21 _________ 22.0 _ 40.0 _ 62.0 __ 36.0 _ 48.2 _101.5___ 51.0 __ 5.7 _ 88.0

Roger Smith ____________18.0 _ 28.0 _ 45.0 __ 30.5 _ 35.5 _ 90.0 ___ 60.5 _ 10.0 _ 78.0

Stebo _________________ 13.2 _ 34.3 _ 53.5 __ 33.5 _ 47.0 _ 87.0 ___ 37.0 _ 10.7 _ 97.0

RodneyS _______________12.5 _ 25.0 _ 37.5 __ 41.0 _ 43.5 _ 89.0 ___ 52.5 __ 4.5 _ 73.0

_____________________________________________________________________

High forecasts in bold, low forecasts in italic. 

Consensus is median, average of 6th and 7th ranked forecasts. 

Normal will be added later from NWS daily climate data snowfalls late in season. 

... watch for updates to season totals and this post will migrate to new months as we move along .

[Roger Smith]

Reports on anomalies and forecasts ...

 

___________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

_8th ____ (7th) _____ +5.4 _+5.2 _+6.1 ___ +5.6_+14.1_+12.6 ___ +1.0 _--0.3 _--8.1

15th ___ (14th) _____ +3.4 _+2.6 _+4.6 ___ +1.0_ +8.4_ +5.7 ___ +0.1 _--2.8 _--9.0

22nd ___ (21st) _____ +3.2 _+2.1 _+3.1 ___--0.4_ +6.5_ +4.0 ___ --3.3 _--5.0 _--7.2

 

_8th ___ (p14th) ____ +2.0 _+2.0 _+3.0 ___ +2.3 _ +8.0 _+7.0 ___ --0.2 _--2.0 _--8.0

15th ___ (p21st) ____ +2.5 _+2.0 _+3.5 ___ +0.8 _ +6.0 _+4.5 ___ --1.5 _--4.5 _--7.0

 

_8th ___ (p24th) ____ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _ +5.0 _+4.0 ___ --2.0 _--2.0 _--6.0

15th ___ (p28th) ____ +2.2 _+1.8 _+3.0 ___ +0.2 _ +5.0 _+4.5 ___ --2.5 _--4.0 _--6.0

22nd___ (p28th) ____ +3.2 _+1.8 _+3.0 ___ --0.3 _ +5.0 _+4.5 ___ --2.5 _--4.0 _--6.0

1st ___ (anoms) ____ +3.2 _+0.9 _+1.8 ___ --1.8 _ +6.6 _+3.3 ___ --4.5 _--5.6 _--6.7

_________________________________________________

8th _ DEN average obscures the change from near +20 to -20 anomalies during the interval. The coming week appears close to average in most places, staying very cold in SEA. The interval from 15th to 24th from GFS was estimated to be near normal in east, +3 southeast, staying below normal in west although with some moderation of current extreme cold values. 

15th _ Forecasts were fairly accurate given the large anomalies in play (average error 1.0). The trend for the coming week is fairly similar to established anomalies and the estimate beyond that to 28th maintains a similar trend. Will probably post some provisional scoring soon just for something to look at. SEA has been running record cold and PHX is starting to trend in that direction now as well. 

22nd _ Forecasts for this past week have done quite well, the average error is only 0.65 deg which is good for such large anomalies. The west has been much below normal and will moderate slowly this coming week (after a cold weekend). The east remains in the frontal zone with weak warmings interspersed with unexceptional cold spells. I have boosted DCA and dropped ORD from earlier provisionals, other seven are unchanged. Scores will be adjusted. 

1st March _ Anomalies are now all posted overnight and scoring adjusted. Some places in the west have had their coldest February on record (including where I live) and the coldest winter month since January, 1979. 

 

[Roger Smith]

Final scoring for February 2019

For ATL DEN PHX and SEA, scoring is based on adjusted rank order as no raw scores exceed 60 on current provisionals. However, for ATL one adjusted score was 18, lower than raw score of 20 (for Scotty L) so that one remained at 20 ... scores in orange type are pre-penalty for two forecasters. Highest raw scores for the four locations would be 34 (ATL), 46 (DEN), 30 (PHX) and 57 (SEA). The boost was small for top two scores at SEA and fairly generous after those but rules are rules.

Scores in red or blue are warmest or coldest forecasts (after penalties) and scores in bold, including some of those, are high scores.

 

FORECASTER ______________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL (all nine)

 

___ Stebo _________________70 _ 94 _ 84 __ 248 __ 90 _ 30 _ 68 __ 188 __ 436 __ 60 _ 60 _ 48 __ 168 _ 604

Stebo ____ (-3%) __________ 68 _ 91 _ 81 __ 240 __ 87 _ 29 _ 66 __ 182 __ 422 __ 58_ 58 _ 47 __ 163 ____585

RodneyS __________________64 _ 98 _ 86__ 248 __ 58_ 54 _ 88 __ 200__ 448 __ 30 _ 30 _ 42 __ 102 ____ 550

DonSutherland.1 ____________60 _ 78 _ 58 __ 196 __ 98_ 36 _ 46 __ 180 __ 376 __ 36 _ 48 _ 60 __ 144 ____ 520

 

___ Consensus _____________ 56 _ 96 _ 70 __ 222 __ 84 _ 30 _ 56 __ 170 __ 392 __ 30 _ 30 _ 30 __ 090 ____ 482

 

hudsonvalley21 _____________40 _ 96 _ 66 __ 202 __ 70 _ 42 _ 44 __ 156 __ 358 __ 30 _ 42 _ 36 __ 108 ____ 466

wxdude64 _________________ 50 _ 94 _ 70 __ 212 __ 90 _ 30 _ 56 __ 176 __ 388 __ 54 _ 18 _ 00 __ 072 ____ 462

BKViking __________________ 52 _ 98 _ 84 __ 234 __ 84 _ 12 _ 62 __ 158 __ 392 __ 48 _ 06 _ 12 __ 066 ____ 458

Roger Smith _______________ 94 _ 48 _ 76 __ 218 __ 24 _ 60 _ 86 __ 170 __ 388 __ 00 _ 00 _ 54 __ 054 ____ 442

wxallannj __________________64 _ 94 _ 78 __ 236 __ 44 _ 48 _ 64 __ 156 __ 392 __ 18 _ 24 _ 06 __ 048 ____ 440

Scotty Lightning ____________ 56 _ 92 _ 64 __ 210 __ 64 _ 20 _ 54 __ 138 __ 348 __ 06 _ 12 _ 24 __ 042 ____ 390

___ RJay __________________ 16 _ 62 _ 44 __ 122 __ 84 _ 00 _ 44 __ 128 __ 250 __ 48 _ 54 _ 30 __ 132 _ 382

RJay _____ (-3%) ___________16 _ 60 _ 43 __ 119 __ 81 _ 00 _ 44 __ 124 __ 243 __ 47 _ 52 _ 29 __ 128 ____ 371

___ Normal ________________ 36 _ 82 _ 64 __ 182 __ 64 _ 10 _ 34 __ 108 __ 290 __ 15 _ 39 _ 21 __ 075 ____ 365

Tom ______________________26 _ 72 _ 52 __ 150 __ 86 _ 06 _ 36 __ 128 __ 278 __ 12 _ 36 _ 24 __ 072 ____ 350

_______________________________________________________________________

Extreme forecasts

 

Eight of the nine locations qualify, only NYC was a bit below the finish required. 

 

DCA __ at +3.2, would be a win for Roger Smith (+3.5) ... win for RS at +2.6 or higher, loss and win to Stebo for lower than +2.6.

NYC __ at +0.9 does not qualify as fourth warmest forecast is high score.

BOS __ at +1.8, is a win for RodneyS (+1.1) and a loss for Roger Smith (+3.0). 

ORD __ at --1.8, is a win for DonSutherland.1 at --1.7. 

ATL __ at +6.6, is a win for Roger Smith (+2.5). 

IAH __ at +3.3, is a win for RodneyS (+2.7) and a loss for Roger Smith (+4.0).  

DEN __ at --4.5, would be a win for Stebo (-1.8). 

PHX __ at --5.6, would be a win for Stebo (-1.8). 

SEA __ at --6.7, would be a win for DonSutherland.1 (--3.7). 

[Roger Smith]

<<<<< ===== ----- ----- ----- ----- Annual Contest Scoring Jan-Feb 2019 ----- ----- ----- ----- ===== >>>>>

A new look for the annual table this year, will continue with the all nine format of monthly scoring. Best score tallies will be handled in a separate table. From now to end of 2019, best scores will be tabulated for the eleven regular participants and this will continue with any new or temporary additions getting best scores in addition to those. 

Highest cumulative scores are shown in red in this table (for nine locations) or bold for subtotals. 

 

FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA __west___ all nine TOTAL

 

DonSutherland.1 __________152 _172 _110 __ 434 __ 98 _112 _134 __ 344 __ 778 __ 122 _130 _138__390____1168

Stebo ___________________168 _163 _175__ 506 __ 97 _ 67 _136 __ 300 __ 806 __ 146 _140 _ 57 __ 343 ____1149

hudsonvalley21 ___________134 _184 _136 __ 454 __ 90 _ 98 _136 __ 324 __ 778 __ 128 _140 _ 96 __ 364 ____1142

___ Consensus ___________ 156 _172 _150 __ 478 __ 98 _ 86 _148 __ 332 __ 810 __ 126 _116 _ 78 __ 320 ____1130

wxallannj ________________144 _156 _168 __ 468 __ 44 _144_158 __ 346__ 814 __ 116 _110 _ 72 __ 298 ____1112

wxdude64 _______________146 _170 _150 __ 466 __138 _ 70 _146 __ 354 __820 __ 152_102 _32 __ 286 ____1106

Roger Smith _____________ 194 _120_170 __ 484 __ 28 _102 _170__ 300 __784 ___ 96 _ 82 _130 __ 308 ____ 1092

RodneyS _________________124 _126 _166 __ 416 __ 58 _138 _150 __ 346__ 762 __ 118 _108 _ 90 __ 316 ____1078

BKViking _________________144 _184 _160 __488 __108 _ 56 _136 __ 300 __ 788 __ 144 _ 94 _ 46 __ 284 ____1072

Scotty Lightning ___________150 _170 _138 __ 458 __ 98 _ 98 _130 __ 326 __ 784 ___ 80 _ 94 _ 64 __ 238 ____1022

RJay ____________________100 _118 _139 __ 357 __ 95 _ 78 _129 __ 302 __ 659 __ 141 _150 _ 59 __ 350 ____1009

___ Normal _______________112 _180 _128 __ 420 __108_ 58 _128 __ 294 __ 714 ___ 89 _131 _ 61 __ 281 _____995

Tom _____________________ 72 _152 _ 92 __ 316 __180 _ 06 _132 __ 318 __ 634 ___88 _122 _ 86 __ 296 _____930

 

_______________________________________________________________________

Best scores in each category (nine locations, three regional subtotals, and central-eastern or "original six" subtotal (c/e).

These are best scores in each monthly contest, best total scores are highlighted in the table above in red. Order for best scores will be based on rank in table above.

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___all nine

 

DonSutherland.1 _________0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___2 ___ 1 ____ 0

Stebo __________________1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1

hudsonvalley21 __________0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 1

___Consensus ___________1 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

wxallannj _______________0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

wxdude64 ______________ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

Roger Smith ____________ 2 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

RodneyS _______________ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

BKViking _______________ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

Scotty Lighning __________ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

RJay ___________________0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

___ Normal _____________ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

Tom ___________________0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

 

__________________________________________________________________________________

 

Extreme forecasts  

STANDINGS to date in 2019

 

DonSutherland1 ______ 4-0

Stebo ______________ 2-0

Roger Smith _________ 2-2

RodneyS ____________ 2-2

wxallannj ____________1-0

RJay ________________1-0

Normal ______________1-0

Tom ________________1-1

______________________________________________________________________________

[Roger Smith]

Winter Seasonal Scoring 2018-2019

The "four seasons" contest will change this year to a rank-ordered format that will perhaps stay mostly confined to the eleven regular forecasters we have at the moment unless somebody new joins in and plays all months in any given season. So you'll see one table of total scores and one of ranks. The overall low score on ranks like in golf will win the event.

 

FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA __west___ all nine TOTAL

 

wxallannj ________________204 _212 _224__ 640 __104 _202_248 __554_ 1194__194 _184 _112 __ 490___1684

 

DonSutherland.1 __________197 _208 _138 __ 543 __138 _166 _234 __ 528 _ 1081 __178 _226 _194__ 598 ___1679

hudsonvalley21 ___________184 _238 _180 __ 602 __110 _146 _220 __ 476__1078 __190 _210 _158 __ 558 ___1636

Scotty Lightning ___________210 _248_206 __664 __143 _162 _224 __ 529__1193 __120 _180 _ 98 __ 398 ___1591

RodneyS _________________164 _174 _202 __ 540 __108 _162 _230 __ 500__1040 __182 _194 _130 __ 506 ___1546

Roger Smith _____________ 219 _142 _198 __ 559 __ 63 _110 _242 __ 415 __ 974 __196 _148 _220 __ 564 ___1538

 

___ Consensus ___________ 186 _204 _182 __ 572 __133 _ 94 _220 __ 447 _ 1019 __ 182 _202 _132 __ 516 ____1535

___ Normal _______________152 _228 _176 __ 556__151_ 92 _204 __ 447 _ 1003 __ 149 _225 _ 95 __ 459 ____1462

 

BKViking _________________179 _220 _192 __ 591 __124 _ 56 _208 __ 388 __ 979 __ 190 _182 _ 96 __ 458 ____1447

Stebo ___________________180 _181 _181 __ 542 __152 _ 67 _188 __ 407 __ 949 __ 176 _204 _115 __ 495 ____1444

RJay ____________________124 _145 _166 __ 435 __119 _ 92 _183 __ 394 __ 829 __209_233 _111 __ 553 ____1382

wxdude64 _______________150 _170 _150 __ 470 __142 _ 76 _ 214 __ 432 __ 902 __ 160 _186 _104 __ 450 ____1352

Tom ___________________ 102 _184 _122 __ 408 __ 192 _ 10 _204 __ 406 __ 814 __126 _218 _138 __ 480 ____1294

___ (1 mo only) ___ >>>

IntenseBlizzard2014 ________ 16 _ 30 _ 34 __ 080 ___ 35 _ 04 _ 66 __ 105 __ 185 ___ 42 _ 92 _ 46 __ 180 _____ 365

dmillz25 __________________08 _ 00 _ 00 __ 008 ___ 08 _ 00 _ 52 __ 060 __ 068 ___ 70 _ 74 _ 64 __ 208 _____ 276

_____________________________________________________________________________________

 

Ranking Points

east, central not counted in total as c/e is counted. ... Consensus and Normal ranks do not affect forecaster ranks.

* indicates tied rankings

 

FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west__all nine__TOTAL

 

DonSutherland.1 __________ 4 __ 5 __ 10 __ ( 6) ___5 __ 2 __ 3 __ ( 3) __ 3 ___ 7 __ 2 __ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 ______ 46

wxallannj ________________ 3 __ 4 __ 1 __ ( 2) ___10 __1 __1 __ ( 1) __ 1 ___ 3 __ 8 __ 7 ___ 7 ____ 1  ______47

hudsonvalley21 ___________ 5 __ 2 __ 7 __ ( 4) ___ 8 __ 5 __ 6 __ ( 5) __ 4 ___ 4* __4 __ 3 ___ 3 ____ 3 ______ 54

Roger Smith ______________1 __ 11 __ 4 __( 5) ___11 _ 6 __ 2 __ ( 7)  __ 7 ___ 2 __11__ 1 ___ 2 ____ 6 ______ 64

Scotty Lightning ___________ 2 __ 1 __ 2 __ ( 3) ___ 3 __ 3*__ 5 __ ( 2) __ 2 __11 __10 __10 __11 ____ 4 ______ 64

RodneyS _________________ 8 __ 8 __ 3 __ ( 8) ___ 9 __ 3*__ 4 __ ( 4) __ 5 ___ 6 __ 6 __ 5 ___ 5 ____ 5 ______ 67

___ Consensus ___________  5 __ 6 __ 6  __ ( 5) ___ 6 __ 7 __ 6*__ ( 6) __ 6  ___ 6*__ 6 __ 5  ___5 ___ 7 ______ 71

Stebo ___________________ 6  __ 7 __ 6 __ ( 7) ___ 2 __ 9 __10 __ ( 8) __ 8 ___ 8 __ 5 ___ 6 ___ 6 ____ 8 ______ 81

BKViking _________________ 7 __ 3  __ 5 __ ( 5) ___ 6 __10 __ 8 __ (11) __ 6 ___ 4*__ 9 __11___ 9 ____ 7 ______ 85

RJay ____________________10 __10 __ 8 __(10) ___ 7 __ 7 __11 __ (10)__10 ___ 1 __ 1 ___ 8 ___4 ____ 9 ______ 86

___ Normal _______________9 __  3 __ 8 __ ( 6) ___ 3 __ 7*__ 9*__ ( 6) __ 6 ___10 __ 3 __12 ___ 9 ____ 7 ______ 86

Tom ____________________11 __ 6 __11 __(11) ___ 1 __11 __ 9 __ ( 9) __11 ___10 __ 3 __ 4 ___ 8 _____11______96

wxdude64 ________________ 9 __ 9 __ 9 __ ( 9) ___ 4 __ 8 __ 7 ___( 6) __ 9  ___ 9 __ 7 ___ 9  __10 ____10______100