TriPol Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Enough with the biting cold wind already.... it's not January anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 15 minutes ago, TriPol said: Enough with the biting cold wind already.... it's not January anymore. It's February and still winter and early March will be cold too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Weak El Niño conditions have redeveloped. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.20°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.70°C for the week centered around February 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. Basin-wide, neutral-warm/very weak El Niño conditions are not conducive for large snowstorms in northern Mid-Atlantic cities including New York and Philadelphia during February. Conditions can be somewhat more favorable during the first half of March. Such ENSO conditions will likely persist into at least the first half of March with some possible fluctuations to levels consistent with weak El Niño events. The warm SSTAs will likely remain basin-wide. The SOI was -9.99 today. The 30-day SOI average is -12.50. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.620. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is +0.074. Should the AO average -2.129 for the remainder of February, it would finish with a meteorological winter average +0.001. Therefore, given the latest ensemble forecast, the AO will very likely finish with a positive average for winter 2018-19. Further, consistent with cases where the AO peaked at +3.000 or above during the February 20-28 period, the odds of a return to negative AO values is low. Almost half of such cases actually had no AO- readings through March 15. On February 24, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.125 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat lower than the February 23-adjusted figure of 2.172. The SOI remains at negative levels. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. As a result, precipitation will likely be above to much above normal in both the Southwestern United States (including California) and Southeastern United States. Based on historic data following similar ENSO conditions to those of February 2019, March 1-15 could provide perhaps the final window of opportunity for a moderate or significant snowstorm in the New York City area. That the MJO will likely enter March at a high amplitude is consistent with a colder start to the month. Due to shorter wave lengths, the state of the AO has little impact on the probability of such storms. Afterward, pronounced warming could limit opportunities for snowfall. The odds of such warming would be particularly high should the PDO be negative, as has been the case in both December and January. The 12z ECMWF was most aggressive with the idea of a Middle Atlantic and New England snowstorm during the first week in March. Both the latest CFSv2 and EPS weekly forecasts favor a warm-up near mid-month. Cold could linger in the Central and Northern Plains through much of March. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Last three days of Feb. averaging 30degs., or 6degs. BN. Month to date is +2.1[37.0]. Should end Feb. at +1.0[36.2]. All 8 days averaging 33degs., or 4degs. BN. EURO is 8" for the next 10 days. The GEFS is 5" on the next 10 days. Concerning the mid-month warming in two weeks mentioned in previous entry, the RRWT is BN till 3/15, then Normal for a week and BN again 3/23---04/01. Then it is AN. The next 30 days are BN for the northeast and most of western Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 That jives with accuweathers spring forecast from a few weeks ago, ironically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 This has to be the most La Niña-like winter the US has ever experienced during an El Niño. The 2010’s continue to come up with new extremes and combinations we haven’t seen before. Makes seasonal forecasting that much more difficult. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Might want to take note of next week. Possibly two systems affecting the Mid-Atlantic thru parts of New England. Showing up on GFS, GEM, and Euro. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 The two primary issues that delayed the FV3's implementation: -The snow depth and the water equivalent of snow depth at the surface have unrealistically large values when precipitation occurs in environments with low-level temperature profiles close to freezing. Techniques that use either of these variables for deriving snowfall will exhibit excessive snowfall values. -The model forecasts exhibit a cold bias in the lower atmosphere that became more prominent after late September 2018. https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn19-12gfsv15.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: The two primary issues that delayed the FV3's implementation: <i>-The snow depth and the water equivalent of snow depth at the surface have unrealistically large values when precipitation occurs in environments with low-level temperature profiles close to freezing. Techniques that use either of these variables for deriving snowfall will exhibit excessive snowfall values. -The model forecasts exhibit a cold bias in the lower atmosphere that became more prominent after late September 2018.</i> https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn19-12gfsv15.pdf That’s a good move. If all the FV3 virtual snow verified, then we might have had more snow than 95-96. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Cmc shows a nice snowstorm for Monday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Ukie also shows a coastal storm in Monday. Para gfs is also nice for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 26, 2019 Author Share Posted February 26, 2019 Should move this snow talk to the March thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 32 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Ukie also shows a coastal storm in Monday. Para gfs is also nice for the coast UKMET is coastal rain storm for you and me... you get a lil snow before the 850 line moves north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 26 minutes ago, yoda said: UKMET is coastal rain storm for you and me... you get a lil snow before the 850 line moves north 850 line is way too detailed. ‘Storm in vicinity with some snow potential’ is really all we can say this far out which is what snow88 was saying I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 52 minutes ago, yoda said: UKMET is coastal rain storm for you and me... you get a lil snow before the 850 line moves north The UKMET is also total weak sauce, 1002mb low. Unimpressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Only using the TT graphic, but hr 144 on the Euro looks really good.. 995 in a great spot southeast of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Snow for March 4th, Monday on euro and CMC. Can we pin the March thread to discuss please? Thank you 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Just now, David-LI said: Snow for March 4th, Monday on euro and CMC. Can we pin the March thread to discuss please? Thank you Euro shows several inches for the area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Euro shows several inches for the area 4-6" Wilmington-New Brunswick and 6-8" New Brunswick through NYC and beyond (and a bit more NE of NYC in New England) on the Euro, as modeled. Between that and 6-10" on the CMC and 3-5" on the GFS-FV3, we have a legitimate snowstorm threat for Sunday night into Monday. Sure it's still 5+ days out, but it's better than tracking warm rain. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 2 hours ago, David-LI said: Snow for March 4th, Monday on euro and CMC. Can we pin the March thread to discuss please? Thank you And maybe unpin the storm images thread. I mean it hasn't been posted to since November 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Upton's snowmap for Wednesday nite 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Snow In Feb isn't done yet. WWA just issued in Dutchess county for 3-5 inches Wednesday night. I'm only expected 2-3 but any snow is good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 This may be our first DJF when the most exciting snow event was a snow squall whiteout. https://mobile.twitter.com/nysmesonet/status/1091018427320467456 From the countryside to the city, our cameras picked up incredible whiteout conditions as a #snowsquall moved through New York yesterday afternoon, ending with a beautiful sunset. # 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 They brined the roads here so it's definitely gonna snow tomorrow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.20°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.70°C for the week centered around February 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. Basin-wide, neutral-warm/very weak El Niño conditions are not conducive for large snowstorms in northern Mid-Atlantic cities including New York and Philadelphia during February. Conditions can be somewhat more favorable during the first half of March, but based on historic data, the recent warming of ENSO Region 3.4 may not be a positive development for the first half of March. Similar ENSO conditions will likely persist through at least the first half of March with some possible fluctuations to just below weak El Niño levels. Some guidance suggests the potential for further warming of ENSO Region 3.4. The SOI was -15.32 today. The 30-day SOI average is -12.90. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.997. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is +0.096. Should the AO average -4.192 for the remainder of February, it would finish with a meteorological winter average +0.001. Therefore, given the latest ensemble forecast, the AO is virtually certain to finish with a positive average for winter 2018-19. Further, consistent with cases where the AO peaked at +3.000 or above during the February 20-28 period, the odds of a return to negative AO values is low. Almost half of such cases actually had no AO- readings through March 15. On February 25, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.157 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat higher than the February 24-adjusted figure of 2.126. Over the next 1-3 days, the MJO will likely move into Phase 2. Afterward, it could move into Phase 3 near the start of the second week of March. The SOI remains at negative levels. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. As a result, precipitation will likely be above to much above normal in both the Southwestern United States (including California) and Southeastern United States. Based on historic data following similar ENSO conditions to those of February 2019, March 1-15 could provide perhaps the final window of opportunity for a moderate or significant snowstorm in the New York City area. That the MJO will likely enter March at a high amplitude is consistent with a colder start to the month. Due to shorter wave lengths, the state of the AO has little impact on the probability of such storms. Afterward, pronounced warming could limit opportunities for snowfall. The odds of such warming would be particularly high should the PDO be negative, as has been the case in both December and January. During the March 1-15 period, the frequency of a widespread moderate or significant snowstorm (a storm that brings 4" or more snow to two or more of the following cities--Boston, New York City, and/or Philadelphia) has been limited when the March ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has been at or above the El Niño threshold. Since 1950, 18/21 (86%) of such snowstorms occurred when the ENSO region 3.4 anomaly was below +0.50°C. The biggest snowstorms when the March Region 3.4 anomaly was at or above +0.50°C were as follows: Boston: 5.8"; New York City: 7.5"; and, Philadelphia: 7.5". In terms of 6" or greater snowstorms during March 1-15, 1950-2018, 0/19 (0%) in Boston, 1/7 (14%) in New York City, and 1/13 (8%) in Philadelphia have occurred when the March ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.50°C or above. However, March 1958 saw a major snowstorm during the second half of the month during El Niño conditions, so some probability of such a storm would exist even if current ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies persist. March could finish with an ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly above +0.50°C if some of the recent ENSO forecasts are reasonably accurate and earlier today the World Meteorological Organization indicated that there is a 50%-60% chance that a weak El Niño could develop by May. https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-update-50-60-chance-of-el-ni%C3%B1o-within-next-3-months Therefore, one should wait for good run-to-run continuity and strong model consensus before embracing high-impact snow scenarios for the Philadelphia-Boston region that may appear from time to time on the guidance. Put another way, even as a moderate or significant snowfall remains possible, confidence in such an outcome could be fairly low until the possible event is 48-96 hours away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 lol so the NYC area is just too far south for this one? man we cant catch a break! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 18z eps looks good for the coastal at 138 hours. More phased than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 18z eps looks good for the coastal at 138 hours. More phased than 12z. Which day? Getting confused by all the potential events, none of which I actually expect to come to fruition, but it's nice to talk about.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 41 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: lol so the NYC area is just too far south for this one? man we cant catch a break! Meanwhile my niece just moved back from Minnesota she said you can have all the snow and cold you want there but she's had it. Came back here where the winters are " more reasonable." 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 A couple inches for the area Friday morning on the 0z NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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