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February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread


Stormlover74

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4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Some snow from the clipper midweek and then a little more snow on Friday on the cmc and gfs.

Active pattern

Yes I actually think the Friday storm may be the one with a bit more potential for our area, don't expect much but seems the city might dink and dunk it's way to double digit snowfall on the season 

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1 minute ago, romba said:

CMC 222 hours is beautiful to look at. Clickbait model lol

I do think that storm does have some potential to be the final whammy of the winter but the way this winter has gone it also good likely miss to the south when all the cold air is place

 

CMC also still looks good for our area on Friday

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44 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Some snow from the clipper midweek and then a little more snow on Friday on the cmc and gfs.

Active pattern

CMC gives a pretty good hit of snow, 3 to 4 inches, for NYC-south thursday night into friday morning. It has been showing this consistently. I'm starting to wonder if this threat could be legit.

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42 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yes I actually think the Friday storm may be the one with a bit more potential for our area, don't expect much but seems the city might dink and dunk it's way to double digit snowfall on the season 

Actually NYC is currently at 10.0 inches for the season. The last slop storm got them to double digits.

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5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I don’t really like the Wednesday event or Friday.  Wednesday probably goes north and Friday also likely will be north of it happens.  It’s possible snow could reach the coast on both but it won’t be much.  If something big is going to happen it’ll be between 3/4 and 3/9

This would not surprise me at all - BUT right now its less then a 50/50 chance IMO of verifying -0Z  Euro is also showing a coastal 3/6

gem_asnow_neus_40.png

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49 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I don’t really like the Wednesday event or Friday.  Wednesday probably goes north and Friday also likely will be north of it happens.  It’s possible snow could reach the coast on both but it won’t be much.  If something big is going to happen it’ll be between 3/4 and 3/9

Friday is way south on the euro and ukie

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2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

We said the same about last March.  This looks to be the best pattern we had all winter. Hopefully we cash in.

For the city itself only like 1 of the March storms really ended up being a big one. The others had all sorts of issues in the immediate city. It's hard to get 12+ in the city in March but not impossible      

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44 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

18z nam is colder and further south compared to 12z for the midweek clipper. Looks like a 1-2 inch deal with more in SNE.

The Euro showed a decent shot from about NYC along the CT coast from 66-72 but that’s the model seeing late ocean enhancement which while it does occur usually occurs less and later than the models envision at this range.  

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This big -PNA really delivered on the cold up in Calgary for February.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-cold-spring-forecast-record-wind-chill-temperatures-calgary-1.5032649

If it seems like it's been an unusually cold month in Calgary, that's because it has.

According to Environment Canada data, February 2019, so far, has been even colder than the brutal month the city experienced back in 1979. During that February 40 years ago, the average temperature in the city, measured hourly, was –16.7 C.

So far this month, it's been –18.5 C.

Hourly records only go back to 1953, but there is daily data as far back as 1882.

And by that measure, this February would be the third-coldest on record, if average temperatures continue at this level.

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