the_other_guy Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Why do we keep removing November?? It was a major storm and it happened at the beginning of the season. It usually leads to a below normal snowfall winter. It happened before and it will happen again. I just don’t understand the alternate reality where we’re getting rid of the 6 inch snowfall in November because it was in November. It is integral to the whole season and, from a historical perspective, the season has played out exactly as expected after that event. I said this the day after that storm, And then every month since. If there is any other historical ending that could happen with the early-season snowfall, it’s usually a big march snowfall. People seem shocked...not sure why. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 20, 2019 Author Share Posted February 20, 2019 12 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Why do we keep removing November?? It was a major storm and it happened at the beginning of the season. It usually leads to a below normal snowfall winter. It happened before and it will happen again. I just don’t understand the alternate reality where we’re getting rid of the 6 inch snowfall in November because it was in November. It is integral to the whole season and, from a historical perspective, the season has played out exactly as expected after that event. I said this the day after that storm, And then every month since. If there is any other historical ending that could happen with the early-season snowfall, it’s usually a big march snowfall. People seem shocked...not sure why. I think it's just to highlight how awful its been around here since then. It of course still counts to our seasonal snowfall all said and done but if we end up with less snow in Dec-March than November it'll be pretty impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 44 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I think it's just to highlight how awful its been around here since then. It of course still counts to our seasonal snowfall all said and done but if we end up with less snow in Dec-March than November it'll be pretty impressive Revising history to align with your view of the present is never a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just started seeing some flurries here in central. Suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 2 hours ago, jfklganyc said: Why do we keep removing November?? It was a major storm and it happened at the beginning of the season. It usually leads to a below normal snowfall winter. It happened before and it will happen again. I just don’t understand the alternate reality where we’re getting rid of the 6 inch snowfall in November because it was in November. It is integral to the whole season and, from a historical perspective, the season has played out exactly as expected after that event. I said this the day after that storm, And then every month since. If there is any other historical ending that could happen with the early-season snowfall, it’s usually a big march snowfall. People seem shocked...not sure why. I still think the significant early snowfall = terrible winter thing is more about a lack of data points than an actual link between the two, but I will say that I won't be upset if we go snowless this October/November lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 2 hours ago, jfklganyc said: Why do we keep removing November?? It was a major storm and it happened at the beginning of the season. It usually leads to a below normal snowfall winter. It happened before and it will happen again. I just don’t understand the alternate reality where we’re getting rid of the 6 inch snowfall in November because it was in November. It is integral to the whole season and, from a historical perspective, the season has played out exactly as expected after that event. I said this the day after that storm, And then every month since. If there is any other historical ending that could happen with the early-season snowfall, it’s usually a big march snowfall. People seem shocked...not sure why. Yeah I don't quite get it either. Now everyone wants to talk about Met Winter snowfall. I had 50 inches of snow after March 1 last year and 34 inches before so I guess with the new reasoning my Winter last year sucked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 8 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Yeah I don't quite get it either. Now everyone wants to talk about Met Winter snowfall. I had 50 inches of snow after March 1 last year and 34 inches before so I guess with the new reasoning my Winter last year sucked. Last year central park got 11 inches I believe between March 2nd and April 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Highlighting the lack of snowfall during met winter doesn’t take away from the fact that snow fell in November (met fall), nor the fact that it can snow in March (met spring). Even including November’s little storm this season is still far below normal for most of us. My seasonal total stands at 6.1”, with 70% of that coming from the November event (4.3”). 1.8” for DJF so far, not including today’s event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 11 minutes ago, Cfa said: Highlighting the lack of snowfall during met winter doesn’t take away from the fact that snow fell in November (met fall), nor the fact that it can snow in March (met spring). Even including November’s little storm this season is still far below normal for most of us. My seasonal total stands at 6.1”, with 70% of that coming from the November event (4.3”). 1.8” for DJF so far, not including today’s event. I dont think ppl should just throw out the Nov snowfall, but I do understand why its worth pointing out. We have only 8 or 9" for the season, but it doesnt even "feel" like that much snow. It feels virtually snowless when 6"+ of that fell in what some would consider a fluke event 3 months ago. It's statistically valid like any other snowfall but statistics cant tell the whole story. The commentary is what brings the story behind the numbers to life. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 we have seen our share of out of season storms since 2011...two being Oct. 2011 and Nov. 2012...another last April...the 1980's had three too...Nov. 1987 and 1989 and April 1982... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 A continuation of the big temperature swings theme this winter. Warm ups coming for Thursday and the weekend. Followed by a late season -EPO cool down to start March. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 30 minutes ago, bluewave said: A continuation of the big temperature swings theme this winter. Warm ups coming for Thursday and the weekend. Followed by a late season -EPO cool down to start March. Eps has a big signal for the 1st week. PNA looks great 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Yeah I don't quite get it either. Now everyone wants to talk about Met Winter snowfall. I had 50 inches of snow after March 1 last year and 34 inches before so I guess with the new reasoning my Winter last year sucked. IMO, It's shifting the goal posts to further exacerbate how little snow some areas have had. However, the November storm counts, plain and simple. Our seasonal totals include anything that falls, even if it is outside of Met Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 We have over 100 years worth of data points. When you get an early November snow, the season usually sucks. It doesn’t happen that often and that’s obviously a good thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 20 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: IMO, It's shifting the goal posts to further exacerbate how little snow some areas have had. However, the November storm counts, plain and simple. Our seasonal totals include anything that falls, even if it is outside of Met Winter. By the way A pathetic 1.3 today 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 27 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: We have over 100 years worth of data points. When you get an early November snow, the season usually sucks. It doesn’t happen that often and that’s obviously a good thing! People argued that the sample is too small, but you can't help but notice the connection. I said it right away, that it might be the biggest of the season; I was only half joking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 50 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Eps has a big signal for the 1st week. PNA looks great Well I hope it delivers something for us Anthony. We are at least getting some small events. Maybe we get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Not to take away from any wintry weather we are currently getting but the storm this weekend could pack a punch. The NWS is highlighting the chance of heavy rain Saturday night/Sunday with strong to possibly damaging winds (damaging per Mt.Holly) Sunday but especially on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 1 hour ago, rgwp96 said: By the way A pathetic 1.3 today Yeah just measured 1.5" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 2 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Not to take away from any wintry weather we are currently getting but the storm this weekend could pack a punch. The NWS is highlighting the chance of heavy rain Saturday night/Sunday with strong to possibly damaging winds (damaging per Mt.Holly) Sunday but especially on Monday. More rain. Lovely. Have we had more rain than Portland or Seattle this year? My guess is yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 NYCs annual average rainfall (around 44”) is higher than Seattle (around 37”) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Basin-wide neutral-warm ENSO conditions persist. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.60°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.60°C for the week centered around February 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. Basin-wide, neutral-warm/very weak El Niño conditions are not conducive for large snowstorms in northern Mid-Atlantic cities including New York and Philadelphia during February. Today's storm proved consistent with historic experience. Such ENSO conditions will likely persist through February with some possible fluctuations to levels consistent with weak El Niño events. Under such a scenario, the probability of a significant snowfall (6" or more) will be well below climatology for the northern Mid-Atlantic region. The SOI was -38.91 today. That is the 10th consecutive day during which the SOI was -10.00 or below. The last time the SOI was at or below -10.00 for at least 10 consecutive days was April 12-23, 2016. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.112. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.035. Should the AO average +0.371 for the remainder of February, it would finish with a meteorological winter average +0.001. On February 19, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.839 (RMM). The amplitude rose from the February 18-adjusted figure of 1.550. The MJO could spend an extended duration in Phase 8 before moving slowly into Phase 1 during the closing week of February. The SOI remains at very negative levels. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. As a result, precipitation will likely be above to much above normal in both the Southwestern United States (including California) and Southeastern United States. Another storm could bring moderate to potentially heavy rainfall to parts of the East this weekend. Afterward, the pattern could evolve toward a colder one. Unlike with February when neutral-warm to very weak El Niño conditions are not conducive to significant snows in the Middle Atlantic region, the frequency of such snowfalls during such ENSO conditions increases in March courtesy of shortening wave lengths. Based on historic data following similar ENSO conditions to those of February 2019, March 1-15 could provide perhaps the final window of opportunity for a moderate or significant snowstorm in the New York City area. Afterward, pronounced warming could limit opportunities for snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 30 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: NYCs annual average rainfall (around 44”) is higher than Seattle (around 37”) its over 50 inches since 1971... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 39 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: NYCs annual average rainfall (around 44”) is higher than Seattle (around 37”) Perhaps the better question is how many rainy days do they have, as they get lots of drizzle and we get more downpours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 10 minutes ago, uncle W said: its over 50 inches since 1971... Wow I didn't realize it was so wet here. No wonder mold grows everywhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Perhaps the better question is how many rainy days do they have, as they get lots of drizzle and we get more downpours. Approx 150 days in Seattle and 120 in NYC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 26 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Approx 150 days in Seattle and 120 in NYC Thanks. 30 more days, that is significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Some estimated freezing rain totals as of 10:40 pm based on the hourly observations: Bridgeport: 0.16" New York City: 0.11" White Plains: 0.18" Light freezing rain is continuing to fall at all three locations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 6 hours ago, Snow88 said: Eps has a big signal for the 1st week. PNA looks great The EPS has had a “great signal” in the long range since November, same with the weeklies. Going on 5 months of “great signals”. We should have about 300 inches of snow by now according to the EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 0z GFS doesn't want to end winter just yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now