February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

[LibertyBell]

On 2/13/2019 at 2:05 PM, weatherlogix said:

In the NYC area PDI wasn't as impactful as it was in the Mid-Atlantic

April 1982 slipped my mind but a storm like that in January wouldn't have been that huge a deal...what did Central Park record 9.6"?

Yes there was an odd thing about that storm- the airports had 8", NYC had 9.6" and Newark, NJ had 13"  Did banding cause that difference or was Newark colder?  Newark also made it into the teens during the storm- unheard of for April!

[LibertyBell]

On 2/13/2019 at 1:27 PM, NorthShoreWx said:

Actually, the snow hung on longer on the east end of the island.  The ocean warmed the boundary more near the coast, but has little or nothing to do with the "mid levels" on a southwest flow around here.

Thats interesting- even though a SW wind has a longer trajectory over the water for the east end then it does back this way!

You see that in the summer when the east end is much cooler on a SW wind while back here it can still hit 90 on a SW wind.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 2/13/2019 at 2:13 PM, weatherlogix said:

And I meant Jan 1987...I think it was January 25.....I was in 8th grade. NYC was forecasted to get a quick 2-4" and switch over to sleet/rain, like so many 1980's storms had done before it....but it kept snowing and ended as freezing drizzle. That storm was in at 9AM and out by 430PM or so. The next week there was a storm that mostly stayed to the south - NYC was forecasted to get a lot more than what actually occurred. One last storm later in February, also hitting the mid-Atlantic harder than this area....and I thought that winter was the greatest thing since sliced bread....had no idea a 1995-1996 was even possible.

There was something like 50-60 inches of snow in Monmouth County that winter, while our area didn't even hit 30" in any winter in that decade.  Not even in the season that we got the Feb 1983 blockbuster.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You can see the EPS flattening out the SE Ridge near the end of the month with this big SOI drop. The main question is how long will this last. That SE Ridge has been tenacious this year. So I would like to get closer to the end of the month before believing the EPS.

It almost feels like the persistent SE Ridge from the summer never really went away.

[bluewave]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

It almost feels like the persistent SE Ridge from the summer never really went away.

Yeah, it was a record breaking WAR/SE Ridge in 2018. The background warming and extremes of this climate combined with the La Niña. So we can see how a piece of that pattern can stay stuck in place. Fits with the 2010’s stuck and stagnant pattern themes.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, bluewave said:

Yeah, it was a record breaking WAR/SE Ridge in 2018. The background warming and extremes of this climate combined with the La Niña. So we can see how a piece of that pattern can stay stuck in place. Fits with the 2010’s stuck and stagnant pattern themes.

Speaking about stuck patterns, this is one thing we didn't see in the 80s- a storm track on repeat.  It feels like this entire month it's been almost the same exact storm track.

[weatherpruf]

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Best place to live if you want snow is lake effect regions, where you'll get snow no matter what the pattern is, because sooner or later you'll get a north to northwest wind as a front passes through.

The other region are the mountains in the west, Lake Tahoe up to Mt Rainier.  I dont think that region ever gets less than 100 inches of snow.

 

LOL too much for me. And I've never experienced lake effect snows, but they appear to be a different animal, with effects being very localized and the snow being a somewhat compacted type ( I'm remembering the famous 70's blizzard in Buffalo I think, where they said the snow was very difficult to remove ). There's plenty of snow not far north of here, most years even parts of Sussex Co gets decent snows.

[LibertyBell]

On 2/13/2019 at 6:24 PM, Jason215 said:

I was in school the same years 1979 -1990. NYC public schools never closed even one time. Bliss of 1983 started about 2:30PM on Friday..school let out at normal time. By the time Monday rolled around, everything was cleaned up enough to open schools.  Every KU storm we get nowadays is like payback for the 80’s. 

At least we had a week of midwinter recess the following week out here on Long Island lol.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

LOL too much for me. And I've never experienced lake effect snows, but they appear to be a different animal, with effects being very localized and the snow being a somewhat compacted type ( I'm remembering the famous 70's blizzard in Buffalo I think, where they said the snow was very difficult to remove ). There's plenty of snow not far north of here, most years even parts of Sussex Co gets decent snows.

Yes, one thing that we have been able to discover is what our ceiling and floor for snowfall is based on the varying amount of snows we've gotten through the years.  I've discovered that I dont like it when we get less than 30" of snow and more than 80" of snow is too much for my liking (based on my experiences in the Poconos.)  So 50"-60" of snow is about ideal for me.

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Speaking about stuck patterns, this is one thing we didn't see in the 80s- a storm track on repeat.  It feels like this entire month it's been almost the same exact storm track.

That’s true. We have seen this same cutter, hugger, or suppressed storm track since the fall. We really got lucky with the November hugger snowstorm. It ran right into an unusually cold Arctic high for that time of year. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

That’s true. We have seen this same cutter, hugger, or suppressed storm track since the fall. We really got lucky with the November hugger snowstorm. It ran right into an unusually cold Arctic high for that time of year. 

Yes and even that changed over but only after a heavy dump of snow.  Imagine if the forecasters were right and we only got the 1-2" that was predicted!

Ironically no Arctic high has hung on as long as that first one did!

 

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

That’s true. We have seen this same cutter, hugger, or suppressed storm track since the fall. We really got lucky with the November hugger snowstorm. It ran right into an unusually cold Arctic high for that time of year. 

And I never believed it would happen, even though I've seen a few in my lifetime like this. My next thought was, uh oh, the ones I've seen have been followed by low snow winters ( 2013 we got bailed out by 6-8 inches here in the Feb blizzard, another one that was too far east for us IMBY)

[weatherpruf]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

At least we had a week of midwinter recess the following week out here on Long Island lol.

Schools, and my district is among the, seem to have dumped too many winter holidays in recent years, and I know in our case that is directly the result of bad weather ( Floyd, Sandy, snow, heavy flooding rains, various sleet and ice events, even a derecho in 98 here, which caused enough damage to close schools the first week IIRC ). But I remember in the 80's when I was training to be a teacher that some of my colleagues were in districts that had a week off in Feb.

[EasternLI]

20 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

LOL too much for me. And I've never experienced lake effect snows, but they appear to be a different animal, with effects being very localized and the snow being a somewhat compacted type ( I'm remembering the famous 70's blizzard in Buffalo I think, where they said the snow was very difficult to remove ). There's plenty of snow not far north of here, most years even parts of Sussex Co gets decent snows.

 

https://buffalonews.com/2017/01/22/blizzard-77-still-measuring-rod-massive-snowstorms/

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Schools, and my district is among the, seem to have dumped too many winter holidays in recent years, and I know in our case that is directly the result of bad weather ( Floyd, Sandy, snow, heavy flooding rains, various sleet and ice events, even a derecho in 98 here, which caused enough damage to close schools the first week IIRC ). But I remember in the 80's when I was training to be a teacher that some of my colleagues were in districts that had a week off in Feb.

I remember that Labor Day 1998 event well- we had an F2 tornado within a mile or two of here that destroyed storefronts down Merrick Avenue in Lynbrook!

 

[MJO812]

41 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

And it won't make any difference. Too little, too late.

March is too late ? 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The shorter term models caught onto the heavy snow potential right before the storm started. Models correct stronger closer in with our more memorable snowstorms. And they indicate longer range virtual snow that gets less and less the closer we get in more unfavorable patterns like this winter so far.

This does remind me of 2007-08 in that way- except that season we had our surprise snowfall at the end of the season in Late February not the beginning of the season.

We had that big Heavy Snow Warning bust in January that the short range models caught onto also.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

March is too late ? 

Well if we are talking about something like March 1998 style, then yes.  If it's like last year then no.

But to be honest, last winter would have been mediocre without the January blizzard.

There is literally nothing like a big snowstorm during the coldest part of winter.

 

[Ericjcrash]

24 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

March is too late ? 

Pretty much. While sure you can get a good snowstorm you could just as easily have white rain. Last March had both on display. Even when you get a good one, it's gone pretty quickly.

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Pretty much. While sure you can get a good snowstorm you could just as easily have white rain. Last March had both on display. Even when you get a good one, it's gone pretty quickly.

The gone pretty quickly snow cover has been a big theme after the 14-15 winter. I don’t really mind it as long as it’s a great snowstorm. 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Pretty much. While sure you can get a good snowstorm you could just as easily have white rain. Last March had both on display. Even when you get a good one, it's gone pretty quickly.

That April snowstorm was the one that I liked the most.

 

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Well if we are talking about something like March 1998 style, then yes.  If it's like last year then no.

But to be honest, last winter would have been mediocre without the January blizzard.

There is literally nothing like a big snowstorm during the coldest part of winter.

 

I only got a couple of inches in the January storm. Went into March with something like 23 or 24 inches but finished with nearly 70. Good early season snow, extreme cold for an extended period of time, a freak rager in the middle of golf weather in February and then a stellar, power destroying, forest mangling March. Last winter was far from mediocre.

[psv88]

6 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I only got a couple of inches in the January storm. Went into March with something like 23 or 24 inches but finished with nearly 70. Good early season snow, extreme cold for an extended period of time, a freak rager in the middle of golf weather in February and then a stellar, power destroying, forest mangling March. Last winter was far from mediocre.

72 inches here last winter, was bullseye for nearly every blizzard. And March was insane. 

[weatherpruf]

27 minutes ago, psv88 said:

72 inches here last winter, was bullseye for nearly every blizzard. And March was insane. 

Haven't been in the bullseye since Jan 2016. One day....

[nzucker]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The gone pretty quickly snow cover has been a big theme after the 14-15 winter. I don’t really mind it as long as it’s a great snowstorm. 

Well that's another feature of the changing climate that will be growing more severe in coming decades. Bigger storms but less snowpack. The record Feb 2006 and Jan 2016 storms were both gone in under a week...

[sussexcountyobs]

12 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Well that's another feature of the changing climate that will be growing more severe in coming decades. Bigger storms but less snowpack. The record Feb 2006 and Jan 2016 storms were both gone in under a week...

Has that never happened before?

[nzucker]

2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Has that never happened before?

Well it's obviously happened before that a big storm has been followed by warmth, but it's more freakish now than before. Climate models show declining snow cover in the 21st Century as the snow line recedes north. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

I only got a couple of inches in the January storm. Went into March with something like 23 or 24 inches but finished with nearly 70. Good early season snow, extreme cold for an extended period of time, a freak rager in the middle of golf weather in February and then a stellar, power destroying, forest mangling March. Last winter was far from mediocre.

It depends on which region you're in.  What made it really good is that it had something for everyone   In March I only got significant snow in the last event and the one in early April.  So 3 events, 15 inches in the January storm with 6 straight hours of blizzard conditions and around 8 inches in the late March event and 6 inches in the early April event.  That January event for me was by far the best storm I've seen since Jan 2016.  Which I think you missed out on also

 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

72 inches here last winter, was bullseye for nearly every blizzard. And March was insane. 

wow really? You had significant snow in March outside of the big storm at the end of the month?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

Haven't been in the bullseye since Jan 2016. One day....

you need a really strong el nino to be in the bullseye- just like I do.  SW Nassau County climatology is similar to central coastal NJ climatology.