HVSnowLover Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, Snowlover11 said: sleeting up here in yorktown wow the middle level warming is no joke then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 This event is over for NYC What a joke of a winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Wait,what..over? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowheavyattimes Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 TWC radar says it’s snowing here in Brooklyn but I’m seeing nothing but rain drops. What gives? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowFreak2000 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Give it a bit of time once the precipitation really develops the dynamic cooling will cool the columns and change the sleet up north to snow maybe even in New York City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 33f in croton on hudson. A few frozen droplets falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, SnowFreak2000 said: Give it a bit of time once the precipitation really develops the dynamic cooling will cool the columns and change the sleet up north to snow maybe even in New York City. Yea agree but it will be short lived Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, snowheavyattimes said: TWC radar says it’s snowing here in Brooklyn but I’m seeing nothing but rain drops. What gives? Radarscope is the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Sounds like it's sleeting here, Yonkers/Bronx Border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 rain in brooklyn heights. Those HRRR projected soundings wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Sleet pinging in Upper Manhattan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Yeah the sleet makes sense but the rain is really odd. I guess for a short time here the BL might be near 1500-2000ft deep but odds are everyone north of a SI-New Brunswick line is going to flip to all sleet or snow/sleet when heavier echoes move in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, Mitchel Volk said: rain in brooklyn heights. Those HRRR projected soundings wrong. It’s pretty remarkable how much we are torching the mid layers in an event this weak. This isn’t that strong of a system. It seems we are oerr torching the mids on almost every event this winter beyond anything I’ve ever seen. This isn’t a heavily sleet prone area when you look at long term climo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: It’s pretty remarkable how much we are torching the mid layers in an event this weak. This isn’t that strong of a system. It seems we are oerr torching the mids on almost every event this winter beyond anything I’ve ever seen. This isn’t a heavily sleet prone area when you look at long term climo The low is tracking pretty close to the coast, we haven't really had a good track for a snow event for NYC Metro all winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah the sleet makes sense but the rain is really odd. I guess for a short time here the BL might be near 1500-2000ft deep but odds are everyone north of a SI-New Brunswick line is going to flip to all sleet or snow/sleet when heavier echoes move in Looks like a snow sounding, I guess it is wrong, with surface wet bulb temps supporting snow there must be a decent warm layor out there. Just look at the correlation coefficent in Radar Scope and you see the rain snow line about 40 miles north of th city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, HVSnowLover said: The low is tracking pretty close to the coast, we haven't really had a good track for a snow event for NYC Metro all winter Everything has gone west of us with the -PNA pattern. Some years the coastals lock in like 09-10 where we had Nor'easters on 12/19, 1/30 (south), 2/5 (south), 2/10, 2/26...plus the March rainstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: The low is tracking pretty close to the coast, we haven't really had a good track for a snow event for NYC Metro all winter The main low track isn’t the problem as much as we had a weak low track into PA initially. Had that feature not existed this event probably is all snow here. The coastal track isn’t exactly excellent here but it’s manageable in the right situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: The main low track isn’t the problem as much as we had a weak low track into PA initially. Had that feature not existed this event probably is all snow here. The coastal track isn’t exactly excellent here but it’s manageable in the right situation Yea the low tracking into PA is I believe what's causing the upper levels to warm, if not it'd be more of a rain vs snow scenario and agree the city would probably be able to stay snow given the surface temps are not totally torched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 If Wednesday ends up like the NAM is showing with heavy snow halting a little south of the city that may be the final straw in this winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Heavy sleet out in Suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 hour ago, 495weatherguy said: As I have explained its not that I hate snow--as I have gotten older I don't like it as much--snow is disruptive and big storms are often dangerous. This winter has been bereft of snow, one that we have been due for. You live on the South Shore of Long Island, snow is hard to come by. Our climate is changing. We will see more blockbuster seasons for the next few decades before we eventually reach a critical mass and temps are too warm for snow and I totally blew this one, I’ll admit it. Iight rain uws Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Sleet rain mix south shore Suffolk. 34 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Raining in Long Beach. In Huntington it's probably sleeting there before they turn to rain soon too. Nexxxxt..... winter. Congrats Boston on the jump ahead of NYC they'll have by the end of this (which they probably had anyway due to the lousy Logan measurements). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 11 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Our climate is changing. We will see more blockbuster seasons for the next few decades before we eventually reach a critical mass and temps are too warm for snow and I totally blew this one, I’ll admit it. Iight rain uws Well, I don't think we'll be alive when it's completely too warm for snow. The more aggressive climate models as reported by the New York Times showed NYC's climate to be akin to the current climate of the Arkansas/Missouri border by 2080-2100. The less aggressive and lower emissions models showed NYC's climate in the 2080-2100 period being akin to the current climate of DC. Both of those areas still receive SOME snow. And the climate warming may lead to more disruptions of the polar vortex and a more negative AO, which will limit the warming here at the expense of a rapidly warming Arctic. But yes, we rate to see significant changes in our lives. We have already seen some: the higher summertime dewpoints, increased variability in winter snowfall, growing frequency of blockbuster storms. It will be sad, especially for us winter lovers, but it's the world we've created. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Temp down to 32 here with sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Raining in Long Beach. In Huntington it's probably sleeting there before they turn to rain soon too. Nexxxxt..... winter. Congrats Boston on the jump ahead of NYC they'll have by the end of this (which they probably had anyway due to the lousy Logan measurements). They’re not gonna do very well either based on how things are unfolding right now. They might be lucky if they get 3-4 out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: They’re not gonna do very well either based on how things are unfolding right now. They might be lucky if they get 3-4 out of this The hangback snow looks pretty good there after the low passes through. Maybe it'll be showery stuff but it's the type of system they should bank a few inches on easy. A nice climo reminder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 35 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: If Wednesday ends up like the NAM is showing with heavy snow halting a little south of the city that may be the final straw in this winter Where have you seen this gradient before? How about almost every event Jan-Feb Seen a lot of winters but never one like this and hope never again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, RedSky said: Where have you seen this gradient before? How about almost every event Jan-Feb Seen a lot of winters but never one like this and hope never again The models are destroying the short wave as it crosses PA. That’s probably not going to happen, or at least not as early as shown. If I lived in Hartford I might be more concerned right now about Wednesday but I think even if you took the track shown by the 00Z NAM exactly that the short wave wouldn’t go to crap as fast as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, RedSky said: Where have you seen this gradient before? How about almost every event Jan-Feb Seen a lot of winters but never one like this and hope never again Just the ultimate FU, Boston gets its snow tonight, and then confluence kills the Wed event and DC gets slammed again. Not saying that happens, but it would be the cherry on top of this disaster of a "winter". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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