donsutherland1 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Based on the latest guidance through 18z, I have little changes to my thinking from yesterday. My final estimates are as follows: Albany: 3"-6" Binghamton: 2"-4" Boston: 2"-4" Bridgeport: 1"-3" Concord: 1"-3" Hartford: 2"-4" Islip: 1" or less (initial estimate was 1"-2") New City: 1"-3" New York City: 1" or less Newark: 1" or less Portland: 1" or less Poughkeepsie: 2"-4" Providence" 3"-6" Scranton: 2"-4" White Plains: 1"-3" Worcester: 3"-6" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 18 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I’m 37 degrees here in Sloatsburg. The NAM and HRRR want nothing to do with tonight. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021718&fh=36 32 in wantagh right on the bay http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#?stid=WANT its going to snow everywhere but maybe the jersey shore 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: 32 in wantagh right on the bay http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#?stid=WANT its going to snow everywhere but maybe the jersey shore Start as snow everywhere probably, it won't be all snow for the immediate metro area, if we are lucky we get mainly sleet and not rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Temp is 31.8 Clouded over now.. Hoping to get 3" here which would bring season total to 26". That's still a pretty pathetic snow total for here coming in to the later half of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Temp is 32 with a low dew point. I don't see how it is not going to snow a little later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 33/15 here will be no problems here! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 The HRRR still showing the precip field should explode 00-02Z across E PA and NJ. If it does everyone will snow for awhile 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Yea the current temps/dewpoints argue for a snow/sleet event, mid level warming may make this more of a sleet event or possibly even ZR especially in the usual colder spots away from the immediate coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowFreak2000 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Hrrr is very cold and stays mostly snow the whole entire time for the city. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Basin-wide neutral-warm ENSO conditions persist. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.30°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.40°C for the week centered around February 6. For the past five weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Basin-wide, neutral-warm ENSO conditions are not conducive for large snowstorms in northern Mid-Atlantic cities including New York and Philadelphia during February. Such ENSO conditions will likely persist through February with some possible fluctuations to levels consistent with weak El Niño events. Under such a scenario, the probability of a significant snowfall (6" or more) will be well below climatology for the northern Mid-Atlantic region. The SOI was -29.88 today. That's the lowest figure since the SOI was at -30.78 on September 8, 2018. That's also the seventh consecutive day during which the SOI was -10.00 or below. The last time the SOI was at or below -10.00 for seven consecutive days was August 9-16, 2018. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.556. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.147. Should the AO average +1.066 or above for the remainder of February, it would finish with a meteorological winter average +0.001. Based on historic experience (1950-2018) when the AO reached +3.000 or above during the February 1-15 period, the AO will likely remain predominantly positive through most of the second half of February. There still remains a possibility that the AO could head toward neutral or negative levels during the last week of the month, but probably not until after the AO again rises toward +3.000 or above. On February 16, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.281 (RMM). The amplitude was above the February 15-adjusted figure of 1.023. The MJO could spend an extended duration in Phase 8. The combination of a neutral-warm ENSO and a powerful polar vortex responsible for the strongly positive AO remain the dominant factors driving the pattern evolution. They will likely continue to predominate over the next week. As a result, MJO convection will have little meaningful impact on the larger pattern during that time. The SOI remains at very negative levels. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. As a result, precipitation will likely be above to much above normal in both the Southwestern United States (including California) and Southeastern United States. There could be several opportunities for snowfall in the East in coming days, the first of which is tonight into tomorrow. However, the probability of significant snowfall events (6" or more) is well below climatology (but not zero) for the Middle Atlantic region. Central/Upstate New York across central and northern New England have a greater probability of seeing significant snow events. Given this context, it is likely that the snow event for parts of the region later today into tomorrow will be largely unimpressive. Central Park will likely pick up 1" or less of snow. Meanwhile, snow-starved Boston (where just 4.8" snow has fallen to date) could pick up 2"-4" snow. The next storm could bring a moderate snowfall (a general 3"-6") to an area focused on Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Washington on Wednesday into Thursday, but lesser snowfall from New York City into southern New England. Based on historic data following similar ENSO conditions to those of February 2019, March 1-15 could provide perhaps the final window of opportunity for a moderate or significant snowstorm in the New York City area. Afterward, pronounced warming could limit opportunities for snowfall. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Up in yorktown for the night, 32/18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Based on the latest guidance through 18z, I have little changes to my thinking from yesterday. My final estimates are as follows: Albany: 3"-6" Binghamton: 2"-4" Boston: 2"-4" Bridgeport: 1"-3" Concord: 1"-3" Hartford: 2"-4" Islip: 1" or less (initial estimate was 1"-2") New City: 1"-3" New York City: 1" or less Newark: 1" or less Portland: 1" or less Poughkeepsie: 2"-4" Providence" 3"-6" Scranton: 2"-4" White Plains: 1"-3" Worcester: 3"-6" Nice forecast, I agree 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowFreak2000 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 My forecast Albany: 4 Binghamton: 3 Boston: 3 Bridgeport: 3 Concord: 1 Hartford: 4 Islip: 2 New City: 3 New York City: 2 Newark: 1 Portland: dusting Poughkeepsie: 4 Providence 6 Scranton: 3 White Plains: 3 Worcester: 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 First couple flakes starting to fall here. Temp 30.6 DP 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Based on the latest guidance through 18z, I have little changes to my thinking from yesterday. My final estimates are as follows: Albany: 3"-6" Binghamton: 2"-4" Boston: 2"-4" Bridgeport: 1"-3" Concord: 1"-3" Hartford: 2"-4" Islip: 1" or less (initial estimate was 1"-2") New City: 1"-3" New York City: 1" or less Newark: 1" or less Portland: 1" or less Poughkeepsie: 2"-4" Providence" 3"-6" Scranton: 2"-4" White Plains: 1"-3" Worcester: 3"-6" Don thanks again for INCLUDING my neck of the woods in your thoughts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 HRRRRRRRRR just got worse the city. Wasn't following this little system but was hoping for a little surprise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Not expecting more than an inch here in White Plains. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 12 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Not expecting more than an inch here in White Plains. If the new HRRR is right, we are getting less than an inch of snow, total. I’m talking maybe a half inch: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021800&fh=16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 5 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Explain to me how posting pics of snow is not part of a weather forum but constant reminders of how you hate snow is? It’s turned into an every day thing and it’s getting really old. Nice onshore flow currently on the south shore, which is my reasoning for low expectation right at the coast. This is a 20 miles inland event. As I have explained its not that I hate snow--as I have gotten older I don't like it as much--snow is disruptive and big storms are often dangerous. This winter has been bereft of snow, one that we have been due for. You live on the South Shore of Long Island, snow is hard to come by. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, 495weatherguy said: As I have explained its not that I hate snow--as I have gotten older I don't like it as much--snow is disruptive and big storms are often dangerous. This winter has been bereft of snow, one that we have been due for. You live on the South Shore of Long Island, snow is hard to come by. Relax. It is entirely appropriate to offer opinions on the weather in a weather forum. If not here, where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If the new HRRR is right, we are getting less than an inch of snow, total. I’m talking maybe a half inch: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021800&fh=16 Looks pretty terrible everywhere, no surprise the way this winter is going 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: Relax. It is entirely appropriate to offer opinions on the weather in a weather forum. If not here, where? I'm not upset--its ok for people to enjoy different types of winter weather---even on a weather board dominated by snow lovers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, 495weatherguy said: I'm not upset--its ok for people to enjoy different types of winter weather---even on a weather board dominated by snow lovers People are just frustrated, but really, there's nothing to be done about it. There are other things in life. A huge chunk of the world's population lives just fine without snow. Never met a person who grew up in a warm climate who wanted to remain where it snows. And I have met many. Snow is deeply unpopular. I happen to like it, and am disappointed this latest event is nothing much, and don't have any hopes for Wed, or even the remainder of this winter. But it will snow again at some point. We'll always have next winter....less than a year away! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Latest NAM actually a bit more juicy for the city but it's mostly rain southern parts, sleet to ZR or rain northern parts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Not looking good here in Sheepshead Bay. Temp up to 36 from 34. Dew point 29. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 34 and rain in Westchester. Dont know what that means for city and Long Island...but cant be good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, jfklganyc said: 34 and rain in Westchester. Dont know what that means for city and Long Island...but cant be good Very light precip probably, when heavier stuff gets here it will be sleet or snow for Northern NYC/Westchester at least at the start 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, weathermedic said: Not looking good here in Sheepshead Bay. Temp up to 36 from 34. Dew point 29. Yup 35 all along the south shore with a south wind 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Yup 35 all along the south shore with a south wind 32/27 up here in nw Suffolk, we should get some frozen out of this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 sleeting up here in yorktown 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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