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February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread


Stormlover74

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  On 2/17/2019 at 8:05 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

Winds start backing though over the next several hours to more E.  Even with a S-SE wind now everyone has underachieved on highs.  The problem with this event is best QPF is north and a warm nose in the mid levels will work in. 

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That warm air advection moves in after most of the qpf is done with. I still think nyc proper changes to sleet not rain, and after it gets a solid 1-3 inches. Bronx obviously has a higher chance at 3. 

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  On 2/17/2019 at 8:05 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

Winds start backing though over the next several hours to more E.  Even with a S-SE wind now everyone has underachieved on highs.  The problem with this event is best QPF is north and a warm nose in the mid levels will work in. 

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I still think there are issues right at the coast, but turning the winds more east could help. Dews are great for this event. We should all wet bulb nicely. 

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  On 2/17/2019 at 7:15 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

Well maybe the Euro is right where we want it for Wednesday.  Has axis of heaviest snow south of us but has slowly been coming north.  Maybe we can angle that think right across the area 

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Yea I'm noticing the models are trending north with the snow for Wednesday, skeptical but think theres a chance 

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  On 2/17/2019 at 8:09 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I still think there are issues right at the coast, but turning the winds more east could help. Dews are great for this event. We should all wet bulb nicely. 

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I think tonights a mess of precip types for the metro area but probably doesn't lead to any impactful accumulation  

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  On 2/17/2019 at 7:28 PM, NEG NAO said:

I started a new thread for the mid-week event as the 12Z Euro is showing a good chance of at least advisory level snow/ice possible throughout the region

 

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Oh really? I would have had no idea based on this thread. I just see a lot of complaining and bickering. It would be nice if we saw more model analysis in this thread for those who don't have access.

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  On 2/17/2019 at 8:27 PM, uncle W said:

NYC needs 1.3" to reach 10" for the season...not the great winter I was expecting...I guess we were due for a clunker...the winter has some similarities with the 1936-37 winter...that winter ended up with 16" for the season...

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How much in actual winter without the November storm

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  On 2/17/2019 at 8:01 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Explain to me how posting pics of snow is not part of a weather forum but constant reminders of how you hate snow is? It’s turned into an every day thing and it’s getting really old.

Nice onshore flow currently on the south shore, which is my reasoning for low expectation right at the coast. This is a 20 miles inland event.

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Older than people predicting cold and snow for the last 90 days? Seems appropriate that people on a weather forum might be inclined to opine on said weather....everyone needs to lighten up a bit. If I want dry analysis I can just go read the forecast discussion at Mt. Holly.

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  On 2/17/2019 at 8:35 PM, bluewave said:

Just a little more to go to get out of the top 10 lowest snowfall seasons on record. 

1 1972-1973 2.8 0
2 2001-2002 3.5 0
3 1918-1919 3.8 1
4 1900-1901 5.1 2
5 1931-1932 5.3 0
6 1997-1998 5.5 0
7 2011-2012 7.4 0
8 1988-1989 8.1 0
- 1877-1878 8.1 0
10 2018-2019 8.7 226
11 1950-1951 9.3 0
12 1996-1997 10.0
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The entire EPS run into the 1st week of March looks bad for snowstorms and it’s not even cold, just seasonable. Looks straight zonal and semi-zonal, still -PNA and it shows a severely positive NAO at the end of the run

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  On 2/17/2019 at 8:39 PM, snowman19 said:

The entire EPS run into the 1st week of March looks bad for snowstorms and it’s not even cold, just seasonable. Looks straight zonal and semi-zonal, still -PNA and it shows a severely positive NAO at the end of the run

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I really don’t look at the EPS much past day 10. FWIW, it’s showing a gradient pattern near the end of the month. We’ll see how things look once we get closer.

F9F771ED-A9CA-45AB-89DA-5A2DFAAF9CC7.thumb.jpeg.02f5609a0af1259e05dc3b913ea9aaaa.jpeg

 

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  On 2/17/2019 at 8:35 PM, bluewave said:

Just a little more to go to get out of the top 10 lowest snowfall seasons on record. 

1 1972-1973 2.8 0
2 2001-2002 3.5 0
3 1918-1919 3.8 1
4 1900-1901 5.1 2
5 1931-1932 5.3 0
6 1997-1998 5.5 0
7 2011-2012 7.4 0
8 1988-1989 8.1 0
- 1877-1878 8.1 0
10 2018-2019 8.7 226
11 1950-1951 9.3 0
12 1996-1997 10.0
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1900-01 should be 9.1"...50-51... 11"...

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

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  On 2/17/2019 at 9:05 PM, IrishRob17 said:

A gradient pattern near the end of the month 

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Well, thanks for clearing that up. I'm gonna be a little bit honest here, and say my knowledge of weather is rather limited. Shocking, I know, but true. All I know about gradients is that I'm often on the wrong side of them.

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  On 2/17/2019 at 8:56 PM, weatherpruf said:

So what should we make of that?

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The -EPO ridge starts pressing eastward near Alaska. This causes the cold currently focused out West to slowly filter to the east near the end of the month. Sometimes we can get wintery threats if we are on the right side of the gradient. Still need some more time to know for sure how the actual pattern will set up at the start of March. 

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  On 2/17/2019 at 9:34 PM, bluewave said:

The -EPO ridge starts pressing eastward near Alaska. This causes the cold currently focused out West to slowly filter to the east near the end of the month. Sometimes we can get wintery threats if we are on the right side of the gradient. Still need some more time to know for sure how the actual pattern will set up at the start of March. 

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Do these recent Bering Sea storms that are creating warm weather in Alaska have anything to do with this?

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  On 2/17/2019 at 9:56 PM, HVSnowLover said:

tonights event starting to look lousy due to both temps and lack of precip for anyone south of Orange/Putnam county, what else is new with the last minute warming trend. 

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I’m 37 degrees here in Sloatsburg. The NAM and HRRR want nothing to do with tonight. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021718&fh=36

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  On 2/17/2019 at 10:09 PM, snowman19 said:

I’m 37 degrees here in Sloatsburg. The NAM and HRRR want nothing to do with tonight. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021718&fh=36

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Yea it's not a very good setup the good qpf goes north and south of the tri state area. 33 degree light snow/sleet is not going to accumulate much and thats the best case scenario if it's not rain.

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  On 2/17/2019 at 10:09 PM, snowman19 said:

I’m 37 degrees here in Sloatsburg. The NAM and HRRR want nothing to do with tonight. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021718&fh=36

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Stop speaking in absolutes. That still shows 1 or 2 inch snow depth change lower HV and 3-4 in my area. Did you think this was going to be a big storm?

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  On 2/17/2019 at 10:14 PM, HeadInTheClouds said:

Stop speaking in absolutes. That still snows 1 or 2 inch snow depth change lower HV and 3-4 in my area. Did you think this was going to be a big storm?

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Yea this doesn't speak region wide, I would expect 3+ inches in Hyde Park, As I said I predict the cutoff to Orange/Putnam as it has been all winter 

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  On 2/17/2019 at 10:23 PM, HeadInTheClouds said:

Im expecting 3, maybe 4 and none of the 18z guidance argues against that. Anything more would be a bonus. 

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Agree. It's actually 35/17 here which is colder than I would've expected but none the models all seem to have the freezing line NW of the city tonight 

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