SnowFreak2000 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 On 2/17/2019 at 8:05 PM, SnowGoose69 said: Winds start backing though over the next several hours to more E. Even with a S-SE wind now everyone has underachieved on highs. The problem with this event is best QPF is north and a warm nose in the mid levels will work in. Expand That warm air advection moves in after most of the qpf is done with. I still think nyc proper changes to sleet not rain, and after it gets a solid 1-3 inches. Bronx obviously has a higher chance at 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 On 2/17/2019 at 8:05 PM, SnowGoose69 said: Winds start backing though over the next several hours to more E. Even with a S-SE wind now everyone has underachieved on highs. The problem with this event is best QPF is north and a warm nose in the mid levels will work in. Expand I still think there are issues right at the coast, but turning the winds more east could help. Dews are great for this event. We should all wet bulb nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 On 2/17/2019 at 7:15 PM, SnowGoose69 said: Well maybe the Euro is right where we want it for Wednesday. Has axis of heaviest snow south of us but has slowly been coming north. Maybe we can angle that think right across the area Expand Yea I'm noticing the models are trending north with the snow for Wednesday, skeptical but think theres a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 On 2/17/2019 at 8:09 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I still think there are issues right at the coast, but turning the winds more east could help. Dews are great for this event. We should all wet bulb nicely. Expand I think tonights a mess of precip types for the metro area but probably doesn't lead to any impactful accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 If you want to talk about the mid-week event which has more potential region wide then tonight's event a new thread has been started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 NYC needs 1.3" to reach 10" for the season...not the great winter I was expecting...I guess we were due for a clunker...the winter has some similarities with the 1936-37 winter...that winter ended up with 16" for the season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 On 2/17/2019 at 7:28 PM, NEG NAO said: I started a new thread for the mid-week event as the 12Z Euro is showing a good chance of at least advisory level snow/ice possible throughout the region Expand Oh really? I would have had no idea based on this thread. I just see a lot of complaining and bickering. It would be nice if we saw more model analysis in this thread for those who don't have access. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 On 2/17/2019 at 8:27 PM, uncle W said: NYC needs 1.3" to reach 10" for the season...not the great winter I was expecting...I guess we were due for a clunker...the winter has some similarities with the 1936-37 winter...that winter ended up with 16" for the season... Expand How much in actual winter without the November storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 On 2/17/2019 at 8:01 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Explain to me how posting pics of snow is not part of a weather forum but constant reminders of how you hate snow is? It’s turned into an every day thing and it’s getting really old. Nice onshore flow currently on the south shore, which is my reasoning for low expectation right at the coast. This is a 20 miles inland event. Expand Older than people predicting cold and snow for the last 90 days? Seems appropriate that people on a weather forum might be inclined to opine on said weather....everyone needs to lighten up a bit. If I want dry analysis I can just go read the forecast discussion at Mt. Holly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 On 2/17/2019 at 8:35 PM, bluewave said: Just a little more to go to get out of the top 10 lowest snowfall seasons on record. 1 1972-1973 2.8 0 2 2001-2002 3.5 0 3 1918-1919 3.8 1 4 1900-1901 5.1 2 5 1931-1932 5.3 0 6 1997-1998 5.5 0 7 2011-2012 7.4 0 8 1988-1989 8.1 0 - 1877-1878 8.1 0 10 2018-2019 8.7 226 11 1950-1951 9.3 0 12 1996-1997 10.0 Expand The entire EPS run into the 1st week of March looks bad for snowstorms and it’s not even cold, just seasonable. Looks straight zonal and semi-zonal, still -PNA and it shows a severely positive NAO at the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 On 2/17/2019 at 8:39 PM, snowman19 said: The entire EPS run into the 1st week of March looks bad for snowstorms and it’s not even cold, just seasonable. Looks straight zonal and semi-zonal, still -PNA and it shows a severely positive NAO at the end of the run Expand I really don’t look at the EPS much past day 10. FWIW, it’s showing a gradient pattern near the end of the month. We’ll see how things look once we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 18Z Nam gives some good amounts in lower and mid HV tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 I guess Upton is buying the NAM and HRRR, they just dropped Rockland County to 1-3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 On 2/17/2019 at 8:45 PM, bluewave said: I really don’t look at the EPS much past day 10. FWIW, it’s showing a gradient pattern near the end of the month. We’ll see how things look once we get closer. Expand So what should we make of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 On 2/17/2019 at 8:56 PM, weatherpruf said: So what should we make of that? Expand A gradient pattern near the end of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 On 2/17/2019 at 8:35 PM, bluewave said: Just a little more to go to get out of the top 10 lowest snowfall seasons on record. 1 1972-1973 2.8 0 2 2001-2002 3.5 0 3 1918-1919 3.8 1 4 1900-1901 5.1 2 5 1931-1932 5.3 0 6 1997-1998 5.5 0 7 2011-2012 7.4 0 8 1988-1989 8.1 0 - 1877-1878 8.1 0 10 2018-2019 8.7 226 11 1950-1951 9.3 0 12 1996-1997 10.0 Expand 1900-01 should be 9.1"...50-51... 11"... https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 On 2/17/2019 at 9:05 PM, IrishRob17 said: A gradient pattern near the end of the month Expand Well, thanks for clearing that up. I'm gonna be a little bit honest here, and say my knowledge of weather is rather limited. Shocking, I know, but true. All I know about gradients is that I'm often on the wrong side of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowFreak2000 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 On 2/17/2019 at 9:05 PM, IrishRob17 said: A gradient pattern near the end of the month Expand Usually New England does very well not us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 On 2/17/2019 at 8:56 PM, weatherpruf said: So what should we make of that? Expand Euro pops a positive PNA. Better pattern than we are in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 On 2/17/2019 at 8:56 PM, weatherpruf said: So what should we make of that? Expand The -EPO ridge starts pressing eastward near Alaska. This causes the cold currently focused out West to slowly filter to the east near the end of the month. Sometimes we can get wintery threats if we are on the right side of the gradient. Still need some more time to know for sure how the actual pattern will set up at the start of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 On 2/17/2019 at 9:30 PM, Snow88 said: Euro pops a positive PNA. Better pattern than we are in now. Expand Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 On 2/17/2019 at 9:34 PM, bluewave said: The -EPO ridge starts pressing eastward near Alaska. This causes the cold currently focused out West to slowly filter to the east near the end of the month. Sometimes we can get wintery threats if we are on the right side of the gradient. Still need some more time to know for sure how the actual pattern will set up at the start of March. Expand Do these recent Bering Sea storms that are creating warm weather in Alaska have anything to do with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 tonights event starting to look lousy due to both temps and lack of precip for anyone south of Orange/Putnam county, what else is new with the last minute warming trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 On 2/17/2019 at 9:56 PM, HVSnowLover said: tonights event starting to look lousy due to both temps and lack of precip for anyone south of Orange/Putnam county, what else is new with the last minute warming trend. Expand I’m 37 degrees here in Sloatsburg. The NAM and HRRR want nothing to do with tonight. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021718&fh=36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 On 2/17/2019 at 10:09 PM, snowman19 said: I’m 37 degrees here in Sloatsburg. The NAM and HRRR want nothing to do with tonight. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021718&fh=36 Expand Yea it's not a very good setup the good qpf goes north and south of the tri state area. 33 degree light snow/sleet is not going to accumulate much and thats the best case scenario if it's not rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 On 2/17/2019 at 10:09 PM, snowman19 said: I’m 37 degrees here in Sloatsburg. The NAM and HRRR want nothing to do with tonight. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021718&fh=36 Expand Stop speaking in absolutes. That still shows 1 or 2 inch snow depth change lower HV and 3-4 in my area. Did you think this was going to be a big storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 On 2/17/2019 at 10:14 PM, HeadInTheClouds said: Stop speaking in absolutes. That still snows 1 or 2 inch snow depth change lower HV and 3-4 in my area. Did you think this was going to be a big storm? Expand Yea this doesn't speak region wide, I would expect 3+ inches in Hyde Park, As I said I predict the cutoff to Orange/Putnam as it has been all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 On 2/17/2019 at 10:09 PM, snowman19 said: I’m 37 degrees here in Sloatsburg. The NAM and HRRR want nothing to do with tonight. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021718&fh=36 Expand Whats your DP? My temp is 35 but my DP is 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 On 2/17/2019 at 10:16 PM, HVSnowLover said: Yea this doesn't speak region wide, I would expect 3-6 inches in Hyde Park, As I said I predict the cutoff to Orange/Putnam as it has been all winter Expand Im expecting 3, maybe 4 and none of the 18z guidance argues against that. Anything more would be a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 On 2/17/2019 at 10:23 PM, HeadInTheClouds said: Im expecting 3, maybe 4 and none of the 18z guidance argues against that. Anything more would be a bonus. Expand Agree. It's actually 35/17 here which is colder than I would've expected but none the models all seem to have the freezing line NW of the city tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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