MJO812 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 17 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: there goes Snow88's argument out the window Not at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 23 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Right now, as it slips toward low amplitude, the MJO’s impact will likely be muted. How so ? Isn't there a lag with the mjo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The EPS has a higher amplitude, but it has been performing very badly on the MJO. The consensus of the guidance favors considerable time near lower amplitudes. Until the EPS does better, it makes sense to lean toward the consensus. Finally, the post-split polar vortex is very strong. That will favor a general continuation of AO+ conditions. There are signs of a positive pna on the euro ,gfs, gefs and eps near the 25th and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The EPS has a higher amplitude, but it has been performing very badly on the MJO. The consensus of the guidance favors considerable time near lower amplitudes. Until the EPS does better, it makes sense to lean toward the consensus. Finally, the post-split polar vortex is very strong. That will favor a general continuation of AO+ conditions. Thanks Don. Looking forward to spring at this point if conditions are not favorable for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 25 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: I agree with your statement in principle---however I am on LI--Winter Storms in Early March are unusual here, save for the last 15 years or so Long Island has done better in March than December with snowfall over the last 4 years. The bar is set very low this March since ISP only had a trace in December. Dec...18.....T.........Mar.....19......? Dec....17....6.0......Mar.....18....31.9 Dec.....16....3.7.....Mar.....17....7.4 Dec.....15.....T.......Mar.....16.....3.2 Dec.....14.....0.4....Mar.....15.....19.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: TBH as odd as the RGEM snow distribution for tonight has been the 06Z Euro is almost as odd with 2-4 NYC west into New Jersey and also Connecticut coast but basically nothing for LI. That shows you right there be careful with snow maps. It's rain NYC and Long Island it's not "odd" the boundary layer warms right up with East winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 21 minutes ago, Snow88 said: How so ? Isn't there a lag with the mjo? Yes, but at lower amplitudes, the MJO’s forcing is weaker overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 22 minutes ago, Snow88 said: There are signs of a positive pna on the euro ,gfs, gefs and eps near the 25th and beyond. I think March 1-15 will offer opportunity, especially as the subtropical jet will be active. We’ll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 15 minutes ago, qg_omega said: It's rain NYC and Long Island it's not "odd" the boundary layer warms right up with East winds. I’ll make sure to post lots of pics of NYC snow tonight. Dews rule again. And do I need to remind everyone this is a weather forum? There is a ridiculous amount of banter in here today. We get it, you do not like snow. So post about it in banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Those expecting March to bring us back to normal snowfall need to temper the expectations. Most of the biggest snowfall Marches would still fail to get us to normal unless this week can over achieve. Looking at the data and the snowfall year to date, I would give this season over a 75% chance at finishing below average for snowfall. That doesn't mean it is impossible to get to or go above average, but it just isn't statistically likely. If you want to see lots of snow this season, book your trips up to Killington, Stowe, Whiteface, etc. You can be upset with the lack of snowfall in NYC metro, but this season, if you have not seen the snow you want, that is on you. A day trip north can definitely let you enjoy winter and lots of it. I would have been skiing a lot more than I have this year, but it is much harder to travel with a 5-month old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 This looks to be a solid 2-5” just north of the city, perhaps a touch more for those of us in Uptons northern zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: Those expecting March to bring us back to normal snowfall need to temper the expectations. Most of the biggest snowfall Marches would still fail to get us to normal unless this week can over achieve. Looking at the data and the snowfall year to date, I would give this season over a 75% chance at finishing below average for snowfall. That doesn't mean it is impossible to get to or go above average, but it just isn't statistically likely. If you want to see lots of snow this season, book your trips up to Killington, Stowe, Whiteface, etc. You can be upset with the lack of snowfall in NYC metro, but this season, if you have not seen the snow you want, that is on you. A day trip north can definitely let you enjoy winter and lots of it. I would have been skiing a lot more than I have this year, but it is much harder to travel with a 5-month old. I don't see anyone saying March will get people back to normal. That doesn't mean there won't be some snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: Those expecting March to bring us back to normal snowfall need to temper the expectations. Most of the biggest snowfall Marches would still fail to get us to normal unless this week can over achieve. Looking at the data and the snowfall year to date, I would give this season over a 75% chance at finishing below average for snowfall. That doesn't mean it is impossible to get to or go above average, but it just isn't statistically likely. If you want to see lots of snow this season, book your trips up to Killington, Stowe, Whiteface, etc. You can be upset with the lack of snowfall in NYC metro, but this season, if you have not seen the snow you want, that is on you. A day trip north can definitely let you enjoy winter and lots of it. I would have been skiing a lot more than I have this year, but it is much harder to travel with a 5-month old. I’m thinking NYC, EWR, and PHL will probably finish with 15”-25” seasonal snowfall. The neutral-warm ENSO conditions that have persisted for the last five weeks have largely capped the potential. In some ways, 2018-2019 may wind up having been a “near miss” from a 2001-02 type of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: I don't see anyone saying March will get people back to normal. That doesn't mean there won't be some snow though. People need to give this winter a rest. It's been a flop and there's no miracle coming to save us. March 2018 ain't walking through that door. Better luck next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 24 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: Those expecting March to bring us back to normal snowfall need to temper the expectations. Most of the biggest snowfall Marches would still fail to get us to normal unless this week can over achieve. Looking at the data and the snowfall year to date, I would give this season over a 75% chance at finishing below average for snowfall. That doesn't mean it is impossible to get to or go above average, but it just isn't statistically likely. If you want to see lots of snow this season, book your trips up to Killington, Stowe, Whiteface, etc. You can be upset with the lack of snowfall in NYC metro, but this season, if you have not seen the snow you want, that is on you. A day trip north can definitely let you enjoy winter and lots of it. I would have been skiing a lot more than I have this year, but it is much harder to travel with a 5-month old. Bingo! I've been in several awesome winter storms this winter within 2 to 3 hours of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: People need to give this winter a rest. It's been a flop and there's no miracle coming to save us. March 2018 ain't walking through that door. Better luck next winter. I'm bumping this post if we get more snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Finally a positive pna on the euro next week. Every model has it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 16 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: Bingo! I've been in several awesome winter storms this winter within 2 to 3 hours of the city I was in one in November in Cooperstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Well maybe the Euro is right where we want it for Wednesday. Has axis of heaviest snow south of us but has slowly been coming north. Maybe we can angle that think right across the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 49 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: Those expecting March to bring us back to normal snowfall need to temper the expectations. Most of the biggest snowfall Marches would still fail to get us to normal unless this week can over achieve. Looking at the data and the snowfall year to date, I would give this season over a 75% chance at finishing below average for snowfall. That doesn't mean it is impossible to get to or go above average, but it just isn't statistically likely. If you want to see lots of snow this season, book your trips up to Killington, Stowe, Whiteface, etc. You can be upset with the lack of snowfall in NYC metro, but this season, if you have not seen the snow you want, that is on you. A day trip north can definitely let you enjoy winter and lots of it. I would have been skiing a lot more than I have this year, but it is much harder to travel with a 5-month old. You do have to look at recent history and March has been the snowiest month in NYC in 3 of the last 4 winters. Of course that doesn't mean this March will produce and with 8.7 inches right now in Central Park, it would have to be a heck of a March to get to the 29 year average (Jan 1991- Jan 2019) which currently stands at 30.7 inches per season. However I could see this March being the snowiest of the season for the 4th time in 5 years. The bar is pretty low, it only has to beat the 6.4 inches from November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 I started a new thread for the mid-week event as the 12Z Euro is showing a good chance of at least advisory level snow/ice possible throughout the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, SnowFreak2000 said: Latest HRRR never really switches to rain for New York City area. It does switch to some sleet but it’s a general 1-3 inches. cloudy and 36 in white plains at this time. There’s probably gonna be more snow tonight for NYC than from the storm a few days ago which is really sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 13 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: You do have to look at recent history and March has been the snowiest month in NYC in 3 of the last 4 winters. Of course that doesn't mean this March will produce and with 8.7 inches right now in Central Park, it would have to be a heck of a March to get to the 29 year average (Jan 1991- Jan 2019) which currently stands at 30.7 inches per season. However I could see this March being the snowiest of the season for the 4th time in 5 years. The bar is pretty low, it only has to beat the 6.4 inches from November. from 1956-1960 March was the snowiest month and had the biggest snowfalls...the only year that had below average snowfall in March was 1957 and it had an April snowfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: There’s probably gonna be more snow tonight for NYC than from the storm a few days ago which is really sad. NYC had less than an inch last week, looks same tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: NYC had less than an inch last week, looks same tonight. 1.2” but I guess you can call it less than an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: NYC had less than an inch last week, looks same tonight. There's no way of knowing this. Could be a coating, could be 3 inches. People shouldn't make absolute statements one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 14 minutes ago, SnowFreak2000 said: Latest HRRR never really switches to rain for New York City area. It does switch to some sleet but it’s a general 1-3 inches. cloudy and 36 in white plains at this time. another white plains neighbor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, qg_omega said: NYC had less than an inch last week, looks same tonight. I think you’ll be surprised tonight. It may be more SNPL at times but I think most of this event is ultimately frozen for northern sides of the metro because after 09Z we will likely dry slot and it ends. The onshore flow is just weak sauce. It’s too light and not established over a long fetch. If places like EWR/LGA/NYC get much over 33-34 after they wet bulb down I would be surprised. I’m more confident the mid levels sneak over 0C near 700 causing SNPL after 06Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 45 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: Don’t be so sanctimonious. Posting pics of snow? That’s not banter? Please Explain to me how posting pics of snow is not part of a weather forum but constant reminders of how you hate snow is? It’s turned into an every day thing and it’s getting really old. Nice onshore flow currently on the south shore, which is my reasoning for low expectation right at the coast. This is a 20 miles inland event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Explain to me how posting pics of snow is not part of a weather forum but constant reminders of how you hate snow is? It’s turned into an every day thing and it’s getting really old. Nice onshore flow currently on the south shore, which is my reasoning for low expectation right at the coast. This is a 20 miles inland event. Winds start backing though over the next several hours to more E. Even with a S-SE wind now everyone has underachieved on highs. The problem with this event is best QPF is north and a warm nose in the mid levels will work in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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