MJO812 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: NAM is actually a pretty good improvement for tonight for the Metro area Dew points are going to be low so the latest Nam is not shocking at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 17 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: It's still winter but that doesn't mean we can't hope for spring like weather to arrive early; used to happen a lot back in the day. There hasn’t been much middle ground with Marches during the 2010’s. While most have been cold, the few warm ones were record warm. NYC March 2018....-2-4 2017....-3.3 2016....+6.4 2015.....-4.4 2014....-4.8 2013.....-2.4 2012....+8.4 2011....-0.2 2010...+5.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 21 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Dew points are going to be low so the latest Nam is not shocking at all. It also has precip arriving a bit earlier which as stated above is so important in these events. Given that the precip comes in at night I don't think surface temps will be that warm but the mid level warming unfortunately presents the risk of 33-34 degree rain but hoping we see more sleet, less rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 20 minutes ago, bluewave said: There hasn’t been much middle ground with Marches during the 2010’s. While most have been cold, the few warm ones were record warm. NYC March 2018....-2-4 2017....-3.3 2016....+6.4 2015.....-4.4 2014....-4.8 2013.....-2.4 2012....+8.4 2011....-0.2 2010...+5.7 I hope this is a record warm March, I'll take anything to completely blast this winter into oblivion. It's been the worst winter ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I hope this is a record warm March, I'll take anything to completely blast this winter into oblivion. It's been the worst winter ever. Agree if it's going to barely snow rather it feel comfortable outside Agree with one of the worst winters ever, the entire winter lacked one event that was all snow or even all frozen for anyone in/near the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 31 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: It's still winter but that doesn't mean we can't hope for spring like weather to arrive early; used to happen a lot back in the day. Let’s hope for an early spring! A steady warm up, longer days, cool evenings. Sounds wonderful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: I agree but he does have a point if the models are wrong with the placement. It's still winter The MIO is now in 8 and going into 1. There is a lag so it will not surprise me if we get snow in the 1st week of March Warm pattern ? Based off what? Well it looks like Thurs-Mon all feature AN temps, no? That gives us 2 days to look for a February event...and we are into March. End of February comes up real quick. If we salvage something tonight, we had 3 solid days of snow cover from last storm and will have 3 days of solid cover before that 50 on Thursday with this storm. I guess I will take it in a snowless winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, jfklganyc said: Well it looks like Thurs-Mon all feature AN temps, no? That gives us 2 days to look for a February event...and we are into March. End of February comes up real quick. If we salvage something tonight, we had 3 solid days of snow cover from last storm and will have 3 days of solid cover before that 50 on Thursday with this storm. I guess I will take it in a snowless winter This winter has been awful for many areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 14 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: It also has precip arriving a bit earlier which as stated above is so important in these events. Given that the precip comes in at night I don't think surface temps will be that warm but the mid level warming unfortunately presents the risk of 33-34 degree rain but hoping we see more sleet, less rain. 3K Nam also for tonight has snow to start The Nam is also faster with the arrival of the precip for Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Man, you guys are a real barrel of laughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: This winter has been awful for many areas The last 10 days January was up there for some of the most wasted cold of all time around here. At least the single digit cold at the beginning of Jan 2018 produced with the 950 mb benchmark blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ HRRR Standard NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 45 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: Let’s hope for an early spring! A steady warm up, longer days, cool evenings. Sounds wonderful Good luck with that. It’s not likely we will hold SE ridging like this much longer. I’m not saying by any means April and May will be miserable but when you’re in this sort of pattern now which would correlate to very mild weather in April the odds are we flip to something different in the next few weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 37 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 3K Nam also for tonight has snow to start The Nam is also faster with the arrival of the precip for Wednesday It's long range for NAM, but NAM does give Central NJ several inches of snow wednesday. Better than what other models show. We need the confluence to trend a little weaker so the snow doesn't fall apart as it comes in. GFS, GGEM and EURO have been showing it weakening to light snow due to the confluence and give us only around 1 inch. Hopefully the better looking 12z NAM will be the start of a better trend for wednesday. For tonight HRRR is colder and gets 1 to 2 inches of snow down to NYC. NAM however says you have to go north of NYC to see accumulating snow. Continues to be a tough call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 TBH as odd as the RGEM snow distribution for tonight has been the 06Z Euro is almost as odd with 2-4 NYC west into New Jersey and also Connecticut coast but basically nothing for LI. That shows you right there be careful with snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Good luck with that. It’s not likely we will hold SE ridging like this much longer. I’m not saying by any means April and May will be miserable but when you’re in this sort of pattern now which would correlate to very mild weather in April the odds are we flip to something different in the next few weeks The MJO is going into 1 soon and there is usually a lag so don't expect winter to end soon. Many people think spring will be here by mid March but it's going to be tough to get that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 18 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The MJO is going into 1 soon and there is usually a lag so don't expect winter to end soon. Many people think spring will be here by mid March but it's going to be tough to get that. I fear you are right, but it probably won't be snowy, just a cold drizzly sulk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Tonight's system looks to be decent event north of NYC metro. WWA for 2-5 inches in Mid HV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 45 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Good luck with that. It’s not likely we will hold SE ridging like this much longer. I’m not saying by any means April and May will be miserable but when you’re in this sort of pattern now which would correlate to very mild weather in April the odds are we flip to something different in the next few weeks I don't like your odds I rarely hope for you to be wrong but this would be one of those times. Bring on the warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 4 hours ago, bluewave said: Let’s hope the EPS showing a relaxation of the SE Ridge works out in about 10 days. Maybe we get a window near the beginning of March for a more significant snow event than we have seen recently. That's a real nice look with a -EPO and an east-based NAO. Will keep temps cold for sure with the PV near Hudson Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 hours ago, bluewave said: There hasn’t been much middle ground with Marches during the 2010’s. While most have been cold, the few warm ones were record warm. NYC March 2018....-2-4 2017....-3.3 2016....+6.4 2015.....-4.4 2014....-4.8 2013.....-2.4 2012....+8.4 2011....-0.2 2010...+5.7 March 2015 broke the record with a 20" snowpack in NYC. In the suburbs, there was snow on the ground until almost 3/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Gfs has a nice PNA ridge in the west by the 25th. Euro is similiar. Delayed but not denied ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 What a pattern on the gfs after the 25th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: What a pattern on the gfs after the 25th cold too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, 495weatherguy said: cold too? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Yes Hopefully this pattern will follow the lead of this winter and modify as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, 495weatherguy said: Hopefully this pattern will follow the lead of this winter and modify as we get closer. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, 495weatherguy said: Hopefully this pattern will follow the lead of this winter and modify as we get closer. you can't believe the long range models past 5 days but it seems some people get suckered in Hook Line and Sinker every time the GFS shows a great pattern in the longer range past 5 -7 days...….which it has been doing many times this winter...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Why? Anthony, I used to be a snow person just like you, no one enjoyed a storm and the cold as much as I did(although I wasn't/still am not)as knowledgeable as you. I'm a little bit older now---snow is a major pain in rear---for many reasons. And dangerous as well. I love the warmer weather that allows all to go outside and enjoy. Just my two cents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: you can't believe the long range models past 5 days but it seems some people get suckered in Hook Line and Sinker every time the GFS shows a great pattern in the longer range past 5 -7 days...….which it has been doing many times this winter...... That is true but MJO may cooperate this time around going from 8 to 1. I think early March will be cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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