snowman19 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 The NAM is nowhere near 4-6+ for the area, not even close. Don’t use the 10:1 ratio maps that count sleet as snow, they are grossly inaccurate, real bad. Here is the actual, unbiased snowmap for the new NAM run: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021700&fh=60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The NAM is nowhere near 4-6+ for the area, not even close. Don’t use the 10:1 ratio maps that count sleet as snow, they are grossly inaccurate, real bad. Here is the actual, unbiased snowmap for the new NAM run: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021700&fh=60 I'd be fine with another sleet storm, hoping it's not mostly rain but given the latest trends wouldn't be surprised if it is for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 I am glad I’m on vacation and not forecasting this one. The thermals just aren’t that warm. The air mass in place is fairly good and we have tons of room for evaporative cooling and only weak onshore flow off an ocean that is in late winter. I could see anything from about 0 to 5 inches in NYC. They will certainly go to rain even in the coldest scenario but by the time they do it could very well dry slot and be over. I would probably go similar to Upton and say up to 2 inches of I had to make a forecast. This is really a difficult call for Upton and maybe the hardest one they’ve had all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The NAM is nowhere near 4-6+ for the area, not even close. Don’t use the 10:1 ratio maps that count sleet as snow, they are grossly inaccurate, real bad. Here is the actual, unbiased snowmap for the new NAM run: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021700&fh=60 You probably won’t have significant sleet in this event. There’s likely going to be a narrow corridor that has SNPL occasionally but if you look back at the top 20 CIPS analogs of similar storms most of them had little to no sleet. Your mid level WAA typically isn’t strong enough to have a long duration period or large area of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: I am glad I’m on vacation and not forecasting this one. The thermals just aren’t that warm. The air mass in place is fairly good and we have tons of room for evaporative cooling and only weak onshore flow off an ocean that is in late winter. I could see anything from about 0 to 5 inches in NYC. They will certainly go to rain even in the coldest scenario but by the time they do it could very well dry slot and be over. I would probably go similar to Upton and say up to 2 inches of I had to make a forecast. This is really a difficult call for Upton and maybe the hardest one they’ve had all winter Yea there could also be varying amounts even across the city, however the models are holding onto the trend all winter of more mid level warming as the storm approaches which is never good news for the coast because the boundary usually torches if the upper levels do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The NAM is nowhere near 4-6+ for the area, not even close. Don’t use the 10:1 ratio maps that count sleet as snow, they are grossly inaccurate, real bad. Here is the actual, unbiased snowmap for the new NAM run: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021700&fh=60 I said it showed 4-6 for mid hudson valley where all snow is expected and I didn't say it was correct. 2-4 is a more reasonable call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 What is Wednesday looking like at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: What is Wednesday looking like at this point? Most of the 12z model runs were disappointing, showing only around 1 inch of snow wednesday. The 0z runs are just starting to come out, so we'll see shortly if they beef up wednesday's storm and make it a little colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: What is Wednesday looking like at this point? The NAM looked much better as far as ejecting the shortwave more east and nort towards us thru 84 but it’s the NAM at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 The RGEM snow gradient continues to be very unorthodox tomorrow night. Your darkest blue is 2 inches. Dark green is 3 and bright green is 4-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 12 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: What is Wednesday looking like at this point? Very brief snow to rain The high is in the wrong spot and the precip is delayed. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 The models had the precip coming in Wednesday morning. Now they have it coming in Wednesday afternoon which allows the high to shift east as the low comes up. Can it change ? Sure but it's not looking good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The models had the precip coming in Wednesday morning. Now they have it coming in Wednesday afternoon which allows the high to shift east as the low comes up. Can it change ? Sure but it's not looking good right now. Won’t have any idea on this til 48 hours out. It’s entirely about the amplitude of the shortwave and the timing. If it’s early enough we could get 6 inches before the changeover. Too late barely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The models had the precip coming in Wednesday morning. Now they have it coming in Wednesday afternoon which allows the high to shift east as the low comes up. Can it change ? Sure but it's not looking good right now. 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The models had the precip coming in Wednesday morning. Now they have it coming in Wednesday afternoon which allows the high to shift east as the low comes up. Can it change ? Sure but it's not looking good right now. It looks as if the snow has trouble coming in due to dry air. Looks like a good snow shield approaching but then it weakens to light snow as it bumps up against the high pressure and dry air. 0z GFS and GGEM continue to give our area around 1 inch of snow wednesday afternoon before it mixes at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: It looks as if the snow has trouble coming in due to dry air. Looks like a good snow shield approaching but then it weakens to light snow as it bumps up against the high pressure and dry air. 0z GFS and GGEM continue to give our area around 1 inch of snow wednesday afternoon before it mixes at night. Absolutely The confluence shunts the onset precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Absolutely The confluence shunts the onset precip shield. Subject to change between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: It looks as if the snow has trouble coming in due to dry air. Looks like a good snow shield approaching but then it weakens to light snow as it bumps up against the high pressure and dry air. 0z GFS and GGEM continue to give our area around 1 inch of snow wednesday afternoon before it mixes at night. These types of events usually have a corridor further south and west that does better than areas further north and east depending upon where the best lift axis orients in relation to the “weak spot” in the departing high. We saw an event like this in December 2013 where some parts of NE MD and SE PA saw 6-10 inches while we saw 4-5 before switching over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 38degs., or about 3degs. AN. Month to date is +3.6[37.7]. Should be +3.4[37.8] by the 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 7 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: I am glad I’m on vacation and not forecasting this one. The thermals just aren’t that warm. The air mass in place is fairly good and we have tons of room for evaporative cooling and only weak onshore flow off an ocean that is in late winter. I could see anything from about 0 to 5 inches in NYC. They will certainly go to rain even in the coldest scenario but by the time they do it could very well dry slot and be over. I would probably go similar to Upton and say up to 2 inches of I had to make a forecast. This is really a difficult call for Upton and maybe the hardest one they’ve had all winter Disagree, very straight forward brief snow to rain for NYC. Inch of snow with a bit of rain at the end is an easy call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Let’s hope the EPS showing a relaxation of the SE Ridge works out in about 10 days. Maybe we get a window near the beginning of March for a more significant snow event than we have seen recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 45 minutes ago, bluewave said: Let’s hope the EPS showing a relaxation of the SE Ridge works out in about 10 days. Maybe we get a window near the beginning of March for a more significant snow event than we have seen recently. Let’s hope it’s wrong so we can get on with an early spring and leave this winter behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Wednesday looks to kick off the beginning of a warm pattern that will last for a while. That should stick a fork in February. At least Tonight looks promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 The SOI finally got the memo that this is an El Niño year. 17 Feb 2019 1009.02 1010.50 -29.88 -4.72 1.12 16 Feb 2019 1010.66 1011.10 -24.88 -3.35 1.37 15 Feb 2019 1012.06 1010.15 -13.59 -2.47 1.44 14 Feb 2019 1010.95 1010.30 -19.64 -2.26 1.32 13 Feb 2019 1010.29 1010.80 -25.22 -1.77 1.38 12 Feb 2019 1010.38 1010.50 -23.34 -1.07 1.64 11 Feb 2019 1011.48 1010.70 -19.02 -0.59 1.89 10 Feb 2019 1012.02 1009.00 -8.26 -0.15 2.13 9 Feb 2019 1011.34 1007.10 -2.40 0.20 2.22 8 Feb 2019 1010.44 1007.85 -10.33 0.04 2.37 7 Feb 2019 1010.46 1007.30 -7.59 0.30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Wednesday looks to kick off the beginning of a warm pattern that will last for a while. That should stick a fork in February. At least Tonight looks promising. The remainder of February is a lost cause and IMO March is above normal for temps, below normal for snow. I see no reason to deviate from my thoughts and I already went over the reasons for my thinking. Nothing has changed IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Disagree, very straight forward brief snow to rain for NYC. Inch of snow with a bit of rain at the end is an easy call. I agree but he does have a point if the models are wrong with the placement. 24 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Let’s hope it’s wrong so we can get on with an early spring and leave this winter behind. It's still winter 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Let’s hope the EPS showing a relaxation of the SE Ridge works out in about 10 days. Maybe we get a window near the beginning of March for a more significant snow event than we have seen recently. The MIO is now in 8 and going into 1. There is a lag so it will not surprise me if we get snow in the 1st week of March 17 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Wednesday looks to kick off the beginning of a warm pattern that will last for a while. That should stick a fork in February. At least Tonight looks promising. Warm pattern ? Based off what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 6z eps has a faster arrival with the precip for midweek. We need a faster arrival in order to get snow before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 6z eps has a faster arrival with the precip for midweek. We need a faster arrival in order to get snow before the changeover. That seems to always be the case as almost every event this winter is a snow to rain event so the faster and stronger precip comes in the better. Unfortunately it just completely dries out after the delmarva gets a bit of a thump which is pretty the way the whole winter has gone for the metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: That seems to always be the case as almost every event this winter is a snow to rain event so the faster and stronger precip comes in the better. Unfortunately it just completely dries out after the delmarva gets a bit of a thump which is pretty the way the whole winter has gone for the metro area Exactly We need the precip to hold together. 0z Euro gives them several inches of snow / sleet and barely anything up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 NAM is actually a pretty good improvement for tonight for the Metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 45 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I agree but he does have a point if the models are wrong with the placement. It's still winter The MIO is now in 8 and going into 1. There is a lag so it will not surprise me if we get snow in the 1st week of March Warm pattern ? Based off what? It's still winter but that doesn't mean we can't hope for spring like weather to arrive early; used to happen a lot back in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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