New York Blizzard Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 This in my opinion is all snow down to Staten Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New York Blizzard Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: Take a look at the soundings. the gfs thermals are horrible you should know this! the gfs went south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New York Blizzard Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: I was talking about the NAM. Yes we already established that the nam was warm and too north of every other model so far. i would really watch the euro today and I showed an image of the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New York Blizzard Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: That is news to me. It was the gfs image I was talking about. lets see what the euro shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 17 minutes ago, New York Blizzard said: This in my opinion is all snow down to Staten Island It might be. Check out the cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New York Blizzard Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: It might be. Check out the cmc. Looks just as good if not better than the rgem! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 We can't get lucky at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 24 minutes ago, New York Blizzard said: Looks just as good if not better than the rgem! don't you ask yourself - why are the greatest accumulations in the entire region on that snow map on the eastern half of LI ? 1. Intensification once the LP hits the water ? 2. Inaccurate ? 3. Cold enough air hangs on longer out there ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New York Blizzard Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: don't you ask yourself - why are the greatest accumulations in the entire region on that snow map on the eastern half of LI ? 1. Intensification once the LP hits the water ? 2. Inaccurate ? 3. Cold enough air hangs on longer out there ? Low intensifying off the coast and cold ocean water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Hopefully the low and shortwave can edge a little to the south and keep the warm air at bay. It's looking right now like it'll be a little too far north for most of us and focus the most snow on I-90. Maybe in NYC/LI there's an inch or two on the front and back end. The GGEM is better but hopefully some other models can show it. The SE ridge is flexing its muscle a little too much here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 56 minutes ago, New York Blizzard said: the gfs thermals are horrible you should know this! the gfs went south GFS still has a primary low going into central PA and a coastal redevelopment too late. It would be fine for Boston but lousy for us. The redevelopment has to happen sooner or the primary be weaker/track south. It warms us up too much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Feeling semi optimistic we can stay mostly snow on the south shore of CT, but it will be close. While there is a low cutting into PA it is very weak, and a transfer is happening, so it won’t have too much of a warm push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Barely any snow with the midweek storm on the Euro in the area. The precip is delayed until the late afternoon compared to early morning it showed yesterday at 12z. Another storm that went down the drain. The PNA is really killing us. Don't expect any measurable snow in NYC until the Pac relaxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 when was the last time a place like montauk point got more snow than say central LI? it never happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Barely any snow with the midweek storm on the Euro in the area. The precip is delayed until the late afternoon compared to early morning it showed yesterday at 12z. Another storm that went down the drain. The PNA is really killing us. Don't expect any measurable snow in NYC until the Pac relaxes. next winter. Edited it for you. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Barely any snow with the midweek storm on the Euro in the area. The precip is delayed until the late afternoon compared to early morning it showed yesterday at 12z. Another storm that went down the drain. The PNA is really killing us. Don't expect any measurable snow in NYC until the Pac relaxes. This was the most hostile Pacific for snowfall here in years. That big ridge north of Hawaii was something out of the most unfavorable La Nina’s. It’s a shame since we actually had pretty decent Greenland blocking in the means. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 16 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Barely any snow with the midweek storm on the Euro in the area. The precip is delayed until the late afternoon compared to early morning it showed yesterday at 12z. Another storm that went down the drain. The PNA is really killing us. Don't expect any measurable snow in NYC until the Pac relaxes. EURO SHOWS 2 TO 4 for NYC Monday. I think all models except NAM have accumulation. Agreed mid week storm looks like trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: EURO SHOWS 2 TO 4 for NYC Monday. I think all models except NAM have accumulation. Agreed mid week storm looks like trash. Euro is really close to no snow here for Monday. A slight shift north and that's it for the snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: This was the most hostile Pacific for snowfall here in years. That big ridge north of Hawaii was something out of the most unfavorable La Nina’s. It’s a shame since we actually had pretty decent Greenland blocking in the means. There was no real negative nao this winter despite those higher hights over Greenland 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: That’s a really funky gradient as far as common storm tendencies go in this area. Odds favor it sets up 20-30 miles further north or south than that. Doesn’t mean it can’t happen just that it’s probably shifting one way or the other more often than not ill sign for that right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 37 minutes ago, justinj said: when was the last time a place like montauk point got more snow than say central LI? it never happens whenever a storm takes a further east track. not that uncommon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 25 minutes ago, qg_omega said: There was no real negative nao this winter despite those higher hights over Greenland The last time we had a real -NAO during the winter was around the January 2016 blizzard. The KB block building back across Greenland saved that winter. We also got lucky with the -NAO In March 2018. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Euro is really close to no snow here for Monday. A slight shift north and that's it for the snow. It’s becoming pretty clear to me that the Mon event is for I-90 or maybe a little to the south into CT and RI, lower Hudson Valley. It’s not a strong warm push but lows in central PA rarely if ever deliver in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Barely any snow with the midweek storm on the Euro in the area. The precip is delayed until the late afternoon compared to early morning it showed yesterday at 12z. Another storm that went down the drain. The PNA is really killing us. Don't expect any measurable snow in NYC until the Pac relaxes. I tried telling you yesterday. Horrible setup yet again. I wasn’t saying it to troll. When we have a good setup I’ll say it. I don’t like tomorrow night either for the reasons you said about the Euro. I think it shifts north IMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New York Blizzard Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Rgem looks like a solid 3-6 across the board definitely colder run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, New York Blizzard said: Rgem looks like a solid 3-6 across the board definitely colder run It's also showing some upper-air energy dropping south on the back end, which keeps light snow going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Upton going with 2 inches for the area tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Upton going with 2 inches for the area tomorrow To think some years we are talking about 20 inches ( though not usually IMBY ) and here we are hoping for 2. They were saying 1-3 early this morning on WNYC, then around 1, then it was "some snow, sleet and rain." with no amounts mentioned. People in the community at large have started to comment on the lack of snow. Today I was at a function with some folks from V and NC and was surprised they had much more snow this year. There is no doubt we are in a snow hole this year, albeit a bigger one than some years, with Boston and Philly caught up in it too. One woman said she had a storm of 10 inches in NC this year. Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 21 minutes ago, New York Blizzard said: Rgem looks like a solid 3-6 across the board definitely colder run We haven't been able to buy a 6 inch event this year. And no one but you seems to think we will this time. Why do you think so ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 3 hours ago, bluewave said: The last time we had a real -NAO during the winter was around the January 2016 blizzard. The KB block building back across Greenland saved that winter. We also got lucky with the -NAO In March 2018. Other than that it was a bum winter, and 2017 was nothing special either. Haven't had a blockbuster winter IMBY since 2014; 2015 I disregard because most of the events were so small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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