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February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread


Stormlover74
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24 minutes ago, New York Blizzard said:

Looks just as good if not better than the rgem!

D4188E2E-81C4-49D0-A334-FEA48E24220C.png

don't you ask yourself - why are the greatest accumulations in the entire region  on that snow map  on the eastern half of LI ?

1. Intensification once the LP hits the water ?

2. Inaccurate ?

3. Cold enough air hangs on longer out there ?

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2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

don't you ask yourself - why are the greatest accumulations in the entire region  on that snow map  on the eastern half of LI ?

1. Intensification once the LP hits the water ?

2. Inaccurate ?

3. Cold enough air hangs on longer out there ?

Low intensifying off the coast and cold ocean water

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Hopefully the low and shortwave can edge a little to the south and keep the warm air at bay. It's looking right now like it'll be a little too far north for most of us and focus the most snow on I-90. Maybe in NYC/LI there's an inch or two on the front and back end. The GGEM is better but hopefully some other models can show it. The SE ridge is flexing its muscle a little too much here. 

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56 minutes ago, New York Blizzard said:

the gfs thermals are horrible you should know this!

 

the gfs went south

GFS still has a primary low going into central PA and a coastal redevelopment too late. It would be fine for Boston but lousy for us. The redevelopment has to happen sooner or the primary be weaker/track south. It warms us up too much. 

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Barely any snow with the midweek storm on the Euro in the area. The precip is delayed until the late afternoon compared to early morning it showed yesterday at 12z.

 

Another storm that went down the drain. The PNA is really killing us.

 

Don't expect any measurable snow in NYC until the Pac relaxes.

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4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Barely any snow with the midweek storm on the Euro in the area. The precip is delayed until the late afternoon compared to early morning it showed yesterday at 12z.

 

Another storm that went down the drain. The PNA is really killing us.

 

Don't expect any measurable snow in NYC until the Pac relaxes. next winter.

Edited it for you.

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Barely any snow with the midweek storm on the Euro in the area. The precip is delayed until the late afternoon compared to early morning it showed yesterday at 12z.

 

Another storm that went down the drain. The PNA is really killing us.

 

Don't expect any measurable snow in NYC until the Pac relaxes.

This was the most hostile Pacific for snowfall here in years. That big ridge north of Hawaii was something out of the most unfavorable La Nina’s. It’s a shame since we actually had pretty decent Greenland blocking in the means.

DC2F28E4-577B-468C-BF9A-0A760A213BFF.gif.3a405558359f7bb859269d34342085f1.gif

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16 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Barely any snow with the midweek storm on the Euro in the area. The precip is delayed until the late afternoon compared to early morning it showed yesterday at 12z.

 

Another storm that went down the drain. The PNA is really killing us.

 

Don't expect any measurable snow in NYC until the Pac relaxes.

EURO SHOWS 2 TO 4 for NYC Monday. I think all models except NAM have accumulation.

Agreed mid week storm looks like trash.

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This was the most hostile Pacific for snowfall here in years. That big ridge north of Hawaii was something out of the most unfavorable La Nina’s. It’s a shame since we actually had pretty decent Greenland blocking in the means.

DC2F28E4-577B-468C-BF9A-0A760A213BFF.gif.3a405558359f7bb859269d34342085f1.gif

There was no real negative nao this winter despite those higher hights over Greenland

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3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That’s a really funky gradient as far as common storm tendencies go in this area.  Odds favor it sets up 20-30 miles further north or south than that.  Doesn’t mean it can’t happen just that it’s probably shifting one way or the other more often than not 

ill sign for that right now

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25 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

There was no real negative nao this winter despite those higher hights over Greenland

The last time we had a real -NAO during the winter was around the January 2016 blizzard. The KB block building back across Greenland saved that winter. We also got lucky with the -NAO In March 2018.

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Euro is really close to no snow here for Monday. A slight shift north and that's it for the snow.

It’s becoming pretty clear to me that the Mon event is for I-90 or maybe a little to the south into CT and RI, lower Hudson Valley. It’s not a strong warm push but lows in central PA rarely if ever deliver in NYC. 

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Barely any snow with the midweek storm on the Euro in the area. The precip is delayed until the late afternoon compared to early morning it showed yesterday at 12z.

 

Another storm that went down the drain. The PNA is really killing us.

 

Don't expect any measurable snow in NYC until the Pac relaxes.

I tried telling you yesterday. Horrible setup yet again. I wasn’t saying it to troll. When we have a good setup I’ll say it. I don’t like tomorrow night either for the reasons you said about the Euro. I think it shifts north IMO

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2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Upton going with 2 inches for the area tomorrow

To think some years we are talking about 20 inches ( though not usually IMBY ) and here we are hoping for 2. They were saying 1-3 early this morning on WNYC, then around 1, then it was "some snow, sleet and rain." with no amounts mentioned. People in the community at large have started to comment on the lack of snow. Today I was at a function with some folks from V and NC and was surprised they had much more snow this year. There is no doubt we are in a snow hole this year, albeit a bigger one than some years, with Boston and Philly caught up in it too. One woman said she had a storm of 10 inches in NC this year. Sheesh.

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The last time we had a real -NAO during the winter was around the January 2016 blizzard. The KB block building back across Greenland saved that winter. We also got lucky with the -NAO In March 2018.

Other than that it was a bum winter, and 2017 was nothing special either. Haven't had a blockbuster winter IMBY since 2014; 2015 I disregard because most of the events were so small.

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