NycStormChaser Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Upton has 1-2 inches for the area Sunday night into Monday Of rain? Lol jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Slop to all rain setup once again, only this time the antecedent air mass isn’t as cold. It is not favorable for this storm either You're without a doubt the anti-Snow88, the truth is somewhere in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: You're without a doubt the anti-Snow88, the truth is somewhere in the middle. Snow88 almost never becomes belligerent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Current temp is 58, high for the day was 62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 February 2019 is on track to be warmer than normal in the New York City area. Through the first 15 days, February 2019 has a mean temperature of 37.5° in New York City. Since 1869, 92% of cases where February had a mean temperature of 37.0° or above through February 15 wound up warmer than normal. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest computer guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will finish warmer than normal and an implied 60% probability that the City will finish 1° or more warmer than normal. Basin-wide neutral-warm ENSO conditions persist. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.30°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.40°C for the week centered around February 6. For the past five weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Such ENSO conditions will likely persist through February with some possible fluctuations to levels consistent with weak El Niño events. Under such a scenario, the probability of a significant snowfall (6" or more) will be well below climatology for the northern Mid-Atlantic region. The SOI was -13.59 today. That's the fifth consecutive day during which the SOI was -10.00 or below. The last time the SOI was at or below -10.00 for five consecutive days was September 21-25, 2018. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.894. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.194. Should the AO average +1.160 or above for the remainder of February, it would finish with a meteorological winter average just above 0.000. Based on historic experience (1950-2018) when the AO reached +3.000 or above during the February 1-15 period, the AO will likely remain predominantly through most of the second half of February. The AO could head toward neutral or negative levels during the last week of the month. Australia's Bureau of Meteorology is again able to report MJO data. On February 14, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.420 (RMM). The amplitude had fallen from the February 13-adjusted figure of 1.728. The MJO could spend an extended duration in Phase 8, but a brief push back into Phase 7 based on historical data cannot be ruled out. As the MJO remains in or near Phase 8, the AO should begin to decline. However, on account of the abnormally strong polar vortex responsible for the current high AO+ readings, that process could be a slow one. The SOI remains at very negative levels. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. As a result, precipitation will likely be above to much above normal in both the Southwestern United States (including California) and Southeastern United States. There could be several opportunities for snowfall in the East in coming days. However, the probability of significant snowfall events (6" or more) is below climatology (but not zero) for the Middle Atlantic region. Central/Upstate New York across central and northern New England have a greater probability of seeing significant snow events. Finally, the 12z ECWMF is showing the potential for a 6" or greater snowfall in a region that includes Atlantic City, Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Washington during the February 20-21 period with lesser amounts north of that region. However, consistency in the guidance will be needed before one can have much confidence in a significant snowfall given the current neutral-warm ENSO conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 11 hours ago, bluewave said: ISP picked up 15.8 with the 950 mb benchmark blizzard. They were also in a prime location for the heaviest late season snows. ISP 17-18 Dec....6.0 Jan.....22.0 Feb.....1.4 Mar.....31.9 Apr.......4.6 Which of the March storms did they have the most in? The 3/21 event? 31.9" is such an impressive total for that location in March, more than a full season's worth of snow in a month that borders on spring. I had 6.0" in the 4/2 storm. That was a really nice event here. We just missed the following weekend on 4/9; airmass was still cold enough for snow yet storm threat faded. It doesn't look like we're anywhere near done this winter with the Sunday night 1-2" event then the bigger storm Wednesday afternoon. We're due for a little luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 36degs., or about 1deg. AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 From forecasts I've seen this morning, looks like 1-3" Sunday night into Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: From forecasts I've seen this morning, looks like 1-3" Sunday night into Monday morning. They have it turning to rain now in Rockland (Upton) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: They have it turning to rain now in Rockland (Upton) Typical SWFE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 This is our first El Niño February with such a strong Southeast Ridge. Almost looks like a lingering influence from the La Niña last February. It’s odd events like this during the 2010’s that make seasonal forecasting such a challenge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 24 minutes ago, snowman19 said: They have it turning to rain now in Rockland (Upton) No mention of rain for me from Mt. Holly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 My p&c doesn't change to plain rain but does have 6 hours of freezing rain after 1-3" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 The always overamped RGEM at 40-54 not being too far north with the snow makes me feel the metro has a shot at this still as far as getting 2-3 inches. Even the Euro which came way north still shows around 2 in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 27 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The always overamped RGEM at 40-54 not being too far north with the snow makes me feel the metro has a shot at this still as far as getting 2-3 inches. Even the Euro which came way north still shows around 2 in NYC What about frozen or wet on the tail end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 13 minutes ago, gravitylover said: What about frozen or wet on the tail end? Maybe N&W. The NAM is way north. Coast wouldn’t see anything if that verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 43 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The always overamped RGEM at 40-54 not being too far north with the snow makes me feel the metro has a shot at this still as far as getting 2-3 inches. Even the Euro which came way north still shows around 2 in NYC For when? Tomorrow night? No shot. It's north and mostly rain / white rain for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: For when? Tomorrow night? No shot. It's north and mostly rain / white rain for NYC. It’s game over if the NAM is right. The temps look easily cold enough if we get a track slightly further south. I don’t think we get much above 36-38 for highs tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, qg_omega said: For when? Tomorrow night? No shot. It's north and mostly rain / white rain for NYC. It's a typical SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: It’s game over if the NAM is right. The temps look easily cold enough if we get a track slightly further south. I don’t think we get much above 36-38 for highs tomorrow According to the 12Z NAM it might be game over for snow, but not for sleet/ZR. It's certainly warmer/wetter for the NYC Metro than 6Z or other models, but it still has 0.1" LE as sleet for EWR as per the precip type comparison below for EWR for the NCEP models, and 6Z had quite a bit of ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 The RGEM literally splits the Metro. No accumulation maps yet but wouldn’t doubt its 4 inches Bronx/LGA and all rain JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The RGEM literally splits the Metro. No accumulation maps yet but wouldn’t doubt its 4 inches Bronx/LGA and all rain JFK. What does it say for Nassau and Suffolk on LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The RGEM literally splits the Metro. No accumulation maps yet but wouldn’t doubt its 4 inches Bronx/LGA and all rain JFK. 1-3 for NYC and more in LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New York Blizzard Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like a pretty weak system without that much moisture. http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NY&stn=KLGA&model=nam&time=current&field=prec I wouldn’t worry about nam it’s a good model but it hasn’t been that good this year. I’d look at euro today for a better understanding. Most of the precip falls at night so we can get a good sized 1-3 inches nyc wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: 1-3 for NYC and more in LI The gradient is purely latitude based so yeah places like Greenport or Orient could do really well on this potentially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New York Blizzard Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: The NAM has been doing fine this year. The Euro has had a bit of a cold bias lately with too much snow. Nam is an okay model. Rgem is kinda bad this year but it is showing a good amount of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 1 minute ago, New York Blizzard said: Nam is an okay model. Rgem is kinda bad this year but it is showing a good amount of snow That’s a really funky gradient as far as common storm tendencies go in this area. Odds favor it sets up 20-30 miles further north or south than that. Doesn’t mean it can’t happen just that it’s probably shifting one way or the other more often than not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New York Blizzard Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: The models showing the lower amounts of snow have done best this year. This isn’t like the last few years when the highest snowfall model was usually correct. Agreed but doesn’t mean it’s right. I’m thinking 1-3 inches of pure wet snow Monday morning. Nam is wrong in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The models showing the lower amounts of snow have done best this year. This isn’t like the last few years when the highest snowfall model was usually correct. This event isn’t a changeover event though. Someone is gonna get a good 5-6 inches with this. It may be Hartford or Boston or Danbury vs NYC but I do think this is gonna be the first solid snow event for many in CT/NY/MA/RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New York Blizzard Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This event isn’t a changeover event though. Someone is gonna get a good 5-6 inches with this. It may be Hartford or Boston or Danbury vs NYC but I do think this is gonna be the first solid snow event for many in CT/NY/MA/RI And these models don’t really ever factor in dynamic and evaporative cooling so I think even Staten Island would be snow in this case. The rgem shows the Bronx and north getting a good amount of snow but I think I would bring that rain snow line down another 20 miles south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.