February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

[Dan76]

7 hours ago, Snow88 said:

The streets were terrible that night

""Like an old man trying to send back soup in a deli''

[bluewave]

It looks like the atmosphere temporarily lost the recipie for making cold winters here after the 15-16 super El Niño.This is the 4th winter in a row with above average temperatures.The 2010’s will work out to 6 above average winters to 4 below.

NYC 35.1 current average

2018-2019	36.4	14
2017-2018	36.2	0
2016-2017	39.3	0
2015-2016	41.0	0
2014-2015	31.4	0
2013-2014	32.9	0
2012-2013	36.8	0
2011-2012	40.5	0
2010-2011	32.8	0
2009-2010	33.8	0

[MJO812]

56 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Where? In the Northern Bronx?

I showed a pic 7 hours after the storm ended in queens.

You see snow there? Or a puddle from melting?

 

The storm was not a nothing burger… It made travel treacherous for most of the day.

 

The storm also had a bad set up and was not a snowstorm for New York as the poster you derided before and after the storm stated. 1 inch was recorded.

 

I am not getting into the posters past, I’m just saying he earns some credibility with this last storm. That’s why most of us are on here, not to fight with other posters, But to have a credible discussion about weather happening or possibly happening.

I Don’t want to see anybody that has good insight get derided.

I live in Brooklyn. There are still small piles on the ground.

[MJO812]

6z Euro shows a little snow for Monday morning for the area.

[snowheavyattimes]

56 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

""Like an old man trying to send back soup in a deli''

Seinfeld episode. George is a marine biologist.

[kat5hurricane]

10 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

No offense man, now you are trolling.

Whatever his past, he was fundamentally correct when he said it was a bad setup that wouldnt lead to much for NYC or Long Island.

1 hour of snow and sleet that added up to an inch before rain washed it away.

I drove to JFK the next day at noon...a spec of snow or a puddle from melting were impossible to find. See below photo.

Meanwhile, several posters deriding him on this site held tight with 3-6/2-4/1-3 wish casts.

He was correct...or closer to correct.

Ill step off my soapbox now...sometimes what is right needs to be called out.

Frankly, he earned a stripe with the last storm in my book

 

 

This is completely wrong. It was 1 hour of snow and about 5-6 hours of sleet. The next day there was full coverage of at least an inch of compacted snow and sleet here on the North Shore. Some of these "warm bias" posters predicted a few hours of snow and sleet quickly washed away by rain which didn't happen in the entire metro area, maybe some south shore communities right on the water. They called it a "nothing" event and it was definitely more than nothing if you ventured outside, even on Heat Island -Manhattan. It was treacherous.

They were wrong, it happens. I was wrong too, I thought the sleet would be short lived and it wasn't. See, that's not so hard. "I was wrong", see how easy that is?

Also, it's not good insight when a poster has an extreme bias warm or cold.  There are a few notable posters who always predict warmth and rain or cold and snow and it clouds their judgment when making predictions.

[JustinRP37]

Okay lets tone the the end of the world scenarios. Tuesday was NOT a major winter storm. Yes the roads were icy and covered, but this was a storm that the plows kept up with really well. The problem was the timing. If this was overnight, and finished by 5AM, then at most you would have only seen delays in the morning. The problem was it start right at the tail end of the morning rush and continued throughout the day. Thus, closures were definitely the right call. But let's not make a mountain out of a mole hill here, it was 1 inch of snow and sleet and it was called correctly by many who said the upper limits would definitely not be reached. What made it dangerous was the icy conditions. Think back to 2013-14 and 2014-15 where Central Park recorded 57.4 and 50.3 inches of snow. Do you really think we would remember a 1 inch snowfall? No, we tend to remember the big ones. This storm will simply not be remembered.

[tek1972]

This is completely wrong. It was 1 hour of snow and about 5-6 hours of sleet. The next day there was full coverage of at least an inch of compacted snow and sleet here on the North Shore. Some of these "warm bias" posters predicted a few hours of snow and sleet quickly washed away by rain which didn't happen in the entire metro area, maybe some south shore communities right on the water. They called it a "nothing" event and it was definitely more than nothing if you ventured outside, even on Heat Island -Manhattan. It was treacherous.
They were wrong, it happens. I was wrong too, I thought the sleet would be short lived and it wasn't. See, that's not so hard. "I was wrong", see how easy that is?
Also, it's not good insight when a poster has an extreme bias warm or cold.  There are a few notable posters who always predict warmth and rain or cold and snow and it clouds their judgment when making predictions.

I was wrong. Definitely did not think it would sleet for 6 hours. Then again, I don't think it was a warm bias. It just rarely sleets on long island for that long.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[kat5hurricane]

12 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Okay lets tone the the end of the world scenarios. Tuesday was NOT a major winter storm. Yes the roads were icy and covered, but this was a storm that the plows kept up with really well. The problem was the timing. If this was overnight, and finished by 5AM, then at most you would have only seen delays in the morning. The problem was it start right at the tail end of the morning rush and continued throughout the day. Thus, closures were definitely the right call. But let's not make a mountain out of a mole hill here, it was 1 inch of snow and sleet and it was called correctly by many who said the upper limits would definitely not be reached. What made it dangerous was the icy conditions. Think back to 2013-14 and 2014-15 where Central Park recorded 57.4 and 50.3 inches of snow. Do you really think we would remember a 1 inch snowfall? No, we tend to remember the big ones. This storm will simply not be remembered.

Who said it was end of the world or that it was memorable?  The prediction of a few hours of snow and sleet getting quickly washed away by rain and calling it "nothing" was wrong, flat out. Those who predicted 3 or more inches of snow were wrong too.

It wasn't a big storm but there was a long period of sleet that made conditions hazardous and it stuck around for a few days in most of the metro away from the immediate south shore.

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Who said it was end of the world or that it was memorable?  The prediction of a few hours of snow and sleet getting quickly washed away by rain and calling it "nothing" was wrong, flat out. Those who predicted 3 or more inches of snow were wrong too.

It wasn't a big storm but there was a long period of sleet that made conditions hazardous and it stuck around for a few days in most of the metro away from the immediate south shore.

Overall, it was a great forecast with the models showing this scenario a week out. We were discussing the strong and warm SW flow aloft vs the colder surface high for a while. Snow to sleet and then rain was never in doubt.

[kat5hurricane]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Overall, it was a great forecast with the models showing this scenario a week out. We were discussing the strong and warm SW flow aloft vs the colder surface high for a while. Snow to sleet and then rain was never in doubt.

The forecast was well modelled. I was just referencing a few posters here.

[gravitylover]

It may have been a low impact storm in some places but here it made moving around really challenging and dangerous. 3" of snow topped by 1" of sleet capped by 5 or so hours of freezing mist/rain. Everything is still encased and the whole place is a block of ice. I'm pretty sure most of the crust will degrade with the warmth today but whatever is left will be locked up again tonight and won't go anywhere for the next week or so. Where the storm was high impact it left it's mark and will be a problem for some time to come.

[EastonSN+]

3 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days averaging 38degs ., or about 3degs. AN.

EURO Weeklies have SE RIDGE winning it all, though we are on the borderline for say 2/26-3/10.   Look for a surprise there only.

Bet on SE RIDGE to Win Place and Show.    What a horse!

Sat. event way south on every model.

If I have learned anything this winter, its the weeklies, both EURO and CFS, are complete garbage. Will never look at them again. 

[bluewave]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

If I have learned anything this winter, its the weeklies, both EURO and CFS, are complete garbage. Will never look at them again. 

A good rule of thumb is not to look much past the day 6-10 ensemble means range. This way you don’t develop unrealistic long range expectations. 

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

If I have learned anything this winter, its the weeklies, both EURO and CFS, are complete garbage. Will never look at them again. 

The Weeklies kept showing a good pattern to develop from December. What a failure.

[MJO812]

It looks like we might see a little snow on Monday

Nothing substantial

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

Okay lets tone the the end of the world scenarios. Tuesday was NOT a major winter storm. Yes the roads were icy and covered, but this was a storm that the plows kept up with really well. The problem was the timing. If this was overnight, and finished by 5AM, then at most you would have only seen delays in the morning. The problem was it start right at the tail end of the morning rush and continued throughout the day. Thus, closures were definitely the right call. But let's not make a mountain out of a mole hill here, it was 1 inch of snow and sleet and it was called correctly by many who said the upper limits would definitely not be reached. What made it dangerous was the icy conditions. Think back to 2013-14 and 2014-15 where Central Park recorded 57.4 and 50.3 inches of snow. Do you really think we would remember a 1 inch snowfall? No, we tend to remember the big ones. This storm will simply not be remembered.

The NJ State of Emergency was not needed IMO - also that State of Emergency is what prompted many school districts to close schools the evening before instead of waiting till morning to see if the forecast changed . The road crews in my area did a terrible job as usual - they didn't lay down that ice melt road prep the day before - BUT for some mysterious reason the truck is running around and spraying it on the roads this morning  !

[NEG NAO]

Upton going for mainly frozen precip next week in NYC

TUESDAY NIGHT  
MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.    
WEDNESDAY  
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.  
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.    
WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
SNOW LIKELY. RAIN LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF  
FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF  
PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.    
THURSDAY  
MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN, SNOW AND FREEZING  
RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.   

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Overall, it was a great forecast with the models showing this scenario a week out. We were discussing the strong and warm SW flow aloft vs the colder surface high for a while. Snow to sleet and then rain was never in doubt.

There wasn't a lot of rain at all for the metro area. The CAD held on longer than modeled which has been the case with these events.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, kat5hurricane said:

This is completely wrong. It was 1 hour of snow and about 5-6 hours of sleet. The next day there was full coverage of at least an inch of compacted snow and sleet here on the North Shore. Some of these "warm bias" posters predicted a few hours of snow and sleet quickly washed away by rain which didn't happen in the entire metro area, maybe some south shore communities right on the water. They called it a "nothing" event and it was definitely more than nothing if you ventured outside, even on Heat Island -Manhattan. It was treacherous.

They were wrong, it happens. I was wrong too, I thought the sleet would be short lived and it wasn't. See, that's not so hard. "I was wrong", see how easy that is?

Also, it's not good insight when a poster has an extreme bias warm or cold.  There are a few notable posters who always predict warmth and rain or cold and snow and it clouds their judgment when making predictions.

I still have some patches of sleet/snow on the ground.

[Dan76]

Any other year and there probably would not of even been a thread.

[David-LI]

GFS looking better for Wednesday storm. Real chance of measurable snow. It's not much but considering how bad this winter has been I'll take it.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, David-LI said:

GFS looking better for Wednesday storm. Real chance of measurable snow. It's not much but considering how bad this winter has been I'll take it.

It's all snow for the area

[SnowGoose69]

14 minutes ago, David-LI said:

GFS looking better for Wednesday storm. Real chance of measurable snow. It's not much but considering how bad this winter has been I'll take it.

That’s legit as long as the system doesn’t over amp.  The tendency these days though is for those sort of overrunners to want to bomb too much.  If it does we torch the mid levels and sleet again 

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

It looks like we might see a little snow on Monday

Nothing substantial

The Euro is the best right now.  Most other guidance has the coastal areas as rain

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro is the best right now.  Most other guidance has the coastal areas as rain

Every other model has the low getting shunted south of the area. They might be too warm.

[SnoSki14]

40 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That’s legit as long as the system doesn’t over amp.  The tendency these days though is for those sort of overrunners to want to bomb too much.  If it does we torch the mid levels and sleet again 

I've noticed the models have been gradually weakening the SE ridge. Not surprising with the MJO likely to meander in phase 8 for the next 2 weeks.

I think it's highly unlikely we see an over amped system. At the very least they may play out like SWFE, same goes for Monday.

[nzucker]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

NYC needs to find a few more inches of snow this month in order to pull ahead of 01-02 and 11-12 in the DJF snowfall department. Currently the 3rd lowest at 2.3 since December 1st.

1	1997-1998	0.5	0
2	1918-1919	1.1	0
3	2018-2019	2.3	14
4	1972-1973	2.6	0
5	1931-1932	2.7	0
6	1991-1992	3.2	0
7	2001-2002	3.5	0
8	2011-2012	4.5	0
9	1989-1990	5.0	0
10	1900-1901	5.1	2

Yes, I've also had 2.3" here in the Bronx during the entire meteorological winter. The biggest event, aside from November, was the 1 3/4" snowfall that I recorded on Tuesday that was combined with sleet and ice. Incredible to think in some winters we see this amount of snow in an hour; others it takes a whole season to accumulate a few measly inches. 

If we have a benign ending to the winter, this will be the least snowiest winter I've experienced since 01-02 when Dobbs Ferry only received 8" all winter. (I was in New Hampshire for the 11-12 winter, where we were well below average but still had over 50" with 25" coming in the October storm.) I've been incredibly lucky...had almost 50" in the Bronx last year, 58" in Southern Brooklyn in 13-14, nearly 70" in Dobbs Ferry in 09-10 and 10-11. But averages are averages for a reason, and we were due for a ratter. We're also seeing a continuation of the extremes where NYC sees fewer winters with 20-30", as was common in the 1980s, and more winters with 40"+ or <15". 

[SnowGoose69]

35 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Every other model has the low getting shunted south of the area. They might be too warm.

The UKMET looks flatter than the GFS 

[nzucker]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

I still have some patches of sleet/snow on the ground.

This was my backyard yesterday morning...still some left. So saying the storm was nothing is ridiculous.