Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Chargers10
    Newest Member
    Chargers10
    Joined

February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

Stormlover74

By Stormlover74,
in New York City Metro

Recommended Posts

bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days averaging 39degs., or 4degs. AN.

8 straight daily negative SOI contributions not helping yet.

The big -SOI drop is associated with the current fire hose STJ into SOCAL. So while the jet configuration is more El Niño, We are still contenting with the Niña-like -PNA. A very confused and chaotic looking Pacific.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Weather_West/status/1095809943226191872

Amount of vertically integrated water vapor transport (a measure of #AtmosphericRiver strength) will potentially exceed all-time February records across far southern CA (mainly south of LA) Thursday morning. This is an impressive signal, and portends major flood risk there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 2.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
495weatherguy

495weatherguy

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The big -SOI drop is associated with the current fire hose STJ into SOCAL. So while the jet configuration is more El Niño, We are still contenting with the Niña-like -PNA. A very confused and chaotic looking Pacific.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Weather_West/status/1095809943226191872

Amount of vertically integrated water vapor transport (a measure of #AtmosphericRiver strength) will potentially exceed all-time February records across far southern CA (mainly south of LA) Thursday morning. This is an impressive signal, and portends major flood risk there.

Does this mean less wintry weather for us?  Maybe even an early spring?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Does this mean less wintry weather for us?  Maybe even an early spring?

Very good question about March. We often see cooler influences here for March when El Niño’s intensify from February into March. Since there are so many competing influences this year, that relationship may not hold. This is looking like the strongest WWB and possibly SOI drop of this whole event. Very rare to happen so late in the game. Be interesting to see if the El Niño tries to continue beyond this winter.

 

80448ABC-80A3-4BE1-B7BE-4EF5F9827E75.thumb.gif.a5d55976441714c24cf98a66daf1355b.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Brasiluvsnow

Brasiluvsnow

Posted
Posted

Regarding these next 3 upcoming waves / events does anybody care to wager that the models could look night and day different today compared to yesterday never mind tomorrows runs ? Heck the model outcomes could change at noon and then back the other way at midnight--> Yes this winter has been tough but how about a lil consistency.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Regarding these next 3 upcoming waves / events does anybody care to wager that the models could look night and day different today compared to yesterday never mind tomorrows runs ? Heck the model outcomes could change at noon and then back the other way at midnight--> Yes this winter has been tough but how about a lil consistency.

So far there is no indication that any of these waves will be mostly frozen in the immediate NYC metro - the first one probably misses completely south of us and the next 2 still have a chance of cutting west of us -

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
purduewx80

purduewx80

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Amount of vertically integrated water vapor transport (a measure of #AtmosphericRiver strength) will potentially exceed all-time February records across far southern CA (mainly south of LA) Thursday morning. This is an impressive signal, and portends major flood risk there.

Separate but related is the record cold season PWAT at San Diego this morning:

NGX_PWAT.thumb.png.af4df6b64bec1d2e258a8dff2e7a5407.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Separate but related is the record cold season PWAT at San Diego this morning:

NGX_PWAT.thumb.png.af4df6b64bec1d2e258a8dff2e7a5407.png

That is an amazing record.  

CLIMATE...
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.68 INCHES FOR THE NKX SOUNDING 
THIS MORNING WAS NOT ONLY THE THE HIGHEST EVER FOR SAN DIEGO IN 
FEBRUARY, BUT THE HIGHEST EVER FOR THE NOVEMBER THROUGH MAY PERIOD.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR FEBRUARY WAS 1.34 INCHES ON THE 28TH IN 
2006. SOUNDINGS FOR NZY/SAN/NKX GO BACK TO 1948. THE 1.68 INCHES FOR 
THIS MORNING IS 379 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THE DATE.

&&
Link to comment
Share on other sites
snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Very good question about March. We often see cooler influences here for March when El Niño’s intensify from February into March. Since there are so many competing influences this year, that relationship may not hold. This is looking like the strongest WWB and possibly SOI drop of this whole event. Very rare to happen so late in the game. Be interesting to see if the El Niño tries to continue beyond this winter.

 

80448ABC-80A3-4BE1-B7BE-4EF5F9827E75.thumb.gif.a5d55976441714c24cf98a66daf1355b.gif

The things that separate this March from the past few, the +QBO has now descended into the bottom of the stratosphere and is gaining strength, and the stratospheric polar vortex is projected to get very strong, very cold and stratospheric winds are also forecasted to get very strong come March 1st. IMO this all supports a +NAM (+AO/+NAO) March

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CIK62

CIK62

Posted
Posted

It is not the winter that is going down the drain, it is the models and the entire meteorological science taking the hit.

Somehow it must be explained why the analogs did not work out, and seemed to be running independent of the OPs, or the other way around if you like.

I think we are now prone, and vulnerable  to a major non-predicted weather phenomenon---that goes beyond this winter.

Just look at the GEFS 16-day Snow Accumulation.      Never showed even a low probability of the average 3"-4.5" typical 16-day total ever happening  Everyone of 75 different daily runs should have shown this.     It ran up as high as 17" with a 60% chance on a few occasions, and still nothing happened or even threaten to happen.   The last run I recorded, indicated a 50/50 chance of 6" for the first 16 days of Feb.

What did it for me, was the fact that the models could not even muster up a fantasy snowstorm, which told me we were never close to the real thing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

It is not the winter that is going down the drain, it is the models and the entire meteorological science taking the hit.

Somehow it must be explained why the analogs did not work out, and seemed to be running independent of the OPs, or the other way around if you like.

I think we are now prone, and vulnerable  to a major non-predicted weather phenomenon---that goes beyond this winter.

Just look at the GEFS 16-day Snow Accumulation.      Never showed even a low probability of the average 3"-4.5" typical 16-day total ever happening  Everyone of 75 different daily runs should of shown this.     It ran up as high as 17" with a 60% chance on a few occasions, and still nothing happened or even threaten to happen.   

What did it for me, was the fact that the models could not even muster up a fantasy snowstorm, which told me we were never close to the real thing.

I suspect part of the reason the extended range guidance e.g., EPS weeklies, has fared poorly is that there remains significant room for improving the modeling of ocean-atmosphere dynamics.

Having said that, I do believe that the NYC-Philadelphia-Washington corridor will wind up seeing 15"-25" snowfall for the winter as a whole once the season concludes under the assumption that a degree of Atlantic blocking (AO region) redevelops. Nevertheless, expectations should be tempered. Any guidance suggesting huge snowfall in the northern Mid-Atlantic region should be treated with a healthy dose of skepticism until the scenario is in the near-term (under 120 hours out).

The reality is that basinwide neutral-warm, not El Niño conditions have prevailed for five weeks now (ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly: +0.73°C and ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly: +0.40°C). The models assumed a stronger ENSO event, thus an atmospheric response was anticipated. That response did not take place, as warm but neutral conditions prevailed through much of January into February.

Unfortunately, neutral-warm ENSO conditions are not conducive to big snowstorms in the Middle Atlantic region, especially in February. They can occur, but the frequency of such events is well below climatology. I suspect there could be one or two snowfall opportunities in the region before the month concludes, but believe the odds lean against a significant event (6" or more) in the New York City or Philadelphia areas. Upstate New York and central/northern New England have a better chance at seeing such an event.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted

Once again, the GEFS shows the pattern changing on March 1st. The EPS and GEPS show it, but delay it until further into the 1st week of March. Does anyone believe it this time? I sure don’t. There have been head fakes from the models in the long term showing a cold and snow pattern here that has never materialized since mid November. Mirages for months now. Same song and dance over and over

Link to comment
Share on other sites
EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Once again, the GEFS shows the pattern changing on March 1st. The EPS and GEPS show it, but delay it until further into the 1st week of March. Does anyone believe it this time? I sure don’t. There have been head fakes from the models in the long term showing a cold and snow pattern here that has never materialized since mid November. Mirages for months now. Same song and dance over and over

The only reason I would believe them is patterns usually have a reload, so I could see a few days of a positive PNA.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The only reason I would believe them is patterns usually have a reload, so I could see a few days of a positive PNA.

Besides the models sucking horribly in the long range this entire winter, I have reasons for believing that March is not going to be cold or snowy, wrote my reasons a couple of posts above this, just before. Until something proves to me otherwise, I’m going with below normal snowfall and above normal temps for March

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The things that separate this March from the past few, the +QBO has now descended into the bottom of the stratosphere and is gaining strength, and the stratospheric polar vortex is projected to get very strong, very cold and stratospheric winds are also forecasted to get very strong come March 1st. IMO this all supports a +NAM (+AO/+NAO) March

The only hope for a more -NAO near the beginning of March would be a successful NATL wave breaking event. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...