weatherlogix Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 hour ago, CarLover014 said: GFS looks best for Wednesday's event GEM looks best for Saturday's event GFS-FV3 looks best for Monday's event We'll see about the Euro. A combo of all three would be great. I can dream, right? it's 2018-2019, use the model that shows the LEAST snow for each event. That is the one that is most likely correct 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 some rogue snowflakes floating around near Lincoln Center at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Moderate snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Flurries in Southern Queens near jfk airport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, weathermedic said: Flurries in Southern Queens near jfk airport How much did you measure yesterday ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 5 hours ago, Snow88 said: The Pacific is really killing this winter This might be the 1st winter in a while without a KU event. LOL-forget a KU event, I'd be happy with a 3-6 inch storm, 1980's style where that was the "big" event of the winter. We can't even get that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: LOL-forget a KU event, I'd be happy with a 3-6 inch storm, 1980's style where that was the "big" event of the winter. We can't even get that.... We flipped from one extreme to the other. The benchmark track went bonkers last January and March. The historic 950 mb benchmark blizzard in January and record run of multiple snow events in March. This season the benchmark track has been non-existent. Everything has been cutter, hugger, or suppressed to our south. This is the most recent chapter in the 2010’s stuck and stagnant weather patterns story. It would be really niece to see at least one benchmark storm before we get to the end of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Not even sure what to call it - it's not a squall line, like a few weeks ago - Mesoscale Snow Event? They didn't say how much snow, but the radar looks juicy for some. Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 252 PM EST WED FEB 13 2019 NJZ007>010-012-013-015-PAZ061-062-103>106-132030- Mercer-Morris-Hunterdon-Western Monmouth-Somerset-Middlesex-Warren-Lower Bucks-Lehigh-Eastern Montgomery-Northampton-Upper Bucks-Western Montgomery- 252 PM EST WED FEB 13 2019 ...AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN MORRIS... HUNTERDON...SOUTHWESTERN WARREN...MERCER...SOMERSET...CENTRAL MONMOUTH...MIDDLESEX...NORTH CENTRAL MONTGOMERY...SOUTHEASTERN LEHIGH...BUCKS AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES... At 249 PM EST, an area of heavy snow was centered over Northern Bucks and Hunterdon counties, moving east at 45 mph. This snow will result in a period of low visibilities and hazardous travel conditions. Locations impacted include... Allentown, New Brunswick, Easton, Somerville, Somerset, Bethlehem, Old Bridge, East Brunswick, Bridgewater, South Brunswick, North Brunswick, Manalapan, Ewing, Lansdale, Forks, Middlesex, Princeton, Bound Brook, Manville and Quakertown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 hour ago, weatherlogix said: In the NYC area PDI wasn't as impactful as it was in the Mid-Atlantic April 1982 slipped my mind but a storm like that in January wouldn't have been that huge a deal...what did Central Park record 9.6"? It would have been a huge deal even in Jan as most snowfall events were 2-5 type deals. Even in the early 70s someone posted a 1010 wins report awhile ago about a storm in 74 or 75 over performing and getting to 8 inches, which was a huge storm. Even the 78 event in feb of 17 inches looks tame these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 More flurries here with another snow squall moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Had a 2 minute burst of some decent snow before, looks like another more substantial burst is incoming. Wintry couple of days at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 13, 2019 Author Share Posted February 13, 2019 Heavy squall coming through. Nothing like 2 weeks ago but still decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 It's been snowing intermittently in Clinton, NJ since 12:30. It's rather nice to see. Too bad my driveway backhome likely hasn't melted at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Snowing here in Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Snowing in lower Manhattan. Beautiful mood flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ebwx Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Decent squall in East Brunswick about an hour ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 7 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I didn't even have that- it started Friday afternoon here right before midwinter recess so all we got is early release- an hour early lol. I was in school the same years 1979 -1990. NYC public schools never closed even one time. Bliss of 1983 started about 2:30PM on Friday..school let out at normal time. By the time Monday rolled around, everything was cleaned up enough to open schools. Every KU storm we get nowadays is like payback for the 80’s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 3 hours ago, Snow88 said: How much did you measure yesterday ? 1 inch snow and just under an inch of sleet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 9 hours ago, LibertyBell said: a brief edit to the info- snow actually fell at 6200 ft not just 6600 ft and there was a foot of snow! You know it’s a bad winter when Hawaii has gotten almost double the snow we have! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 there are 3 possible events in the near future shouldn't we at least have a thread on possibly Saturday / Sunday yet ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: there are 3 possible events in the near future shouldn't we at least have a thread on possibly Saturday / Sunday yet ? Nobody wants to jinx it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: there are 3 possible events in the near future shouldn't we at least have a thread on possibly Saturday / Sunday yet ? Saturday/Sunday looks to be a miss. I don’t think a thread is warranted for it. Even if it arrives it will be less than two inches. Then again that would be a top 3 event for the year haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, JustinRP37 said: Saturday/Sunday looks to be a miss. I don’t think a thread is warranted for it. Even if it arrives it will be less than two inches. Then again that would be a top 3 event for the year haha. We need a good 100 mile shift which I’m not sure is happening. We may get it to come far enough up that 1-2 happens 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: We need a good 100 mile shift which I’m not sure is happening. We may get it to come far enough up that 1-2 happens It's only Wednesday and the gefs and 18z Euro came north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 30 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It's only Wednesday and the gefs and 18z Euro came north. While this is true the pattern this winter is for suppression with these types of systems. No one wants snow more then me, but I would be willing to bet good money this is another DC special. It wouldn’t surprise me if even they fringe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 36 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: While this is true the pattern this winter is for suppression with these types of systems. No one wants snow more then me, but I would be willing to bet good money this is another DC special. It wouldn’t surprise me if even they fringe. I think Snow88 could give you a run for your money 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 The most recent storm brought 12.9" snow to Caribou, bringing its seasonal total to 128.3". That ranks second behind the 133.4" that had accumulated through February 13 in winter 2007-08. Meanwhile Boston picked up 2.4" (more than doubling its seasonal total), New York City received 1.2", and Philadelphia picked up 0.6". The low snowfall totals in the northern Middle Atlantic region are consistent with neutral-warm ENSO conditions in February. Currently, the neutral-warm conditions continue. The ENSO Region 1+2 and 3.4 anomalies centered around February 6 were +0.30°C and +0.40°C respectively. The four-week moving average for Region 3.4 is +0.40°C. Since 1950, there were just 3 snowstorms of 4" or more in Boston during February when the ENSO 1+2 anomaly was > 0.00°C and the ENSO 3.4 anomaly ranged from 0.00°C to 0.69°C. In New York City, there was just one such storm and in Philadelphia there were two. The biggest snowstorms during such ENSO conditions were as follows: Boston: 9.7"; New York City: 4.3"; and, Philadelphia: 4.7". The SOI was -25.22 today. That's the lowest figure since November 17, 2018 when the SOI was -25.26. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.183. That is the highest value since April 25, 2018 when the AO was +3.384. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.257. Based on historic experience (1950-2018) concerning high AO values in the February 1-15 period, more than half of the remaining days in February will likely feature a positive AO. The AO's reaching +3.000 has reduced the expected number of negative AO days during the second half of February. During past historic cases, an average of around 30% of days during the second half of February wound up negative under such circumstances. Were the AO to rise to +3.500 or above, the odds of a return to negative AO values toward the end of February would fall markedly. For the fourth consecutive day, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology reported no MJO data. That outcome may be the result of technical issues in pulling OLR data from NOAA sources due to website issues. However, based on model initialization (which is subject to some degree of error), the MJO has now moved into Phase 8. The MJO could spend an extended duration in Phase 8. As it remains in Phase 8, the AO should begin to decline. The SOI has now reached severely negative levels. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. As a result, the subtropical jet could become increasingly active during the second half of February. That idea fits the development of a stormy pattern and the theme of opportunities for snowfall as the month progresses. The next such event will likely occur on Saturday with a focus on the Middle Atlantic region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 14 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Don does it look like we'll continue the pattern of the coastal huggers/runners that will result in more snow changing to rain scenarios? The SE Ridge has been strong this winter (with minor interruptions during Arctic outbreaks)- really a continuation of the strong SE Ridge from the summer. That could begin to change as PNA ridging begins to develop down the road. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 The 0Z runs weren't good for this subforum. For the Saturday event only the CMC brings 1-2" of snow to the Philly-NYC corridor (and 2-4" S of 276/195), with the Euro, FV3, and GFS all confining measurable snow to south of Balt-AC. For the Monday event, things look slightly better for N of 276/195, as the GFS has an inch or so generally N of 195/276, the FV3 has <1" N of that line, and the CMC has 1-3" N of 276/195, while the Euro has nada. I think we're almost out of time for the Saturday event to be meaningful north of Philly-Toms River (unless the CMC scores a major unexpected coup) and the Monday event looks minor, but this winter most of us would kill for minor. Next Wednesday is looking better than Sat/Mon, but things often look better 6-7 days out. Have not seen the UK. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 39degs., or 4degs. AN. 8 straight daily negative SOI contributions not helping yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now