EastonSN+ Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Ugly for sure. Just cant win this year. I was trying to think of analogs too-can't think of any... For the first time I am not posting the Teleconnections. They all went to Crap overnight. Yesterday they were showing a dive in NAO and AO and a rise in PNA and MJO high in 8. Today all the opposite with MJO going back to 7. I think I am finally giving up. Hope for a warm spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Just now, EastonSN+ said: For the first time I am not posting the Teleconnections. They all went to Crap overnight. Yesterday they were showing a dive in NAO and AO and a rise in PNA and MJO high in 8. Today all the opposite with MJO going back to 7. I think I am finally giving up. Hope for a warm spring. The NAO has been fantasy all winter. MJO has been unpredictable to say the least. If it goes back to 7 and we get that strong -PNA we're toast for another 2-3 weeks and that brings us into March...yesterday was nice-the kids finally got to sled and have a snow day. They are 10 and they don't know what a snowless winter is like (Given the last 10 years in general) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 28 minutes ago, bluewave said: The contradictions in the Pacific are as extreme as it gets right now. A more Niña-like -PNA pattern for February with only a brief relaxation before dipping negative again later on. Couple that with the El Niño-like impressive - SOI drop and WWB. Surface temps don't look that warm though and the PNA starts rising again after going negative. I think the Nino like conditions will help tone down the SE ridging too. It is a bizarre pattern though, too many cooks in the kitchen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: The NAO has been fantasy all winter. MJO has been unpredictable to say the least. If it goes back to 7 and we get that strong -PNA we're toast for another 2-3 weeks and that brings us into March...yesterday was nice-the kids finally got to sled and have a snow day. They are 10 and they don't know what a snowless winter is like (Given the last 10 years in general) Agreed yesterday's 2.5 brings this winter out of my Ratter category to terrible with 10 on the year. Amazing that 2011 2012 winter had more snow than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: For the first time I am not posting the Teleconnections. They all went to Crap overnight. Yesterday they were showing a dive in NAO and AO and a rise in PNA and MJO high in 8. Today all the opposite with MJO going back to 7. I think I am finally giving up. Hope for a warm spring. They'll shift everyday because they don't know whether to rely on Nino or Nina forcing. That's why models have been useless past 3 days. I highly doubt it's a warm Spring, EPO is still in negative territory, SSTs are cold, huge cold & snow pack in eastern Canada. Probably another strong backdoor season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 37 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I wonder if there are any good analog years to compare with this. I have to admit its fascinating. This is the first El Niño year since 1950 with a +9.3 December SOI and negative February PNA. The 2010’s keep coming up with new pattern combinations. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: This is the first El Niño year since 1950 with a +9.3 December SOI and negative February PNA. The 2010’s keep coming up with new pattern combinations. Here is the latest PNA outlook. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 20 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: For the first time I am not posting the Teleconnections. They all went to Crap overnight. Yesterday they were showing a dive in NAO and AO and a rise in PNA and MJO high in 8. Today all the opposite with MJO going back to 7. I think I am finally giving up. Hope for a warm spring. I want to agree with you and this post, but what happens if those teleconnections make another abrupt change. Where are we then. I’m wondering if it wouldn’t be prudent to check on these things every 3/4 days vs daily to smooth things out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 hour ago, Jason215 said: Amazing stats Liberty! Thanks for sharing. I learn something new here every day. a brief edit to the info- snow actually fell at 6200 ft not just 6600 ft and there was a foot of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: This is the first El Niño year since 1950 with a +9.3 December SOI and negative February PNA. The 2010’s keep coming up with new pattern combinations. I think recognizing previous years that were similar are more important than teleconnections and things like how strong the SE Ridge has been since last summer and the hyper rainfall totals of 2018. Based on that, I think we'll have a few more chances at mixed precip events and perhaps small all snow events that are 4 inches or less per event. I think the November event will end up being our largest for the season. I give us a 50/50 shot of ending up at 20 inches total seasonal snowfall at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: They'll shift everyday because they don't know whether to rely on Nino or Nina forcing. That's why models have been useless past 3 days. I highly doubt it's a warm Spring, EPO is still in negative territory, SSTs are cold, huge cold & snow pack in eastern Canada. Probably another strong backdoor season. Could get another early April snowstorm. I think we'll trend strongly to warm weather by May- all that cold and snow pack up north will be long gone by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 11 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: I want to agree with you and this post, but what happens if those teleconnections make another abrupt change. Where are we then. I’m wondering if it wouldn’t be prudent to check on these things every 3/4 days vs daily to smooth things out maybe the next few weeks will have a surprise, but generally looks average at best temp wise and the storm track will remain to our west. Going to need real cold as we go further into Feb/Mar for snows....average won't cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The contradictions in the Pacific are as extreme as it gets right now. A more Niña-like -PNA pattern for February with only a brief relaxation before dipping negative again later on. Couple that with the El Niño-like impressive - SOI drop and WWB. How long will this brief relaxation last, a week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 57 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I wonder if there are any good analog years to compare with this. I have to admit its fascinating. the way to look at it is to use an analog for only a specific part of the winter and forget about teleconnections and ENSO. This is a complex pattern that needs complex ideas. 2012-13 worked well for the first part of the season and I think we are now going more towards 2006-07 and maybe even 1983-84 for the second part of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 The Pacific is really killing this winter This might be the 1st winter in a while without a KU event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: The Pacific is really killing this winter This might be the 1st winter in a while without a KU event. LOL-forget a KU event, I'd be happy with a 3-6 inch storm, 1980's style where that was the "big" event of the winter. We can't even get that.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 45 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: For the first time I am not posting the Teleconnections. They all went to Crap overnight. Yesterday they were showing a dive in NAO and AO and a rise in PNA and MJO high in 8. Today all the opposite with MJO going back to 7. I think I am finally giving up. Hope for a warm spring. The MJO is 1000% not going back to 7. The GFS and most other guidance has been trying that for months and we haven’t back tracked one time. The Euro still goes through 8 and 1 and I fully expect that’ll happen. The problem is it seems it’s having no major impact on changing the pattern 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The Pacific is really killing this winter This might be the 1st winter in a while without a KU event. It's the SE Ridge too. I thought this might happen because of how anomalously strong it was during the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The Pacific is really killing this winter This might be the 1st winter in a while without a KU event. seems your optimism was short lived.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 14 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The Pacific is really killing this winter This might be the 1st winter in a while without a KU event. We are overdue for several years in a row of below normal snowfall and no KU events - 2018 -2019 may be the start ……. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Last night's slop fest brings me to 7.8" for the reason, or abouts. Double digits will be a win 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 10" here for the season, only 3.6" in DEC, JAN, FEB....yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 12z NAM shows diddly squat for Saturday. However it's in its s*** range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 23 minutes ago, nycwinter said: seems your optimism was short lived.. I think we will get more snow but not a huge snowstorm unless the PNA and NAO changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Just now, CarLover014 said: 12z NAM shows diddly squat for Saturday. However it's in its s*** range Saturday's wave is going to miss to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Saturday's wave is going to miss to the south Yeah toss the Euro on that. It’s too amped. The 2nd one has a shot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah toss the Euro on that. It’s too amped. The 2nd one has a shot Second wave per the GFS might be too amped....but we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: It's obviously the inexperienced who dont remember what the 80s were like and we live near an Ocean that will always scour out mid level cold air sooner than models forecast. I have been singing the 80's song for a while. I was in school (elementary/middle/high school) from 1979-1991, I had ONE snow day my entire life. February 14, 1983. ONE! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Goes to show how bad a winter can get. The MJO, AO and NAO all look to go favorable, then the PNA overrides all the positives. I am shocked I was able to reach 10 inches on the season so far. If the AO and NAO are favorable (and -PNA), theoretically, there would be a north atlantic block or at least some confluence in SE Canada....so its conceivable that the trough wouldn't just lift up through the lakes like what has been happening. Assuming confluence, could be a Miller B...etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: This is the first El Niño year since 1950 with a +9.3 December SOI and negative February PNA. The 2010’s keep coming up with new pattern combinations. Could it be that as a whole the weather/science community is using 100 years of data to make assumptions rather than a million years and maybe they aren't new combinations just unobserved combinations?....you can't beat god (higher being or whatever you believe in), no matter how educated you think you are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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