495weatherguy Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: That is coming. 1 hour of snow for Midtown. I said this yesterday and people did not like it. Specifically I said Long Island would be hard pressed to see even 1 much of accumulating snow before the changeover. Not very well received Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 My guess now is the system misses south in 5 days but there is a good deal of room for this to come north unlike many other south misses this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Nice system on the Gfs, looks like two shortwaves that could impact us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 12, 2019 Author Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Nice system on the Gfs, looks like two shortwaves that could impact us. It now has something Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Nice system on the Gfs, looks like two shortwaves that could impact us. The system with associated vortex that crosses lakes into southern Canada day 3 needs to get out of the way. If it does this could be a decent event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Gfs has a few events to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 soi-negative mjo-8-1 (although maybe a retreat to 7 for a time) ao- going strongly negative nao- slightly negative pna- positive with this in our future, we should have some decent shots over the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 I'm pretty sure everyone can count on the week of February 25th to deliver some high impact storms. I say this with almost 100% certainty since I'll be out of town during that week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Light snow on Saturday and Sunday on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Light snow on Saturday and Sunday on the Euro. I'll take anything. How about Monday/Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, CarLover014 said: I'll take anything. How about Monday/Tuesday? More snow Wednesday Snow chances on Saturday, Monday and Wednesday on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 The globals all agree that there are lots of chances coming up, with the 20-21 chance holding the most potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: The globals all agree that there are lots of chances coming up, with the 20-21 chance holding the most potential. Hope it stays that way, but 186 hours is a long time away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Light snow on Saturday and Sunday on the Euro. 3-5" isn't so light, IMO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 12, 2019 Author Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, RU848789 said: 3-5" isn't so light, IMO... It's 2 separate 1-2" events, at least on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 A storm brought generally 1"-3" snow and sleet to the region with some locally higher amounts today. This storm likely marks the beginning of the end of the winter 2018-19 snow drought. The SOI was -23.34 today. That's the lowest figure since November 17, 2018 when the SOI was -25.26. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.410. That is the highest value since May 3, 2018 when the AO was +2.620. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.304. Based on historic experience (1950-2018) concerning high AO values in the February 1-15 period, more than half of the remaining days in February will likely feature a positive AO. However, negative values and possibly strongly negative values could develop during the last week of the month. For the third consecutive day, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology reported no MJO data. However, based on model initialization (which is subject to some degree of error), the MJO was in Phase 7 on the February 11, but close to Phase 8. Assuming the model initialization is accurate, it would likely reach Phase 8 in the next day. This is faster than what had previously been modeled and could result in a lag before the atmosphere responds. Afterward, the outlook remains somewhat uncertain. The historical risks are somewhat weighted in favor of a possible return to Phase 7 from Phase 8 prior to any move to Phase 1. The bias-corrected GEFS still shows such an outcome, but the GEFS has moved away from it. The fog of uncertainty should begin to lift in coming days. For now, it remains more likely than not that the MJO will either be in Phase 7 or 8 at mid-month. A fairly stormy pattern is getting underway. Today's storm is sort of an appetizer for what lies ahead. It likely won't be the last snowfall threat for February. There is now broad consensus on the global models concerning additional opportunities for snowfall over the next two weeks. With some of the guidance continuing to suggest the development of the strongest westerly wind burst of the winter, the SOI could fall even farther in coming days. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. In short, the subtropical jet could become increasingly active during the second half of February. That idea fits the development of a stormy pattern and the theme of opportunities for snowfall as the month progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New York Blizzard Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 That’s a nice setup for a stationary front which could produce wave after wave which could easily be 4-8 inch snowstorm. The image above could produce the big snowstorm. The eps shows other smaller events. Like 4-8. The image below is the one that would could produce multiple 4-8, the one above could be a slow moving Miller A nor’easter, and the big one. Theres a lot moving parts, I’m not good at checking past events but I’m sure the storm from Hawaii is the top image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 33 minutes ago, New York Blizzard said: The image above could produce the big snowstorm. The eps shows other smaller events. Like 4-8. The image below is the one that would could produce multiple 4-8, the one above could be a slow moving Miller A nor’easter, and the big one. Theres a lot moving parts, I’m not good at checking past events but I’m sure the storm from Hawaii is the top image. Since when are 4-8 inch snowfalls small events for NYC? 6+ and that is a warning level snow. I would call 4-8 a moderate snowfall for sure. People forget that NYC's average snowfall amount really is not that impressive at 25.1 inches for 1981-2010. This decade has been really impressive averaging 38.4 inches. That being said, I like what I see in the mid-range for this season trying to salvage itself and get closer to average. It will still be a big undertaking, even with a favorable pattern to get to normal. It would actually be historic. People keep saying "remember last March", well March had 11.6, and April had 5.5. Even if we repeated that, we wouldn't be at average unless February, more specifically next week, truly starts to deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 36degs., or about 1deg. AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 9 hours ago, New York Blizzard said: That’s a nice setup for a stationary front which could produce wave after wave which could easily be 4-8 inch snowstorm. The image above could produce the big snowstorm. The eps shows other smaller events. Like 4-8. The image below is the one that would could produce multiple 4-8, the one above could be a slow moving Miller A nor’easter, and the big one. Theres a lot moving parts, I’m not good at checking past events but I’m sure the storm from Hawaii is the top image. Some notes about that storm in Hawaii. Hawaii recorded its lowest temperature ever at 11 degrees and lowest elevation for snowfall ever at 6600 ft. They also recorded their highest ever wind gust at 191 mph! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: A storm brought generally 1"-3" snow and sleet to the region with some locally higher amounts today. This storm likely marks the beginning of the end of the winter 2018-19 snow drought. The SOI was -23.34 today. That's the lowest figure since November 17, 2018 when the SOI was -25.26. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.410. That is the highest value since May 3, 2018 when the AO was +2.620. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.304. Based on historic experience (1950-2018) concerning high AO values in the February 1-15 period, more than half of the remaining days in February will likely feature a positive AO. However, negative values and possibly strongly negative values could develop during the last week of the month. For the third consecutive day, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology reported no MJO data. However, based on model initialization (which is subject to some degree of error), the MJO was in Phase 7 on the February 11, but close to Phase 8. Assuming the model initialization is accurate, it would likely reach Phase 8 in the next day. This is faster than what had previously been modeled and could result in a lag before the atmosphere responds. Afterward, the outlook remains somewhat uncertain. The historical risks are somewhat weighted in favor of a possible return to Phase 7 from Phase 8 prior to any move to Phase 1. The bias-corrected GEFS still shows such an outcome, but the GEFS has moved away from it. The fog of uncertainty should begin to lift in coming days. For now, it remains more likely than not that the MJO will either be in Phase 7 or 8 at mid-month. A fairly stormy pattern is getting underway. Today's storm is sort of an appetizer for what lies ahead. It likely won't be the last snowfall threat for February. There is now broad consensus on the global models concerning additional opportunities for snowfall over the next two weeks. With some of the guidance continuing to suggest the development of the strongest westerly wind burst of the winter, the SOI could fall even farther in coming days. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. In short, the subtropical jet could become increasingly active during the second half of February. That idea fits the development of a stormy pattern and the theme of opportunities for snowfall as the month progresses. Don does it look like we'll continue the pattern of the coastal huggers/runners that will result in more snow changing to rain scenarios? The SE Ridge has been strong this winter (with minor interruptions during Arctic outbreaks)- really a continuation of the strong SE Ridge from the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 19 hours ago, 495weatherguy said: I said this yesterday and people did not like it. Specifically I said Long Island would be hard pressed to see even 1 much of accumulating snow before the changeover. Not very well received It's obviously the inexperienced who dont remember what the 80s were like and we live near an Ocean that will always scour out mid level cold air sooner than models forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 We need to pick up some snowfall during the brief period when the the PNA becomes more neutral. The EPS is indicating another big -PNA drop right after with a strong SE Ridge amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: It's obviously the inexperienced who dont remember what the 80s were like and we live near an Ocean that will always scour out mid level cold air sooner than models forecast. I’m just amazed at how many “professionals” forget this information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 37 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Some notes about that storm in Hawaii. Hawaii recorded its lowest temperature ever at 11 degrees and lowest elevation for snowfall ever at 6600 ft. They also recorded their highest ever wind gust at 191 mph! Amazing stats Liberty! Thanks for sharing. I learn something new here every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 42 minutes ago, bluewave said: We need to pick up some snowfall during the brief period when the the PNA becomes more neutral. The EPS is indicating another big -PNA drop right after with a strong SE Ridge amplification. Goes to show how bad a winter can get. The MJO, AO and NAO all look to go favorable, then the PNA overrides all the positives. I am shocked I was able to reach 10 inches on the season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Goes to show how bad a winter can get. The MJO, AO and NAO all look to go favorable, then the PNA overrides all the positives. I am shocked I was able to reach 10 inches on the season so far. The contradictions in the Pacific are as extreme as it gets right now. A more Niña-like -PNA pattern for February with only a brief relaxation before dipping negative again later on. Couple that with the El Niño-like impressive - SOI drop and WWB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: The contradictions in the Pacific are as extreme as it gets right now. A more Niña-like -PNA pattern for February with only a brief relaxation before dipping negative again later on. Couple that with the El Niño-like impressive - SOI drop and WWB. I wonder if there are any good analog years to compare with this. I have to admit its fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Sorry, first time looking at the runs this morning, but GEM looks best for Saturday & Monday, GFS best on Wednesday's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 30 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Goes to show how bad a winter can get. The MJO, AO and NAO all look to go favorable, then the PNA overrides all the positives. I am shocked I was able to reach 10 inches on the season so far. 15 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I wonder if there are any good analog years to compare with this. I have to admit its fascinating. Ugly for sure. Just cant win this year. I was trying to think of analogs too-can't think of any... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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