TJW014 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, David-LI said: 12z GFS might be on to something here for the weekend. Almost looks like it wants to morph to a Miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 The troll posts are going bye-bye. Use the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Models are starting to show a very active pattern coming up. Not shocking at all considering the MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Jay Furtado is expecting the trough to stay centered out west, -PNA to continue right through the end of this month. This fits perfectly with MJO phases 7 & 8 along with a weak stratospheric polar vortex: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Jay Furtado is expecting the trough to stay centered out west, -PNA to continue right through the end of this month. This fits perfectly with MJO phases 7 & 8 along with a weak stratospheric polar vortex: How about the epo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Jay Furtado is expecting the trough to stay centered out west, -PNA to continue right through the end of this month. This fits perfectly with MJO phases 7 & 8 along with a weak stratospheric polar vortex: It also produces the equivalent of a massive and broad area of lower pressures near the 50/50 spot. We could easily score as long as the SE ridging isn't terribly strong. There's a massive supply of cold air to our N&W as well and it'll be plenty active too, no cold & suppressed worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WallexWall Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 GFS FV3 shows a snowstorm Sunday. Very interesting storm, how it’s digging. Yesterday’s 06z eps showed something like this? If any Mets could tell us if this could just be a burp from the model or this has a big potential? I really like the digging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 hour ago, WallexWall said: GFS FV3 shows a snowstorm Sunday. Very interesting storm, how it’s digging. Yesterday’s 06z eps showed something like this? If any Mets could tell us if this could just be a burp from the model or this has a big potential? I really like the digging No met but it has potential. Although this model burps a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 A storm will likely bring snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain to parts of the region tomorrow. The SOI was -19.02 today. That's the lowest figure since January 4, 2019 when the SOI was -20.30. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.205. That is the highest value since September 25, 2018 when the AO was +2.265. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.341. For the second consecutive day, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology reported no MJO data. However, based on model initialization (which is subject to some degree of error), the MJO was in Phase 7 today and near Phase 8. Assuming the model initialization is accurate, it would likely reach Phase 8 in the next day. This is faster than what had previously been modeled and could result in a lag before the atmosphere responds. Afterward, the outlook remains somewhat uncertain. The historical risks are somewhat weighted in favor of a possible return to Phase 7 from Phase 8 prior to any move to Phase 1. Both the GEFS and bias-corrected GEFS are now showing such an outcome. For now, it remains more likely than not that the MJO will either be in Phase 7 or 8 at mid-month. A fairly stormy pattern is now evolving. A complex system will likely bring a period of snow changing to sleet, freezing rain, then rain across the region later tonight and through tomorrow. Accumulations of 1"-3" in Philadelphia and 2"-4" in such cities as Newark and New York are likely. Well north and west of those areas (including Scranton and Binghamton) and eastward across parts of New England, including the snow-starved Boston area (where just 2.3" snow has been recorded to date), the potential exists for 3"-6". This likely won't be the last snowfall threat for February. With some of the guidance suggesting the development of the strongest westerly wind burst of the winter, the SOI could fall even farther in coming days. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. In short, the subtropical jet could become increasingly active during the second half of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 This is from a very intelligent meteorology student from another forum Brooklynwx "The period from 2/20 through early March could be quite historic, in my opinion. This will occur in two distinct "phases." 1) There will be a large thermal gradient with the NE in the cross hairs as a 500mb SE ridge takes shape. Although these always appear unfavorable looking at misleading anomaly maps, this feature is vital if you want an active pattern. In fact, there is a strong cold air feed at 2m due to the -NAO taking shape, which forces lower than average heights and HP in the 50/50 region and SE Canada. This pattern might look unfavorable for the E US at a quick glance, however, look at the 2m temperature anomalies valid for the same time frame: There isn't a warm spell in sight. This shows me that there is HP entrenched in SE Canada, which establishes a strong cold press into the NE US. Coupled with the SE ridge aloft, there could be numerous cold SWFEs and overrunning events. Coastals aren't too likely with that upper air setup, but those two storm types can produce prolific snowfall amounts on the right side of the thermal gradient (which I believe the NE US will be on). Also, notice the classic NAO/EPO/AO ridge bridge becoming established. This will set the stage for the second "phase." 2) As the polar blocking fully develops and ridging builds in the EPO and PNA domains, the mean trough will begin to migrate eastward. This will open up chances for major coastal systems to impact the E US. Here, the NAO blocking begins to retrograde into the Davis Strait, and the longwave trough moves into the C US as the western heights begin to rise with a strong STJ into S California. Everything is there: high heights throughout the polar regions, a broad trough over the C US extending into the E US, and a defined 50/50 signal. This is a little harder to see, but the TPV is elongated throughout SE Canada, which opens up a wide variety of phasing scenarios. This is an amazing look, and "thread the needle" won't be uttered often if this pattern comes to fruition. Overall, I believe that this is the best pattern that we have seen all winter, and it could prove to have historic results if it indeed comes to fruition. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Wer're going to need ''Historic'' to salvage this mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 31 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Wer're going to need ''Historic'' to salvage this mess. Pattern looks favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 41 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Pattern looks favorable I buy the overrunning potential, but you gotta watch that SE ridge. If it ends up stronger than normal then we're cooked. On the other hand, a strong westerly wind burst could boost the subtropical jet and prevent the SE ridging from screwing us over. Either way time is not on our side, we have about a month left of wintry potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 GFS is close to something decent for the 17-18 storm and really interesting for the 20-21 storm. CMC is very similar, although it does something weird with the latter just as it's about to hit us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 39degs., or about 4degs. AN. 34.3* here at 6am, no precip. 33.9* here at 7am, no precip. 34.1* here at 8am, no precip. 33.4* here at 9am, lite snow, since 8:30am. 30.3* here at 10am, mod. snow. 29.1* here at 11am, lite snow. 30.0* here at Noon, mod. snow. 30.5* here at 1pm, mod. snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: I buy the overrunning potential, but you gotta watch that SE ridge. If it ends up stronger than normal then we're cooked. On the other hand, a strong westerly wind burst could boost the subtropical jet and prevent the SE ridging from screwing us over. Either way time is not on our side, we have about a month left of wintry potential. Look at last March Plenty of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 SOI came in this morning at -23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Look at last March Plenty of time Last March was a once in a lifetime pattern, can't count on March. Realistically, we have about a 3 week window to cash in. We're running out of runway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: Last March was a once in a lifetime pattern, can't count on March. Realistically, we have about a 3 week window to cash in. We're running out of runway. True Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: Last March was a once in a lifetime pattern, can't count on March. Realistically, we have about a 3 week window to cash in. We're running out of runway. Up through the 1st week of march-climo wise-gets tougher after that in any given year. Sure there was last year, but typically, it's a rough road after the 1st week or so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 10 hours ago, Snow88 said: Pattern looks favorable As it has the whole year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Mjo spending a couple weeks in 8-1, soi double digit negative and the best looking model runs all winter..may amount to nothing but get some sleep because it looks like we finally have multiple threats to track for at least a few weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: We haven’t been able to extrapolate much beyond day 6-10 with so many competing influences. Notice how the big -PNA snuck up on the models during the last week if January. Too many chefs in the kitchen this winter so far....all sorts of things wrecking what could have been a good pattern, Strong Pac Jet, poor MJO, +NAO etc etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 President's Day our next chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 12, 2019 Author Share Posted February 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, CarLover014 said: President's Day our next chance? Yeah but Wednesday of next week looks like the better chance Also have to watch Saturday, could be rain, snow or a miss. Models are all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 19 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah but Wednesday of next week looks like the better chance Also have to watch Saturday, could be rain, snow or a miss. Models are all over the place Just assume rain, and we'll get snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 hours ago, kat5hurricane said: Last March was a once in a lifetime pattern, can't count on March. Realistically, we have about a 3 week window to cash in. We're running out of runway. Why was it a once in a lifetime pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Snowshack said: Why was it a once in a lifetime pattern? When was the last time we saw 4 major winter storms one right after the other in March with a few being historic? It was unprecedented. Not everybody got hit with each one (especially in the immediate metro where we were skunked a few times) but many did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 9:18 AM, jfklganyc said: Different pattern, similar conversation, similar result? nah, not similar to jan 20 or any other storm this winter - at all. if it were similar, it would be raining and well into the 30s by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: nah, not similar to jan 20 or any other storm this winter - at all. if it were similar, it would be raining and well into the 30s by now. That is coming. 1 hour of snow for Midtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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