MJO812 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 14 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The new ensembles are ugly right into mid month Which ensembles ? Eps is not ugly right into mid month. There is a decent signal for a storm around the 11-12 but too early for details. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edubbs83 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Which ensembles ? Eps is not ugly right into mid month. There is a decent signal for a storm around the 11-12 but too early for details. What’s with the change in the profile photo? Maybe it changes our luck this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 I agree with Snow88. EPS is crumbs to mid-month, especially Week 2. Then it is BN for 30 days everywhere in US. But this is going to be stale cold air because of its wide coverage, late winter arrival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Welcome to February and radiational cooling in nw NJ, Lows this morning 10 below, Pequest, Andover (12N), 15 below Sussex (FWN), 16-22 Below Sandyston and Walpack respectively, all in Warren and Sussex Counties of nw NJ. My house (740'MSL in Wantage NJ, ~3 mi from FWN and 250' higher only -2. Ditto -2 at High Point. This over 4" snow cover throughout. Guidance (coldest MOS), missed Sussex by at least 7F. I believe these subzero readings will occur again tonight, though probably 5 or 10F warmer. Still, we're not quite out of this below normal cold airmass here. I am also aware of the EC 2M 7-10Fbust for yesterday morning near CHI (uncommon in a well mixed environment). At least it picked up on Rockford, and apparently per Joe Bastardi tweet, it got down to near ~ -38F in nw IL (unconfirmed coldest state record?). Have a good day anticipating, after Feb 6 (ice events i84), or after Feb 14 (snow) as many have noted here. A BIG test for FV3 vs the currently operational GFS from Feb 7 onward when the FV3 is much colder than its soon to replace GFS. This one I want to remember (Feb 7-15 00z/06z versions). I've seen FV3 miss date of events compared to the current GFS. However, am informed that the FV3 is apparently better on on type than the GFS. This I dont know. I may not break able top respond after 845A today. By the way, you're seeing infrastructure impacts now in the coldest parts of the country-watert mains. Yesterday here in nw NJ... groups of trucks could not start early yesterday morning (subzero), delaying deliveries. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 11 minutes ago, CIK62 said: I agree with Snow88. EPS is crumbs to mid-month, especially Week 2. Then it is BN for 30 days everywhere in US. But this is going to be stale cold air because of its wide coverage, late winter arrival. Root for the EPS to get the MJO over to phase 8 around the 10th. But remember there can be a lag. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 15 minutes ago, Edubbs83 said: What’s with the change in the profile photo? Maybe it changes our luck this winter. I usually do this to change our luck lol 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Root for the EPS to get the MJO over to phase 8 around the 10th. But remember there can be a lag. Phase 8 or COD would be ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 33 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Phase 8 or COD would be ideal. Anything that weakens the forcing west of the Date Line could be a potential plus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 49 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Which ensembles ? Eps is not ugly right into mid month. There is a decent signal for a storm around the 11-12 but too early for details. We’ll see what happens post 2/15 but up to that point it does not look good 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 35 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I usually do this to change our luck lol Maybe you should have done that 4 weeks ago,,,just sayin 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Some light at the end of the tunnel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Looks like the coming warm up with the -PNA in early February is a result of the slower passage of the MJO through phase 6. I remember when it wasn't even forecasted to get back to phase 6 only two weeks ago.... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: I agree with Snow88. EPS is crumbs to mid-month, especially Week 2. Then it is BN for 30 days everywhere in US. But this is going to be stale cold air because of its wide coverage, late winter arrival. If it comes at all. The 1st week Feb Warmup was only seen about a week out. Who knows what it will look like come 2/15....modeling has been horrid this winter... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 36 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: If it comes at all. The 1st week Feb Warmup was only seen about a week out. Who knows what it will look like come 2/15....modeling has been horrid this winter... Some people had basically guaranteed we would be in MJO phase 8, cold and snowy the 1st 2 weeks of February and look at what happened 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Just now, snowman19 said: Some people had basically guaranteed we would be in MJO phase 8, cold and snowy the 1st 2 weeks of February and look at what happened or that the MJO "would not matter in this pattern" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: I remember when it wasn't even forecasted to get back to phase 6 only two weeks ago.... The Euro had the MJO going into phase 6 for a while now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 2 hours ago, bluewave said: We will need to see the MJO forcing west of the Date Line fade out a bit to get some Improvement. The current lingering and lag with the MJO in phase 6 flipped the PNA negative. Need to weaken the -PNA as the month progresses to get the gradient to our south and see colder temperatures again. The new CANSIPS has a huge RNA/-PNA pattern for February 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 EPS MJO plots would give us our 2-3 week window post 2/10 or 2/15 once you account for lag. It's possible this window could stretch till 3/15 though it's doubtful. Again this assumes the Euro is correct in its forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 12 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The new CANSIPS has a huge RNA/-PNA pattern for February Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 59 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Some people had basically guaranteed we would be in MJO phase 8, cold and snowy the 1st 2 weeks of February and look at what happened HM was the the only one who said he had a hunch in mid January we would cycle through the bad phases again but he wasnt too confident either way. It still looks to me we will go normal to below 2-7 or 2/8 and beyond but we may have a cutter 2/10-2/12 before we completely reverse things 2/15 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 15 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Link? I’m pretty sure this isn’t even physically possible but here it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 27 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I’m pretty sure this isn’t even physically possible but here it is. How accurate are the Snips? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: How accurate are the Snips? almost doesnt matter this winter-LR guidance has been complete garbage for the most part. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 49 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: How accurate are the Snips? It’s just highly unlikely you would have that big of a ridge in the east with that type of block. The SE ridge would be beaten down in such a setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It’s just highly unlikely you would have that big of a ridge in the east with that type of block. The SE ridge would be beaten down in such a setup Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Educate me here a little please if you will. With so much emphasis on the MJO, am I correct in assuming that this index is the top driver of our pattern? Is it the MJO phase that determines the shape of other Tele indeces like the NAO, AO, PNA, etc?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 13 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Educate me here a little please if you will. With so much emphasis on the MJO, am I correct in assuming that this index is the top driver of our pattern? Is it the MJO phase that determines the shape of other Tele indeces like the NAO, AO, PNA, etc?! if you want to get educated on the MJO its better to read articles online by qualified pros - around here you will get 50 different opinions... https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-mjo-and-why-do-we-care 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: if you want to get educated on the MJO its better to read articles online by qualified pros - around here you will get 50 different opinions... https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-mjo-and-why-do-we-care OK thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now