purduewx80 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, qg_omega said: not bad at all, one of the best for sure to date, not so good for the east as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just now, purduewx80 said: not so good for the east as a whole. Miles better than any forecast I have seen on here or wx Twitter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 10 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: As a reminder: Dec 1 - Feb 2 anomalies (from Maue's twitter): We're in that sweet spot between NNE and the southeast where they've done well (northern MA/SNE, that is). Not as well to the north and south. They were thinking a more traditional nino pattern I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just now, NorthShoreWx said: We're in that sweet spot between NNE and the southeast where they've done well (northern MA/SNE, that is). Not as well to the north and south. They were thinking a more traditional nino pattern I believe. yeah, you're exactly right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 What a winter to be in Caribou They must be over 120 inches for the season with alot more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 The only real cold this winter for our area so far was between January 21 and February 1. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: What a winter to be in Caribou They must be over 120 inches for the season with alot more to come. 81.4" since Dec 1 and 114.2" since Jul 1. That's +48.2" for the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 hour ago, purduewx80 said: I wouldn't exactly say rare. look at the run from 2008-2013-it really drops off after that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just now, purduewx80 said: 81.4" since Dec 1 and 114.2" since Jul 1. That's +48.2" for the season. makes sense with a storm track to our N and W. I'm sure they were below normal the years were we really cashed in.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 12z models horrid....cutters cutters and more cutters... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 UKMET? I thought it looked slightly better on the 24 hour panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: look at the run from 2008-2013-it really drops off after that.... Huh, look at that delightful run smack dab during my elementary school years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 12z models horrid....cutters cutters and more cutters... If that's true then spring can't get here fast enough. I know I'm ready to move past this horror show of a winter. But then again the models have been garbage outside 3 days. If we don't see any more snow the rest of winter then it'll be the worst met winter I've ever experienced. Yes worse than 01/02 and 11/12 due to the constant teases, the atrocious forecasts, the near normal temps and the well AN precip that was 99.99% rain. At least those winters were nice, dry & warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: If that's true then spring can't get here fast enough. I know I'm ready to move past this horror show of a winter. But then again the models have been garbage outside 3 days. the problem is that the same general pattern continues-troughs into the west, no blocking, SE ridge, any decent storm is cutting with that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 12z models horrid....cutters cutters and more cutters... Even with that though, we would have one nice highlight if we can get a 3 to 6 inch snowfall before the change to sleet and rain with tuesday's storm. GGEM and UKMET look pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: the problem is that the same general pattern continues-troughs into the west, no blocking, SE ridge, any decent storm is cutting with that... a favorable MJO does not guarantee snowstorms in the NYC metro ……………... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 28 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Why is everyone not looking at the Mjo? a favorable MJO does not guarantee snowstorms in the NYC metro ……………… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: a favorable MJO does not guarantee snowstorms in the NYC metro ……………… There's also a lag that takes place. Plus there's still a discrepancy as to when the MJO gets to phase 8 and beyond. I noticed today's EPS is stalling it right near phase 7/8 for a few days, bad sign if true. Last year the MJO went through favorable phases in mid Feb but we didn't see the effects till March. The upcoming storm is also occurring before the more favorable MJO phases would settle in. AO will be positive as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 The GFS will never get an event like this correct ever at this range. Based on that high postition and the degree of lift that’s easily a repeat of the November event with probably 3-6 inches even to the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: There's also a lag that takes place. Plus there's still a discrepancy as to when the MJO gets to phase 8 and beyond. I noticed today's EPS is stalling it right near phase 7/8 for a few days, bad sign if true. Last year the MJO went through favorable phases in mid Feb but we didn't see the effects till March. I think we had a SSW last Feb too-but as we've seen this year-no guarantee how those play out. All we got this year was 2 quick arctic outbreaks that came and went Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 The 12Z UKMET sand 00Z Euro still want to show some overrunning snows Sunday night into Monday with the initial wave. The GFS has never had it and the NAM has now dropped it recent runs for the most part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jr461 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 12 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Even with that though, we would have one nice highlight if we can get a 3 to 6 inch snowfall before the change to sleet and rain with tuesday's storm. GGEM and UKMET look pretty good. Why is it a "nice highlight" to get a few inches only to be shortly washed away? I don't get that even for a snow lover. That only serves to make travel difficult, snarl traffic and cause transit delays with no lasting effect (although the nice highlight there is no piles of filthy plowed snow for weeks on end). Even when I loved snow like the rest of you, when it was a snow to rain scenario, which almost always seemed to be the case growing up, I became disinterested. That's what made the '78 storm (I think it was then) so much fun - it was supposed to have changed to rain before midnight but in the morning was a great surprise - just sleet leftover with more than a foot of snow on the ground. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 I believe NYC needs only 4.4 inches to get out of the top 10 least snowiest winters. Looks unlikely at this point that won’t happen this month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: I believe NYC needs only 4.4 inches to get out of the top 10 least snowiest winters. Looks unlikely at this point that won’t happen this month Really?? We still have 20 days left in Feb. A lot can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The GFS will never get an event like this correct ever at this range. Based on that high postition and the degree of lift that’s easily a repeat of the November event with probably 3-6 inches even to the coast that's what your company is forecasting for this event ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I think we had a SSW last Feb too-but as we've seen this year-no guarantee how those play out. All we got this year was 2 quick arctic outbreaks that came and went https://mobile.twitter.com/DrAHButler/status/1092475952557449216 Well all right then. Sometimes you are humbled by what you'd hoped would be a predictable signal. This #SSW is just refusing to cooperate. That is a crazy swing towards +AO ahead, if it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Really?? We still have 20 days left in Feb. A lot can happen. I worded that badly. I meant I think it WILL happen this month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I worded that badly. I meant I think it WILL happen this month That's much better, lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 I AGREE WITH THIS FROM UPTON: THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR WILL ALSO HAVE A ROLE IN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. CURRENTLY THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE TRACKING ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST TUESDAY AND THEN TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS TRACK PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS SNOW AND TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN RAIN ALONG THE COAST. THE TRANSITION MAY EVEN BE AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL CONNECTICUT LATER TUESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION THEN CHANGES BACK TO SNOW AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY LATER WEDNESDAY. AS STATED PREVIOUSLY, THIS ALL DEPENDS ON BOTH THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND ALSO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE OF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALSO, SYSTEMS IN THE EXTENDED HAVE TRENDED WARMER FOR MUCH OF THIS WINTER AND THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THIS IS OCCURRING IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS, AS THE 06Z GFS IS A LITTLE WARMER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 10 minutes ago, jr461 said: Why is it a "nice highlight" to get a few inches only to be shortly washed away? I don't get that even for a snow lover. That only serves to make travel difficult, snarl traffic and cause transit delays with no lasting effect (although the nice highlight there is no piles of filthy plowed snow for weeks on end). Even when I loved snow like the rest of you, when it was a snow to rain scenario, which almost always seemed to be the case growing up, I became disinterested. That's what made the '78 storm (I think it was then) so much fun - it was supposed to have changed to rain before midnight but in the morning was a great surprise - just sleet leftover with more than a foot of snow on the ground. You don't understand snow lovers then. I absolutely love everything about seeing snow falling and accumulating, even if it gets washed away, since I enjoy watching it and being out in it - sure I'd like it to stick around, but that's secondary to me. And it's even more fun if that snow was well predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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