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February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread


Stormlover74

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4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

12 days away-pure fantasy at this point...

Of course it is but  if the MJO does go into phase 8 which looks like it will, we might see winter coming back after the 1st week of February.

DT and others think that will be the case.

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The mixed El Niño and La Niña themes continue this winter. A very La Niña-like -PNA pattern during the first week of February. While the CPC composite is just a snapshot of the first week period, notice how many La Nina’s are in there. Hopefully, the weeklies are correct about improvements in the pattern as the month progresses.

 

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3 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I’m thinking we get 21 inches in February. Gfs 18z has a storm around that timeframe nothing crazy but the nor’easter is there

Well, there it is: This winter summed up perfectly in one post: A 240hr 18z GFS snowstorm that shows "nothing crazy."

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7 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

12 days away-pure fantasy at this point...

The ever elusive “MJO phase 8” and “Euro weeklies” for the last 2+ months. They’re both like Clark Kent and Superman, one on a model forecast and one in reality, they’re never seen together...

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11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The new ensembles are ugly right into mid month

We will need to see the MJO forcing west of the Date Line fade out a bit to get some Improvement. The current lingering and lag with the MJO in phase 6 flipped the PNA negative. Need to weaken the -PNA as the month progresses to get the gradient to our south and see colder temperatures again.

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