RedSky Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 If this happens...the crazy uncle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 51 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I’d rather get a colder solution with less snow than heavier wet snow to heavy rain come on guys. We’re a team Have to agree with you here. I wouldn’t spike the football yet though. But at the this point I would take an advisory event and run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 A big cutter is unlikely with the big pro ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Gfs FV3 is a lot like like it’s brother gfs but a bit more amped and does change to rain. But it’s a bit more snow cause of heavier precipitation. Euro up to 120hrs is a lot less amped and colder. Let’s see how the run finishes edit: euro is on board for a snowstorm here for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Euro is snow to ice to rain, but it trended considerably colder than 0z with a much weaker primary as well. Hopefully these trends continue. E: Actually, many never go over to plain rain. City is right on the line. Widespread 3-6" for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Euro looks great. Waiting on clown maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Just now, Gravity Wave said: Euro is snow to ice to rain, but it trended considerably colder than 0z with a much weaker primary as well. Hopefully these trends continue. north of the city does better verbatim, but you're right the primary in the lakes is weaker but not weak enough to give us mostly snow....yet. Better trends today for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 It wasn't long ago that the ECM and the Ukie were close cousins in figuring things out, now different worlds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: north of the city does better verbatim, but you're right the primary in the lakes is weaker but not weak enough to give us mostly snow....yet. Better trends today for sure. Euro barely gets NYC above freezing now The weaker the storm is the better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 good trends , no ? We need the primary weaker !!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Just now, Brasiluvsnow said: good trends , no ? We need the primary weaker !!!!! Yes great trends 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 I’ll laugh if winter ends the same way it started with a 6” storm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Euro snowfall map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Doesn't look so hot to me with the snow south thing Monday and mild rain the next weekend when it had a MECS. It got worse in every way. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: Doesn't look so hot to me with the snow south thing Monday and mild rain the next weekend when it had a MECS. It got worse in every way. Uh? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 In an unusual occurrence, we actually have at least temporary near consensus on a storm 5 days out. I'm guessing that's just a very unlikely coincidence and we'll see more divergence later. Anyway, every major global model is now showing a weaker initial low, cutting towards the eastern Great Lakes and most show a weak secondary low forming near the coast. This means less precip, but also less warm air intrusion, meaning more snow than rain, but not a huge wintry event - more in the range of a 2-4/4-8" kind of event, with a ceiling of 10" and a floor of maybe 1-2". Sign me up. Note that, these numbers are per current models and are not a forecast, per se; also, note that all rain is extremely unlikely as currently modeled, but that could change, still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 11 minutes ago, David-LI said: Euro snowfall map? This is without sleet figured in https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2019020712/new-jersey/snow-depth-in/20190213-0000z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 57 minutes ago, Snow88 said: A big cutter is unlikely with the big pro ridge. That’s not even a true classic EPO ridge. The setup is still horrible. I don’t believe secondary coastal development with no blocking in the Atlantic. Still -PNA, ++AO, ++NAO. This whole thing is going to turn out not the way you want it, I’m telling you 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 11 minutes ago, RU848789 said: In an unusual occurrence, we actually have at least temporary near consensus on a storm 5 days out. I'm guessing that's just a very unlikely coincidence and we'll see more divergence later. Anyway, every major global model is now showing a weaker initial low, cutting towards the eastern Great Lakes and most show a weak secondary low forming near the coast. This means less precip, but also less warm air intrusion, meaning more snow than rain, but not a huge wintry event - more in the range of a 2-4/4-8" kind of event, with a ceiling of 10" and a floor of maybe 1-2". Sign me up. Note that, these numbers are per current models and are not a forecast, per se; also, note that all rain is extremely unlikely as currently modeled, but that could change, still. The way this winter is going a 2-4 inch event would be great, a 4-8 inch event would be awesome 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowheavyattimes Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 If we do get a snowstorm(believe it when I see it), maybe that will be the start of a new and hopefully snowy pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 9 minutes ago, snowman19 said: That’s not even a true classic EPO ridge. The setup is still horrible. I don’t believe secondary coastal development with no blocking in the Atlantic. Still -PNA, ++AO, ++NAO. This whole thing is going to turn out not the way you want it, I’m telling you Unfortunately I lean toward agreeing. The bigger risk here is more amped and warm rather than surpressed but hopefully the needle is thread well enough to give the area some wintry precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 21 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Unfortunately I lean toward agreeing. The bigger risk here is more amped and warm rather than surpressed but hopefully the needle is thread well enough to give the area some wintry precip Respectfully disagree, I think the confluence will shred that primary apart. Just look at the Ukmet. 31 minutes ago, snowman19 said: That’s not even a true classic EPO ridge. The setup is still horrible. I don’t believe secondary coastal development with no blocking in the Atlantic. Still -PNA, ++AO, ++NAO. This whole thing is going to turn out not the way you want it, I’m telling you It's not horrible at all. You don't need a -NAO/+PNA, the -EPO is causing a lot of confluence that will shred that primary and cause it to trend further south. AO goes positive but tanks before mid-month. MJO may be in phase 8. It's not an ideal setup obviously and I think it'll play out as a SWFE with a snow to ice to rain setup. However given the strong high to the north, temps may not rise above freezing so Snow to Ice may be more likely. I'm thinking it'll be a 3-6 front-ender rn. All models have trended towards a much weaker, colder, strung out system, which would be a lot better for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 To me, this is all about heights in Canada. Higher heights in Canada and some stronger surface HP and you've got less likelihood of inland runner ruining things. You want some confluence in this scenario. I think there's an interesting analog from Feb '08 that was a fairly similar scenario. Not ideal, but similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Just reading the threads and the model updates...this all looks very familiar. Like we did this same exact thing 2 weeks ago. Just saying... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 33 minutes ago, snowman19 said: That’s not even a true classic EPO ridge. The setup is still horrible. I don’t believe secondary coastal development with no blocking in the Atlantic. Still -PNA, ++AO, ++NAO. This whole thing is going to turn out not the way you want it, I’m telling you Snowman vs. an entire model consensus. classic! if it does turn out the way you are implying (strong primary into the lakes) which I said yesterday had a 50/50 chance and today is down to 25/75 you will be here with I told you so. If not, you will be mia for sure 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 2 hours ago, weatherlogix said: The JMA wasn't around in 1996, at least not in he mainstream It was some Japanese model..thought it was JMA..it definitely was not mainstream..may have been called something else back then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Just reading the threads and the model updates...this all looks very familiar. Like we did this same exact thing 2 weeks ago. Just saying... True this is a different setup though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 12 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Just reading the threads and the model updates...this all looks very familiar. Like we did this same exact thing 2 weeks ago. Just saying... I don’t recall this amount of model concensus 5 days out. 2 weeks ago there wasn’t concensus and whatever snow was shown on a model or two or three fell apart between day 7 and day 5 if I recall and the last straggler holding on to a snow storm caved around day 5 then. We’re definitely ahead of where we’ve been recently but still a ways to go. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 I’ll take my 3-6 and run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Esp is also coming in weaker 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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