Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 What went wrong (so far) Strong Pac Jet into the West Coast SOI-mostly positive AO/NAO-mostly positive MJO-mostly in bad phases of 4/5/6 for the bulk of the winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: What went wrong (so far) Strong Pac Jet into the West Coast SOI-mostly positive AO/NAO-mostly positive MJO-mostly in bad phases of 4/5/6 for the bulk of the winter Time to move on. Got drawn in this morning, but at least these storm potentials are falling apart more quickly now so we don't waste days tracking rain or clouds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: What went wrong (so far) Strong Pac Jet into the West Coast SOI-mostly positive AO/NAO-mostly positive MJO-mostly in bad phases of 4/5/6 for the bulk of the winter The pattern took a long term turn for the worst on Thanksgiving week, right after the 11/15 storm. By the last week of November you saw the PAC jet and the Pacific overall was going to be a real big problem and it hasn’t quit since. Looks like the AO is going to go super positive starting next week. That’s probably going to be the nail in the coffin for the rest of February, next week is already mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Look I think we shouldn’t be sleeping on the wave Sunday night into monday morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Everyone should see some light snow Monday with a dusting to an inch areawide. The 2nd wave is still up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The pattern took a long term turn for the worst on Thanksgiving week, right after the 11/15 storm. By the last week of November you saw the PAC jet and the Pacific overall was going to be a real big problem and it hasn’t quit since. Looks like the AO is going to go super positive starting next week. That’s probably going to be the nail in the coffin for the rest of February, next week is already mid month People in the mid Atlantic subforum and on other forums are talking about how the SOI is going to crash and maybe a great pattern will develop. Too early to throw in the towel since it can still snow in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 52 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: That's only because of the small sample. If you look at the few events, it does seem they are followed by less than stellar winters in recent decades. I agree with Brian but the sample is small Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Everyone should see some light snow Monday with a dusting to an inch areawide. The 2nd wave is still up in the air. the 2nd wave is coming in as a massive cutter on the GFS-it will vaporize the dusting from Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: People in the mid Atlantic subforum and on other forums are talking about how the SOI is going to crash and maybe a great pattern will develop. Too early to throw in the towel since it can still snow in April. people have been talking about an SOI crash for a month...hasn't happened 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Just now, Brian5671 said: the 2nd wave is coming in as a massive cutter on the GFS-it will vaporize the dusting from Monday It is going to be a cutter but the transfer is still yet to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Gfs looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 8 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Gfs looks better mostly rain.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 8 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Gfs looks better Tries to do a secondary but fails. All rain after a little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 The mjo of the gefs is insane. It's literally all the charts in phase 8 near mid month. Something is gotta give. Usually with that amplitude , the AO and PNA gets better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 24 minutes ago, Snow88 said: People in the mid Atlantic subforum and on other forums are talking about how the SOI is going to crash and maybe a great pattern will develop. Too early to throw in the towel since it can still snow in April. We’ve been hearing about SOI crashes and cold, snowy patterns on the way for months, 3 months in a row to be exact. This is the boy who cried wolf now. The pattern looks real bad right through late February. FOOD FOR THOUGHT: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 I’m done until Sunday. I can’t take this pressure! I’m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 PARA looks amazing. But it’s the Para.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 18z GFS and 18z PARA couldn’t be more opposite of each other. Absolutely effin horrible. Ef this winter right in the A.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 PNA hopefully relaxes a bit by the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Meanwhile the MJO does its thing. Looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 At least para didn’t change course like gfs did. Don’t forget gfs flunked the November 15th snowstorm. I’ll shut up now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 I wish @Isotherm would post. I wonder what his thoughts are. I haven’t seen a post from him in a while. He’s been solid (minus the snowfall so far) for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Does anyone know where I can see the Ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A_Status Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Long time lurker, but newbie poster with a question here: how much of a correlation is there between the MJO and AO/NAO? It seems that with models in increasing agreement on a P8 MJO by midmonth that AO (at the very least) should respond by going negative? What other factors could allow a +AO during a P8 MJO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 I love it!!! Canceling winter in early feb, with a extremely high amplitude MJO wave into 8/1!!! you guys rock! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I love it!!! Canceling winter in early feb, with a extremely high amplitude MJO wave into 8/1!!! you guys rock! The same people canceled winter last year in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The same people canceled winter last year in February. Sure it can snow in late March and early April, but does that really do anything? Do you enjoy seeing snow for a few hours in spring? Honestly the reason people are throwing in the towel is because for most people merely having a snow storm isn’t enough. We want the snow to last. Enjoy real winter. Not 6 inches of snow fell overnight and it is gone by dinner time. Next week is the middle of February. Whether you want to believe it or not, the sun is heading towards the Tropic of Cancer. The sun will be higher and higher in the sky. We are now leaving our solar minimum for the year. Yes it can snow all the way to the beginning of May, but spring snow is never the same as January and early February true winter snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Para has a widespread blizzard here with 2-3 feet of snow from Virginia to Boston! 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, JustinRP37 said: Sure it can snow in late March and early April, but does that really do anything? Do you enjoy seeing snow for a few hours in spring? Honestly the reason people are throwing in the towel is because for most people merely having a snow storm isn’t enough. We want the snow to last. Enjoy real winter. Not 6 inches of snow fell overnight and it is gone by dinner time. Next week is the middle of February. Whether you want to believe it or not, the sun is heading towards the Tropic of Cancer. The sun will be higher and higher in the sky. We are now leaving our solar minimum for the year. Yes it can snow all the way to the beginning of May, but spring snow is never the same as January and early February true winter snow. My sentiments exactly. But I still wouldn't mind March or April snow. Put it this way, when I got the snowblower out for last April's snow, people laughed about it." It will be gone by this afternoon, why bother?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 6 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Para has a widespread blizzard here with 2-3 feet of snow from Virginia to Boston! It's a dream scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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