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February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread


Stormlover74

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Some people here sound like PTSD sufferers.  We're 6 days out and the global models show somewhere from a little to some to a lot of snow early next week.  That's much better than most things we've been tracking since November.  Could it end up mostly/all rain for 95 and even inland?  Sure, but it could also end up being mostly snow or somewhere in-between, which would at least be something.  I just like being in the game.  

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1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Some people here sound like PTSD sufferers.  We're 6 days out and the global models show somewhere from a little to some to a lot of snow early next week.  That's much better than most things we've been tracking since November.  Could it end up mostly/all rain for 95 and even inland?  Sure, but it could also end up being mostly snow or somewhere in-between, which would at least be something.  I just like being in the game.  

I think most are lamenting the death of a decent wintry period.   Sure we could get a storm or two, but the big winter is dead and weeks of disappointment on individual threats has certainly taken its toll.   One of the worst winters to date by far....

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7 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Some people here sound like PTSD sufferers.  We're 6 days out and the global models show somewhere from a little to some to a lot of snow early next week.  That's much better than most things we've been tracking since November.  Could it end up mostly/all rain for 95 and even inland?  Sure, but it could also end up being mostly snow or somewhere in-between, which would at least be something.  I just like being in the game.  

People do have PTSD this winter because we have “been in the game” many times this winter only for it to be rain. 

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26 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Some people here sound like PTSD sufferers.  We're 6 days out and the global models show somewhere from a little to some to a lot of snow early next week.  That's much better than most things we've been tracking since November.  Could it end up mostly/all rain for 95 and even inland?  Sure, but it could also end up being mostly snow or somewhere in-between, which would at least be something.  I just like being in the game.  

You know that isn't as likely.

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1 minute ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

You know that isn't as likely.

If Anthony doesn't see the possibility then that surely means all possibilities for signifiant snow are off the table. Earlier a pro met on this site commented that if this coming setup couldn't deliver snow, then we are basically just snake bitten this winter. I haven't seen a stinker of this magnitude since 2012, another year with an odd early snow storm.

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4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

If Anthony doesn't see the possibility then that surely means all possibilities for signifiant snow are off the table. Earlier a pro met on this site commented that if this coming setup couldn't deliver snow, then we are basically just snake bitten this winter. I haven't seen a stinker of this magnitude since 2012, another year with an odd early snow storm.

Late October/Early Nov Snow-the kiss of death

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31 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I think most are lamenting the death of a decent wintry period.   Sure we could get a storm or two, but the big winter is dead and weeks of disappointment on individual threats has certainly taken its toll.   One of the worst winters to date by far....

I've been through worse. The winter of 2001/2002 comes to mind, and don't get me started with the 1980's other than a few big storms once in a great while.

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8 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

I've been through worse. The winter of 2001/2002 comes to mind, and don't get me started with the 1980's other than a few big storms once in a great while.

But in the 80's you didn't lose days and days to oddly warm weather, something that happens more and more often.

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18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Late October/Early Nov Snow-the kiss of death

It was the track of the November snowstorm that has been part of the problem. It was a hugger that perfectly ran into the Arctic high before it could depart to the NE. All our other tracks have been warm huggers, cutters, or suppressed southern stream. The early November snowstorm in 2012 was near the benchmark. That storm track remained active for 12-13 season peaking with the February  blizzard. Benchmark tracks have been an endangered species this year.

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12 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I wouldn't be shocked if we get 1 major snowstorm this month or next month and then spring.

I wouldn't be shocked if we don't get any either, though. It has the feel of the kind year where it ain't gonna come together. Worse, those years can come in bunches. Keep waiting for something to happen and it isn't; there were clouds of salt dust on 287 today. A least a good soaking rain will get rid of that.

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Under the guiding principal of "EVERYBODY PLAYS THE FOOL, THERE'S NO EXCEPTION TO THE RULE.   IT MAY BE FACTUAL-IT MAY BE CRUEL, the CMC steps up to the plate to show the storm as the GFS/EURO get set to show more rain than anything.  The  FV3 is untested, unproven.

 

Wonder what a reanalysis of all the models  is going to show for the winter.    MJO/ENSO/TeleConn.  outlooks must be among the worst.

 

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Just now, CIK62 said:

Under the guiding principal of "EVERYBODY PLAYS THE FOOL, THERE'S NO EXCEPTION TO THE RULE.   IT MAY BE FACTUAL-IT MAY BE CRUEL, the CMC steps up to the plate to show the storm as the GFS/EURO get set to show more rain than anything.  The  FV3 is untested, unproven.

 

Wonder what a reanalysis of all the models  is going to show for the winter.    MJO/ENSO/TeleConn.  outlooks must be among the worst.

 

Euro weeklies horrendous beyond belief this season....

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46 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

If Anthony doesn't see the possibility then that surely means all possibilities for signifiant snow are off the table. Earlier a pro met on this site commented that if this coming setup couldn't deliver snow, then we are basically just snake bitten this winter. I haven't seen a stinker of this magnitude since 2012, another year with an odd early snow storm.

Or maybe you just wore him down.  Cheer up, there will always be weather.

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