bluewave Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 You can see how 60 degree days during the winter are becoming much more common than they used to be. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 11 hours ago, JustinRP37 said: No they are not. It is the sea surface temperature (2m) anomaly based on the mean from 1981 to 2005. That is the standard used in oceanic studies at the time. No clue why it is different than the time period we use for air temperature normals. I have a background in aquatic studies, so I know this stuff. The sea surface is what affects our weather, which is what these maps are showing. Gain depth in water and you rapidly cool. World-wide ocean temp below 1000 meters is right around 4C. The thermocline in a given area does not change much. The sea surface is what varies throughout the year. This is actually one of the coolest properties of water, and hence why northern lakes can upwell twice a year. Water is most dense at 4C, after which it becomes less dense as it crystallizes into ice. Warmer than 4C and it becomes less dense as well. Hence why our warm water floats on the colder water in the summer. https://undark.org/article/hurricane-drone-rutgers/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 8 hours ago, nycwinter said: you seriously buying what the gfs is showing? of course he does hook line and sinker...…... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 8 minutes ago, Hitman said: https://undark.org/article/hurricane-drone-rutgers/ Very cool article! Shows just what happens when you get some serious upwelling. We saw that a few times this summer too when got some upwelling and temps crashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 55 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: Very cool article! Shows just what happens when you get some serious upwelling. We saw that a few times this summer too when got some upwelling and temps crashed. Plenty of high octane fuel off the US East Coast if we ever see a traditional benchmark storm. Notice the big temperature rise over the last few months. The tripole pattern has been in full swing in recent years with record SST’s off the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Plenty of high octane fuel off the US East Coast if we ever see a traditional benchmark storm. Notice the big temperature rise over the last few months. The tripole pattern has been in full swing in recent years with record SST’s off the East Coast. Exactly. I often get people asking why have we seen more substantial snowstorms if the nearby ocean is warm. I tell the the same thing, we got a lot of fuel that feeds the moisture into the system and throws it back to the coast. That is one reason I am holding out hope that we can at least approach normal snowfall levels. If we can get to above normal snowfall this year and next, then the 2010s will be the only decade on record with only 1 below average snowfall season. It is pretty spectacular actually. We just pretty much expect a lot of snow at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 14 hours ago, gravitylover said: Approximately the same amount of time away from the solstice since the last similar temperature. I'm not sure what the significance of that is, if any, but it occurred to me so I pointed it out. Hey, I tell ya what. This warm weather stuff is kind of nice so if you could just hold off on the cold talk some of us would appreciate it Tomorrow could be quite mild, especially if the rain departs early. Readings could surge well into the 50s with a few areas approaching or reaching 60°. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said: Exactly. I often get people asking why have we seen more substantial snowstorms if the nearby ocean is warm. I tell the the same thing, we got a lot of fuel that feeds the moisture into the system and throws it back to the coast. That is one reason I am holding out hope that we can at least approach normal snowfall levels. If we can get to above normal snowfall this year and next, then the 2010s will be the only decade on record with only 1 below average snowfall season. It is pretty spectacular actually. We just pretty much expect a lot of snow at this point. We just need a favorable weather pattern to take advantage of it. Otherwise, the SE Ridge/WAR corrects stronger as we approach storm time with amplified systems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 20 minutes ago, bluewave said: We just need a favorable weather pattern to take advantage of it. Otherwise, the SE Ridge/WAR corrects stronger as we approach storm time. On the other hand it could also prevent suppression but yeah cutters have been the biggest concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: On the other hand it could also prevent suppression but yeah cutters have been the biggest concerns. We haven’t been able to handle amped up systems with the pattern in place this winter. Notice the much warmer correction on the Friday storm than was showing up last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Euro and CFS MJO forecast look great with nice amplitude into 8 and then 1. Earthlight and others seem gungho on this upcoming pattern. This is the best looking pattern all winter with the strong epo ridge. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Euro and CFS MJO forecast look great with nice amplitude into 8 and then 1. Earthlight and others seem gungho on this upcoming pattern. This is the best looking pattern all winter with the strong epo ridge. If we don't get a least an advisory snow event out of this pattern, I give up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: We haven’t been able to handle amped up systems with the pattern in place this winter. Notice the much warmer correction on the Friday storm than was showing up last week. Yes but that's likely due to the unfavorable MJO. The MJO has mostly stayed in phases that amplified SE ridges. For those few days it was in phase 8 or 2/3, suppression happened, so hopefully we get a happy medium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 54 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yes but that's likely due to the unfavorable MJO. The MJO has mostly stayed in phases that amplified SE ridges. For those few days it was in phase 8 or 2/3, suppression happened, so hopefully we get a happy medium. Models beginning to show the forcing shifting to MJO 8-1 from the perma 4-6 so far. Very complex interaction this winter between MJO, weak El Niño, and perhaps low KB region Arctic sea ice. You can see the shifting Siberian High over the last few weeks. It’s no wonder models have been struggling so much with the long range forecasts. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 another rainstorm next week - no blocking same old pattern 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: another rainstorm next week - no blocking same old pattern It's nonsense, Gfs stalls the MJO in phase 7 too long. Anything past Day 3-5 is garbage and there's zero continuity run to run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's nonsense, Gfs stalls the MJO in phase 7 too long. Anything past Day 3-5 is garbage. how can you be certain ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 The first wave has a very good chance of doing something. I wouldn’t even worry about that 2nd system til we have a clue what that first disturbance does 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 No continuity from run to run....until it locks in on a rainy torch, then it won’t budge until it verifies even warmer. Story of the winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: The first wave has a very good chance of doing something. I wouldn’t even worry about that 2nd system til we have a clue what that first disturbance does yea that one will follow the seasonal pattern also - a dusting to an inch 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: how can you be certain ? How can you be so certain it's going to be a rainstorm next week? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's nonsense, Gfs stalls the MJO in phase 7 too long. Anything past Day 3-5 is garbage and there's zero continuity run to run. I agree. The other models bring the mjo into 8. Alot of moving parts to this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: How can you be so certain it's going to be a rainstorm next week? nothing to keep that cold high anchored in southern Canada - it moves out as that mid week storm approaches and it is able to cut into the lakes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 the 12Z Canadian is showing the same cutter next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Gfs had a blizzard on the last run and now has a rainstorm that model sucks bro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: Gfs has a blizzard on the last run and now has a rainstorm that model sucks bro explain this then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: How can you be so certain it's going to be a rainstorm next week? Persistence. Crappy seasonal pattern....I'd bet on a cutter any day. Also zero blocking.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: explain this then Zero consistency. I’m sure that’s not the final outcome give it a rest we all want us snow. Please get ur negative vibe outta here! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Para gfs transfers way further south than the op gfs. Looks like a hugger on the ncep site. 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: explain this then Explain what? This is a Miller b on every model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Zero consistency. I’m sure that’s not the final outcome give it a rest we all want us snow. Please get ur negative vibe outta here! Models will change from now until next week but they are right though. No blocking but we will have a strong negative epo . We have to see how strong it will be and where the transfer will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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