February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

[495weatherguy]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Not with those BN SSTs up and down the east coast and a very large cold source to the north. 

I'm expecting another wretched backdoor season.

That’s awful.  It’s painful to watch Central and western New Jersey enjoying sun and 70 degrees while on Long Island we sit at 42 and rain

[weatherpruf]

40 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It is when peoole are giving up in February when the pattern ahead looks better than what we are going through now.

The problem is that there isn't much "ahead" left.....and nothing has worked out so far. It would be unwise to bank on a big storm this winter. Maybe a significant one can happen. This all depends on the elusive pattern changes talked about for months now, which haven't come to fruition. Ask any mariner, a crap pattern can lock in and stay that way for a long time. Ask any captain at the shore how their season was. Not just a weekend or two, but their whole season. The truth is none of us really knows. But days and days of freak warm weather in early Feb doesn't seem to bode well, especially when prior to a week or so ago no one banked on it.

[bluewave]

It’s historic to have this type of warmth first week of February following 2 degree cold on January 31st. This was actually the 2nd warmest temperature of 68 degrees at Newark during the first week of February. The 2 degree low was the 5th coldest on record for the last week of Jaunuary.

Newark warmest 2/1-2/7 and low for 1/25-1/31

#1.....69....2008....19.....1991....69...15

#2.....68.....2019....2......1989.....31....31

#3......64......2012....33

#4......63......2006....23

Missed the daily record high by 1 degree

THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 5 2019...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1929 TO 2019


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR
                                                  NORMAL
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
 TODAY
  MAXIMUM         68    317 PM  69    1991  40     28       41

 

 

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

It’s historic to have this type of warmth first week of February following 2 degree cold on January 31st. This was actually the 3rd warmest temperature at Newark during the first week of February. The 2 degree low was the 5th coldest on record for the last week of Jaunuary.

Newark warmest 2/1-2/7 and low for 1/25-1/31

#1.....69....2008....19.....1991....69...15

#2.....68....1989.....31

#3.....67.....2019.....2

#4....64......2012....33

#5....63......2006...23

 

 

It's very Denver like for sure. Insane turnaround in less than a week.

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Worried?   Not at all.  We have had many springs recently that failed to deliver spring like weather, last year being a perfect example.  Remember, we started early this year with the November snow.   

I’m a big believer in the law of averages.   We are due a winter with minimal snow, the last few years have been brutal.  Wouldn’t mind a long spring   

Lack of snow is one thing. Freakish warmth is another. I've lived through droughts that resulted in low snow too. Lack of precip has not been the issue this year. And as for spring-like weather, after 56 years I can tell you what that is in NJ; rain, east winds, south winds, more rain, southeast winds, more rain, followed by blustery westerly winds for a day, then more rain. This goes on until mid May, when it suddenly hits the 80's and flirts with 90. And then it rains again. You can never string enough nice days together in April to do much of anything. Never could.

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s historic to have this type of warmth first week of February following 2 degree cold on January 31st. This was actually the 3rd warmest temperature at Newark during the first week of February. The 2 degree low was the 5th coldest on record for the last week of Jaunuary.

Newark warmest 2/1-2/7 and low for 1/25-1/31

#1.....69....2008....19.....1991....69...15

#2.....68....1989.....31

#3.....67.....2019.....2

#4....64......2012....33

#5....63......2006...23

 

 

All of them lame winters too, save for the 06 blizzard that delivered 2 foot in a narrow sliver; had about 18 inches out here but still better than anything in recent years IMBY and that includes last March ( Jan 2016 was great, but it was so at odds with the rest of the year it is hard to remember it fondly )

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's very Denver like for sure. Insane turnaround in less than a week.

I've heard this about Denver more than once. Is that the case even in mid winter? Or is it a late winter thing?

[495weatherguy]

5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Lack of snow is one thing. Freakish warmth is another. I've lived through droughts that resulted in low snow too. Lack of precip has not been the issue this year. And as for spring-like weather, after 56 years I can tell you what that is in NJ; rain, east winds, south winds, more rain, southeast winds, more rain, followed by blustery westerly winds for a day, then more rain. This goes on until mid May, when it suddenly hits the 80's and flirts with 90. And then it rains again. You can never string enough nice days together in April to do much of anything. Never could.

I’m not much younger than you.  I hear you so far as the weather goes.  Im just saying that a few days of anomalous warmth doesn’t concern me-were you concerned with last weeks cold?   Im guessing probably not.  It happens.  And I can remember July days fighting to crack 70.   And June days fighting to break about 50.  It happens

[495weatherguy]

4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I've heard this about Denver more than once. Is that the case even in mid winter? Or is it a late winter thing?

I was in Denver about 20 years ago-60 degrees one day, next day 2 feet of snow.   Locals said it happens alot

[Brian5671]

if we miss out on the "big pattern change" we could see a Met winter with an inch of snow for many reporting stations around here...

[495weatherguy]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

if we miss out on the "big pattern change" we could see a Met winter with an inch of snow for many reporting stations around here...

What would that do to the state of Long Range forecasting?  Would anyone take it seriously?

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

if we miss out on the "big pattern change" we could see a Met winter with an inch of snow for many reporting stations around here...

This would end up a colder version of 2001-2002

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

What would that do to the state of Long Range forecasting?  Would anyone take it seriously?

Not at all

 

[weatherpruf]

10 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

What would that do to the state of Long Range forecasting?  Would anyone take it seriously?

I don't think too many folks take it seriously right now. The only ones who seem to pore over it are weather geeks and people who make a living based on weather patterns, from traders to heating and gas people. farmers too I guess, but then they have to plant and hope for the best most of the time. Every year someone comes up to me and says he heard it was going to be a loooong cold winter, and the squirrels are gathering nuts ( which of course is what they always do, when they aren't stealing my tomatoes ) and look how fat they are! Or their dog is shedding early. Or the Farmer's Almanac says....and the Old Farmers Almanac says....and JB says ( they all have about the same accuracy ).....and then it snows in Oct or Nov and that's all she wrote....( ok extreme examples )

 

[495weatherguy]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I don't think too many folks take it seriously right now. The only ones who seem to pore over it are weather geeks and people who make a living based on weather patterns, from traders to heating and gas people. farmers too I guess, but then they have to plant and hope for the best most of the time. Every year someone comes up to me and says he heard it was going to be a loooong cold winter, and the squirrels are gathering nuts ( which of course is what they always do, when they aren't stealing my tomatoes ) and look how fat they are! Or their dog is shedding early. Or the Farmer's Almanac says....and the Old Farmers Almanac says....and JB says ( they all have about the same accuracy ).....and then it snows in Oct or Nov and that's all she wrote....( ok extreme examples )

 

Excellent points

[NYCweatherNOW]

Gfs incoming!!!!!

[bluewave]

47 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's very Denver like for sure. Insane turnaround in less than a week.

 

42 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

All of them lame winters too, save for the 06 blizzard that delivered 2 foot in a narrow sliver; had about 18 inches out here but still better than anything in recent years IMBY and that includes last March ( Jan 2016 was great, but it was so at odds with the rest of the year it is hard to remember it fondly )

I updated the post to show the 68 degree high. This is coming up at the biggest temperature rise at Newark in 128 hours. The 68 was between hours so that would make it 66 degrees from 2 to 68. 

 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Gfs incoming!!!!!

Major cave to the Euro. Hits the Mid Atalntic with some good snow.

[Gravity Wave]

Yeah the GFS is caving bigtime to the Euro for next Tuesday. No more cutter, in fact the initial wave is now too far south LOL. The coastal redevelopment is definitely something to watch for as well.

[Brian5671]

33 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I don't think too many folks take it seriously right now. The only ones who seem to pore over it are weather geeks and people who make a living based on weather patterns, from traders to heating and gas people. farmers too I guess, but then they have to plant and hope for the best most of the time. Every year someone comes up to me and says he heard it was going to be a loooong cold winter, and the squirrels are gathering nuts ( which of course is what they always do, when they aren't stealing my tomatoes ) and look how fat they are! Or their dog is shedding early. Or the Farmer's Almanac says....and the Old Farmers Almanac says....and JB says ( they all have about the same accuracy ).....and then it snows in Oct or Nov and that's all she wrote....( ok extreme examples )

 

Twitter and the internet are the worst thing that could have happened with LR forecasting-too many click baits for "memorable" winters with I-95 getting big snows and too many 93-94, 95-96, 13-14 analogs tossed around-every year has these big expectations now....

[NYCweatherNOW]

Looks good soon we’ll have to worry about suppression. I think we get hit next week big time

[NYCweatherNOW]

Setup looks like January 23rd 2016

[JustinRP37]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Not with those BN SSTs up and down the east coast and a very large cold source to the north. 

I'm expecting another wretched backdoor season.

Sea surface temps are not that below normal up and down the east coast. They have been fairly above average until the arctic blast.I

[NYCweatherNOW]

36 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Major cave to the Euro. Hits the Mid Atalntic with some good snow.

hhmmm yes mid Atlantic gets hit good but we’re not spared either. We get 30 hrs of light to moderate snow on the latest gfs. That’s not really not a hit. And temperatures are way below freezing the entire time

[TJW014]

A good sunrise to start a beautiful day, and a great sunset to end this beautiful day. High of 71

[donsutherland1]

Today, the temperature hit 65° in Central Park. That was New York City's warmest temperature since November 3, 2018. Newark's temperature topped out at 68°, making today that city's warmest day since November 2, 2018.

The SOI was +0.48 today. The SOI has fluctuated within a narrow range from -0.91 to +0.48 over the past three days.

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) continues to rise from its February 1 minimum of -3.537. Today's preliminary value was -1.091. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.432.

On February 4, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.226 (RMM). That amplitude had fallen slightly from the February 3-adjusted figure of 1.384.

In coming days, the MJO could either fall to low amplitude or return to Phase 6. Afterward, it should return to Phase 7 before making a possible slow advance toward Phase 8, which it could approach or reach within a few days of mid-month.

Phase 6 at a high amplitude and Phase 7 at low amplitude typically favor a positive AO. As a result, the AO will likely continue to rise in the coming days. There remains strong ensemble consensus for this rise and growing consensus for the AO's reaching positive values in the next few days.

There remains a possibility that a predominantly colder than normal regime could then lock in for at least a 2-3 week period, especially as the EPO is expected to go negative and Atlantic blocking (AO region) could redevelop.

Finally, the pattern could become stormy after the 10th. Details for potential storms will need to be resolved as the possible events draw closer, especially as the guidance has not fared very well in the medium- and extended-range.

[gravitylover]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today, the temperature hit 65° in Central Park. That was New York City's warmest temperature since November 3, 2018. Newark's temperature topped out at 68°, making today that city's warmest day since November 2, 2018.

.......

There remains a possibility that a predominantly colder than normal regime could then lock in for at least a 2-3 week period, especially as the EPO is expected to go negative and Atlantic blocking (AO region) could redevelop.

Finally, the pattern could become stormy after the 10th. Details for potential storms will need to be resolved as the possible events draw closer, especially as the guidance has not fared very well in the medium- and extended-range.

Approximately the same amount of time away from the solstice since the last similar temperature. I'm not sure what the significance of that is, if any, but it occurred to me so I pointed it out.

Hey, I tell ya what. This warm weather stuff is kind of nice so if you could just hold off on the cold talk some of us would appreciate it  

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

hhmmm yes mid Atlantic gets hit good but we’re not spared either. We get 30 hrs of light to moderate snow on the latest gfs. That’s not really not a hit. And temperatures are way below freezing the entire time

It isn''t going to snow for 30 hours anywhere, light or otherwise. 

[NYCweatherNOW]

3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

It isn''t going to snow for 30 hours anywhere, light or otherwise. 

U don’t know that, you’re not God. I was just stating what the model showed. 

 

And gfs para has a major snowstorm for the region.

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

U don’t know that, you’re not God. I was just stating what the model showed. 

 

And gfs para has a major snowstorm for the region.

Tell ya what, we can't get most storms to last more than a few hours. 30 hours is more than a day. It's gonna snow for 30 hours straight? No, it isn't. But I did not say that you said it would, did I? You read a model output and reported it, and I commented. Let's not read too much into it.