North and West Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 18 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Florida Mets Sweet, jealous; I'm a Mets fan, so I've always wanted to go. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 4, 2019 Author Share Posted February 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, North and West said: Sweet, jealous; I'm a Mets fan, so I've always wanted to go. sorry 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Only the 9th year on record that NYC made it to 60 degrees or warmer during the first week of February. First time ever after dropping to 2 degrees during the last week of January. The previous coldest last week of January temperature was 17 in 1988 and 1991. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=Knyc 1 1991-02-07 70 0 2 2008-02-07 68 0 - 1890-02-07 68 0 4 1989-02-07 67 0 5 2012-02-07 62 0 - 2006-02-07 62 0 - 1988-02-07 62 0 8 1916-02-07 60 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 34 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I'm going to spring training next month Lock it in, 10-20 incher incoming the first week 88 is out of town. Would be 20-30 but ‘sun angle’ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 23 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: sorry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Clouds of knats flying about near my front door. This is ridiculous. At this rate we can start thinking of Feb as a spring month. Last year it either reached or got up to 80. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 47 minutes ago, bluewave said: Only the 9th year on record that NYC made it to 60 degrees or warmer during the first week of February. First time ever after dropping to 2 degrees during the last week of January. The previous coldest last week of January temperature was 17 in 1988 and 1991. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=Knyc 1 1991-02-07 70 0 2 2008-02-07 68 0 - 1890-02-07 68 0 4 1989-02-07 67 0 5 2012-02-07 62 0 - 2006-02-07 62 0 - 1988-02-07 62 0 8 1916-02-07 60 All in the modern era except for two ( though even they are considered to be modern era using broader definitions; I know, someone will jump in to say no one kept records in the Stone Age. Save it. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: It's called pattern recognition. So what was it when we all thought mid January would be snowy for the coast or that this week was going to be cold up until a few days ago? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Just saw a yellow jacket-actually landed on my shoulder on Long Island. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: So what was it when we all thought mid January would be snowy for the coast or that this week was going to be cold up until a few days ago? The MJO ruined it. At this stage I would be utterly shocked if we aren’t below normal with decent snow chances 2/15-3/10 based on the MJO 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The MJO ruined it. At this stage I would be utterly shocked if we aren’t below normal with decent snow chances 2/15-3/10 based on the MJO But what about that tweet from Jason Furtado? The thing is I do see us getting snow but anyone saying guidance will be spot on after what we have been through this winter, I say give pause and not make definitives. At this point I’m unwilling to go much beyond a 5 day. We saw how drastically even the MJO forecast has been. What’s to say that won’t be the case again in a few days. I’m not trying to play Devil’s advocate here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 22 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: All in the modern era except for two ( though even they are considered to be modern era using broader definitions; I know, someone will jump in to say no one kept records in the Stone Age. Save it. ) This was the warmest temperature ever recorded first week of February following 2 degrees or lower last week of January. NYC 2019.....2....61 1994.....0....46 1977.....1....36 1948.....0....37 1945.....2....38 1935....-1....43 1927....-1....52 1925....-2....53 1920....-1....46 1873....-1....50 1871.....2....46 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 23 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: Just saw a yellow jacket-actually landed on my shoulder on Long Island. Big day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 I know there's a lot of snow hounds on this board, present company included, but days like today make me yearn for spring and an abrupt end to winter right now. This weather makes you feel alive again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 41 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Big day. for the yellow jacket, yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 I thought February was supposed to be rockin'? Even the conservative forecasters predicted it. This winter makes me sick. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: I know there's a lot of snow hounds on this board, present company included, but days like today make me yearn for spring and an abrupt end to winter right now. This weather makes you feel alive again. It makes you feel alive in late March or April. In early Feb it makes you wonder what is going so radically wrong. And it's not just this winter; I've seen temps into the 60's, 70's, and last 80 in midwinter for quite some time now, going back a ways.....but i don't remember seeing them in the 70's or 80's very often, if at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Just now, NutleyBlizzard said: I thought February was supposed to be rockin'? Even the conservative forecasters predicted it. This winter makes me sick. If you hate snow, it's rockin.....to a person everyone I talk to is thrilled with the lack of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: If you hate snow, it's rockin.....to a person everyone I talk to is thrilled with the lack of snow. Agreed--the last few winters have been tough--much more snow, longer lasting cold and shortened springs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 29 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: I know there's a lot of snow hounds on this board, present company included, but days like today make me yearn for spring and an abrupt end to winter right now. This weather makes you feel alive again. Given that winter is mostly dead (maybe we get a storm or two) I'd vote just to have it be warm and dry the rest of the way.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 24 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: I thought February was supposed to be rockin'? Even the conservative forecasters predicted it. This winter makes me sick. Might get a week or two back end of the month, but yep, you guessed it, just 10 days away as usual.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Might get a week or two back end of the month, but yep, you guessed it, just 10 days away as usual.... What is your prediction going forward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: What is your prediction going forward? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 On 2/3/2019 at 6:21 PM, donsutherland1 said: Readings around the New York City area surged into the 50s today. Additional springlike warmth is on tap for tomorrow. The SOI was +0.24 today. As the MJO approaches a low amplitude in Phase 7 or heads back to Phase 6, the historical data favors positive values. However, there have been some exceptions. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) continues to rise quickly from its February 1 minimum of -3.537. Today's preliminary value was -1.977. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.379. On February 2, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.272 (RMM). That amplitude had fallen from the February 1-adjusted figure of 1.547. There remains some uncertainty about the MJO's progression. However, as most of the guidance had indicated, the MJO's amplitude is now declining. There remains a distinct possibility that the MJO could fall to low amplitude or return to Phase 6 in coming days. Afterward, it should return to Phase 7. Phase 6 at a high amplitude and Phase 7 at low amplitude typically favor a positive AO. As a result, the AO will likely continue to rise in the coming days. There remains strong ensemble consensus for this rise and growing consensus for the AO's reaching positive values in about 3-7 days. Much this week will likely feature above to much above normal readings in the region. Before the week is finished, there is a possibility that the temperature could flirt with 60° in New York City. However, colder air should return during coming weekend. There remains a possibility that a predominantly colder than normal regime could then lock in for at least a 2-3 week period, especially as the EPO is expected to go negative and blocking could redevelop. Many record warm temperatures today across the Northeast with more to come, already outpaced the record cold and we have many days to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 17 minutes ago, Snow88 said: What is your prediction going forward? One storm. Late Feb/Early Mar. MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: One storm. Late Feb/Early Mar. MECS I'm thinking the same with small events before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Gfs para has a big storm for early next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 23 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: One storm. Late Feb/Early Mar. MECS One piddly event in late March, delivers 3-5 NW and a slushy coating here, followed by rainy weather in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: FWIW, this may be the first time that the EPS weeklies were the same as the CFS weeklies. Both forecasts are showing a gradual progression to colder with the MJO 8-1. Can’t post the EPS weeklies, but these CFS weeklies are the same. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg®ion=us&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2019020412&fh=168 A gradual progression is spring.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 52 minutes ago, bluewave said: FWIW, this may be the first time that the EPS weeklies were the same as the CFS weeklies. Both forecasts are showing a gradual progression to colder with the MJO 8-1. Can’t post the EPS weeklies, but these CFS weeklies are the same. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg®ion=us&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2019020412&fh=168 Weeklies are meh...shows some colder weather, but it's delayed until roughly 2/25. The week before that is average to slightly below the biggest anomolies are in the upper midewest...the best deparatures locally are in early March, but it keeps pushing out and out and not really moving up in time. Looks like a SE ridge trying to hang on too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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