MJO812 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 13 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Euro looked like crap Things were further south compared to 0z. Things will get better if the mjo is right but we know how things have went this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 the 12Z para OP does not agree with the 12Z GEPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Eps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 1 hour ago, NittanyWx said: This mid-Feb period is the narrow window I was referencing last week. Period with a true phase 8 forcing, less hostile Pac side and potential for +PNA. If we're gonna pull off a snow storm, that's your best chance for Feb. The only snowstorm in the lame winter of 95 was in Feb, I wonder if the reasons were similar. It was a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: The only snowstorm in the lame winter of 95 was in Feb, I wonder if the reasons were similar. It was a decent event. 94-95 was warmer than this year however-there was only a few weeks of true cold...but yes, one big storm that dropped 14-15 inches of heavy wet snow here-ended as some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 We had a strong El Niño back in 97-98 and we got a snowstorm back in March 23rd I think 5.5 inches in Central Park if I’m not mistaken too lazy to look it up but it was a surprise event no one knew it was coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 14 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: The only snowstorm in the lame winter of 95 was in Feb, I wonder if the reasons were similar. It was a decent event. No it was totally different. The AO was off the charts positive that winter and there was a GOA vortex I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 27 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Eps? It matches its MJO progression, so it's quite favorable after Feb 10. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 26 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Eps? stormy and generally has us on the cold side from next weekend on. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: No it was totally different. The AO was off the charts positive that winter and there was a GOA vortex I believe Ok thanks. Doesn't make any sense to me, but you're a pro and I'll go with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: We had a strong El Niño back in 97-98 and we got a snowstorm back in March 23rd I think 5.5 inches in Central Park if I’m not mistaken too lazy to look it up but it was a surprise event no one knew it was coming. That wasn't much to the west, we only got a dusting. had folks up from S America who had never seen a winter before, and it was so warm most of the time they really didn't see much. Lotta warm rain though. This year we had real cold though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 52 degrees in NYC now. Our new era of rapid and more frequent 50 degree temperature rises continues unabated. NYC 1-31-19....2 2-3-19......52 ...............+50 1-21-19.....4 1-24-19.....59 ................+55 2-17-18....28 2-21-18....78 ...............+50 1-7-18......5 1-12-18....61 ..............+56 1-9-17....14 1-12-17..66 .............+52 2-14-16....-1 2-20-16...61 ..............+62 1-5-16.....11 1-10-16...59 ..............+48 1-7-14.....4 1-11-14...58 ..............+54 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Feb 95 saw one storm with around 10 inches of snow. Ended as a bit of rain. Turned sharply colder for a week or so...and that was our winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Feb 95 saw one storm with around 10 inches of snow. Ended as a bit of rain. Turned sharply colder for a week or so...and that was our winter. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1995/04-Feb-95.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Nino ain't driving the bus here, guys. Certainly not driving my forecast right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 35 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: That wasn't much to the west, we only got a dusting. had folks up from S America who had never seen a winter before, and it was so warm most of the time they really didn't see much. Lotta warm rain though. This year we had real cold though. March 22nd 1998 It appeared this winter was going to have the least snow on record, with just 0.5" measured. Then a surprise five-inch snowfall occurred overnight and the winter of 1998 ended up as the fourth least snowy (behind the winters of 1973, 1919 and 1932). It would fall to fifth place four years later when the winter of 2002 had just 3.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 2 hours ago, NEG NAO said: the 12Z para OP does not agree with the 12Z GEPS The GEPS? Lol. It scores lower than climo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 I went with an above avg snowfall winter but when I saw the mjo initiating another wave into phase 4 a few weeks ago I knew it was trouble and we would lose a big chunk of prime climo. But I’m optimistic we get a favorable period Feb 15 into mid March. The mjo has been in the drivers seat all winter. The first wave cycled from phase 1/2 slowly and strongly through to 8 then died. The next wave went from 4 and is dying now in 7. This next wave initiated around 6/7 and heads for 8. The soi looks like it’s going negative also. Given the seasonal trend for amplified slow mjo progression we should see a favorable wave phase from about Feb 15/20 on. If the wave dies in cold phases the pattern could linger until another wave gets into warm phases. I suspect just like most of winter the guidance has underestimated the mjo impact and had to adjust causing degradation of the good long range looks this time we will see guidance trend more favorable as this shift in tropical pac forcing takes place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Readings around the New York City area surged into the 50s today. Additional springlike warmth is on tap for tomorrow. The SOI was +0.24 today. As the MJO approaches a low amplitude in Phase 7 or heads back to Phase 6, the historical data favors positive values. However, there have been some exceptions. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) continues to rise quickly from its February 1 minimum of -3.537. Today's preliminary value was -1.977. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.379. On February 2, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.272 (RMM). That amplitude had fallen from the February 1-adjusted figure of 1.547. There remains some uncertainty about the MJO's progression. However, as most of the guidance had indicated, the MJO's amplitude is now declining. There remains a distinct possibility that the MJO could fall to low amplitude or return to Phase 6 in coming days. Afterward, it should return to Phase 7. Phase 6 at a high amplitude and Phase 7 at low amplitude typically favor a positive AO. As a result, the AO will likely continue to rise in the coming days. There remains strong ensemble consensus for this rise and growing consensus for the AO's reaching positive values in about 3-7 days. Much this week will likely feature above to much above normal readings in the region. Before the week is finished, there is a possibility that the temperature could flirt with 60° in New York City. However, colder air should return during coming weekend. There remains a possibility that a predominantly colder than normal regime could then lock in for at least a 2-3 week period, especially as the EPO is expected to go negative and blocking could redevelop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 The good news is that the amplitude of the MJO going into Phase 8 looks to be much higher and slower than the past few days for Mid-February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Para needs a huge upgrade and we haven’t even switched over yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 19 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: how does it need to be upgraded ?- what do they have to change ? It has been showing alot of virtual snow this whole winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Next 8 days are averaging 42degs., or 8 degs. AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Dense fog along the South Shore. Pretty scene here in SW Suffolk with the sun through the fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 What is that feature by the Carolinas? Looks like a weak tropical storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, TriPol said: What is that feature by the Carolinas? Looks like a weak tropical storm! a vertically stacked low that took advantage of the gulf stream overnight; convection is well-removed from the center now and it will remain that way w/ all the dry air around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 28 minutes ago, TriPol said: What is that feature by the Carolinas? Looks like a weak tropical storm! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 50 minutes ago, bluewave said: Dense fog along the South Shore. Pretty scene here in SW Suffolk with the sun through the fog. Ton of frost here this morning may have been caused by some freezing fog overnight. I would have to imagine it was pretty epic out in the line barrens with KFOK In the 20s overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 8 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Ton of frost here this morning may have been caused by some freezing fog overnight. I would have to imagine it was pretty epic out in the line barrens with KFOK In the 20s overnight I had heavy frost on the colder surfaces. But the pavement was just wet with all the lingering salt. Hopefully, someone snapped some photos out around FOK. All the vegetation must have been covered in a thick blanket of frost. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=Kfok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 You know it’s a warm pattern in February when NYC reaches 50 degrees at 10 am. That is a 9 degree temperature jump in only 2 hours. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=Knyc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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