RU848789 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 13 minutes ago, David-LI said: A couple inches for the area Friday morning on the 0z NAM Yep - sign me up. Most of this also falls between 1 am and 10 am on Friday, so it has a good chance of accumulating with temps generally below 32F until at least mid-morning for most, and with most of the snow falling before the sun is too high up in the sky. Yes, sun angle is now an issue, for borderline temps and light snowfall rates (even moderate rates between 10 am and 2 pm). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Last two days of Feb. averaging 32degs., or 5degs. BN. Month to date is +1.7[36.7]. Should end month at +1.0[36.3]. All 8 days are averaging 34degs., or about 4degs. BN. EURO has lost the 8" of Snow in the next 10 days. GEFS has been unconscience all winter and never changes. Less than 1" on all outputs tonight. They go north of the City w/o phasing, due to bad TC's. Last week the joke EURO had 16" for one run here. It did these one-run-runoffs all winter. "GIVE ME SNOW---OR GIVE ME SPRING" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Light Snow 24F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 This is nice... This is nicer, but it's the FV3... And this isn't bad, although further SE would be nice for many of us - but 4+ days out, it's great to see the potential... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 SD had 12 minute litany, of Kill-Joy Facts about the next 10 days in his video today. Hard to watch if you'd like to see a snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 I am astonshed at this site. Moderate snow now 27F. Starting to stick. We keep talking about models...look outside...it is like a snow globe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: I am astonshed at this site. barely flurries in northern NYC, nothing for most of the city. in fact the sun is poking through now and then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 1 hour ago, jfklganyc said: I am astonshed at this site. Moderate snow now 27F. Starting to stick. We keep talking about models...look outside...it is like a snow globe! There is an obs thread, scroll down. Most places havent seen more than a flizzard yet. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 This February has one of the most extreme temperature departure dipoles between Alaska and Montana. Bethel, Alaska is at a +18.1 departure for the month. Great Falls, Montana has a -27.8 temperature departure for February so far. https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls/status/1100781181921038336 In addition to being a lock for 2nd coldest February here in #GreatFalls, Feb 2019 will have the 2nd most days with a high of 0F or colder. https://mobile.twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1100586710503587845 The extreme event continues to unfold from the Bering Sea (Alaska) into the #Arctic over the next week. Temperatures will rise to more than 20°C above average with further sea ice retreat expected 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.20°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.70°C for the week centered around February 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. Similar ENSO conditions will likely persist through much of March with some possible fluctuations to just below weak El Niño levels. Some guidance suggests the potential for further warming of ENSO Region 3.4 in coming weeks. The SOI was -10.52 today. The 30-day SOI average is -13.34. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.656. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is +0.114. It is now all but certain that the AO will finish with a positive value for meteorological winter. Therefore, given the latest ensemble forecast, the AO is all but certain to finish with a positive average for winter 2018-19. Further, consistent with cases where the AO peaked at +3.000 or above during the February 20-28 period, the AO will remain predominantly positive through March 1-15. This historic experience has strong support from the latest ensembles. On February 26, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.053 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat lower than the February 25-adjusted figure of 2.159. Over the next 2 days, the MJO will likely move into Phase 2. Afterward, it could move into Phase 3 near the start of the second week of March. The SOI remains at negative levels. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. As a result, precipitation will likely be above to much above normal in both the Southwestern United States (including California) and Southeastern United States. Based on historic data following similar ENSO conditions to those of February 2019, March 1-15 could provide perhaps the final window of opportunity for a moderate or perhaps significant snowstorm in the New York City area. That the MJO will likely enter March at a high amplitude is consistent with a colder start to the month. Due to shorter wave lengths, the state of the AO has little impact on the probability of such storms. Taking into consideration current ENSO conditions (which are consistent with a reduced frequency of 6" or greater snowstorms during the first half of March in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas) and the forecast MJO over through the first week of March, one should wait for good run-to-run continuity and strong model consensus before embracing high-impact snow scenarios for the Philadelphia-Boston region that may appear from time to time on the guidance. Even as a moderate or significant snowfall remains possible, confidence in such an outcome could be fairly low until the event is 48-96 hours away. Afterward, sustained warming could limit opportunities for snowfall. The potential for widespread high temperatures in the upper 40s into southern New England and 50s in portions of the Middle Atlantic region near mid-month exists. The odds of such warming would be particularly high should the PDO be negative, as has been the case in both December and January. Meanwhile, a clipper-type system will likely bring a generally light to moderate snowfall to the northern Middle Atlantic region tonight into tomorrow. A coating is possible in New York City and nearby northern suburbs, while 1"-3" could accumulate well to the north of the City, including such locations as Danbury, Hartford, and Poughkeepsie. The Boston area should pick up 2"-4" snow with some potential for higher amounts should ocean enhancement occur. Another system could bring parts of the area, especially south of New York City, additional precipitation, including snow, very late Friday night into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Last day of Feb. averaging 35degs., or 2degs. BN. Month to date is +1.3[36.4]. Should end Feb. at +1.2[36.5]. All 8 days are averaging 33degs., or 5degs. BN. Car tops white, beach white and that's it. 30* here at 6am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 A pretty, powdery INCH. Take what you can get this year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Dusting in Huntington Station 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 This winter continued the 2010’s theme of having the warmest temperature departures in December and February. NYC Year.......Dec...Jan...Feb 09-10....-1.6...-0.1...-2.2 10-11....-4.7...-2.9...+0.7 11-12...+5.8...+4.7..+5.6 12-13...+4.0...+2.5...-1.4 13-14...+1.0...-4.0....-3.7 14-15..+3.0....-2.7...-11.4. 15-16..+13.3..+1.9...+2.4 16-17...+0.8...+5.4....+6.3 17-18...-2.5.....-0.9.....+6.7 18-19...+2.4.....-0.1....+1.3...1 day to go Dec...7+...3- Jan....6-....4+ Feb...6+....4- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Much tamer winter in terms of postive departures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 35 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Much tamer winter in terms of postive departures Yet overall warmer than last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 28, 2019 Author Share Posted February 28, 2019 13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yet overall warmer than last winter. Basically the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saberonyx Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 We had a half inch of light snow this is 6am in the morning cleaning the backyard of my school in Ozone Park Queens New York Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Had a surprise dusting this morning. Gone by 10 am, but unexpected. A bit icy out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Feb. 2019 will end up averaging 36.2...there was 2.6" of snow and 3.14" of precipitation...max was 65 and the minimum was 11... Feb. decade averages... decade..ave.t...high....low.....ave max/min...max....min....snowfall...big snow...precipitation... 1870's....30.6....37.0....25.2.........................69......-1........9.3"......11.0"......2.71" 1880's....30.5....37.2....22.7....55.2......4.5....69......-4........7.9"........9.0"......4.07" 1890's....31.9....37.9....24.1....54.6......6.2....68......-6......10.1"......16.0"......3.65" 1900's....29.4....37.7....24.8....52.2......6.8....62.......1........9.3"......11.0"......3.54" 1910's....30.4....35.9....25.4....55.5......4.8....62......-6........7.5"........9.7"......3.44" 1920's....32.1....37.9....26.2....54.3......8.7....64......-2......12.2"......17.5"......4.32" 1930's....32.5....37.0....19.9....58.7......7.8....75.....-15.......7.6"......10.0"......3.13" 1940's....32.6....38.6....29.3....58.1......9.7....73......-8........8.9"......10.7"......2.53" 1950's....35.1....40.1....27.4....58.5....10.1....71.......0........4.0"........7.9"......2.73" 1960's....32.6....36.7....28.3....56.1......8.4....65......-2......10.1"......17.4"......3.31" 1970's....32.6....39.9....25.5....58.7......8.6....70.......0........9.9"......17.7"......3.69" 1980's....35.4....40.6....31.4....60.9....13.0....75.......4........5.4"......17.6"......3.08" 1990's....36.3....40.6....30.6....62.5....11.0....72.......5........8.7"......12.8"......2.99" 2000's....35.2....40.6....28.2....59.7....13.8....68.......8......10.1"......26.9"......2.64" 2010's....35.7....42.0....23.9....60.3....12.4....78......-1......11.8"......20.9"......3.92"... 1870- 2019......32.9...………...…….....57.5......9.0...……..……........8.9"...………..........3.32"... 1990- 2019......35.7...…...………….....60.8....12.4...…...……...……10.2"...…….……......3.18".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Feb. ended at +0.9[36.2]. DJF ended at +1.4[36.3] Most predicted -1.0, with above normal Snowfall. A sd unit is 2.4*. I think anyone who called for a Normal winter with a positive T bias gets partial credit, or more, if they got their reasoning right too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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