Brasiluvsnow Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 9 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Do you see a snow event before 10th? There seems to be forum consensus that post 10th will be warm. You did not ask me but FWIW the models do have a weak wave for Wednesday / Thursday this week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: I don’t think you have to worry about that this time, the usual March -NAO isn’t even happening this year. The ensembles have a very strong +NAM (+NAO, +AO) developing around March 6th in addition to -PNA and the -EPO breaking down and going positive, very positive actually. It looks torchy starting March 9th and beyond Maybe, but why would anyone trust any long range trends, warmer or colder, beyond ten days this season considering how abysmal they've been since December? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 41 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Maybe, but why would anyone trust any long range trends, warmer or colder, beyond ten days this season considering how abysmal they've been since December? Historic data for similar basin-wide ENSO conditions shows just such a tendency around mid-March +/- a few days. The warming is even more pronounced when the PDO is negative. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 The models are still showing a very cold pattern starting March 3rd that lasts several days. So again I don't think it's time to completely give up yet, even though right now things favor cold/dry. It's far enough into the future that the models could be missing something. Get several days of well below normal temps in early March and you at least have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 10 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: The models are still showing a very cold pattern starting March 3rd that lasts several days. So again I don't think it's time to completely give up yet, even though right now things favor cold/dry. It's far enough into the future that the models could be missing something. Get several days of well below normal temps in early March and you at least have a chance. That’s a window of opportunity. We’ll see whether it is realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 2 hours ago, jfklganyc said: Do you see a snow event before 10th? There seems to be forum consensus that post 10th will be warm. Unusually strong signals for warmth starting March 9th onward with the tropical convective forcing propagation. March, 2012 warmth? No, but definitely well above normal. As far as snow before the 10th? The setup is not good IMO. No -NAO or -AO, very fast flow, -PNA. If something does pop up, it’s very likely to be minor and not a coastal storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Pattern remains the same as it has since December, one of the most persistent unfavorable patterns in many years. It was well forecasted by some in December after the November snow and the SSW which sent the cold to the other side of the globe and helped reinforce the unfavorable MJO / strong pac jet couplet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Euro and Euro mean has 1-2 inches for the area for Thursday morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Basin-wide neutral-warm ENSO conditions persist. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.60°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.60°C for the week centered around February 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. Basin-wide, neutral-warm/very weak El Niño conditions are not conducive for large snowstorms in northern Mid-Atlantic cities including New York and Philadelphia during February. Conditions can be somewhat more favorable during the first half of March. Such ENSO conditions will likely persist into at least the first half of March with some possible fluctuations to levels consistent with weak El Niño events. The warm SSTAs will likely remain basin-wide. The SOI was -9.85 today. That ended the stretch of 13 consecutive days during which the SOI was -10.00 or below. The last time the SOI was at or below -10.00 for at least 13 consecutive days was February 13-March 3, 2016 when the SOI was at -10.00 or below for 20 consecutive days. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.537. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is +0.056. Should the AO average -1.192 for the remainder of February, it would finish with a meteorological winter average +0.001. Therefore, given the latest ensemble forecast, the AO will very likely finish with a positive average for winter 2018-19. Further, consistent with cases where the AO peaked at +3.000 or above during the February 20-28 period, the odds of a return to negative AO values is low. Almost half of such cases actually had no AO- readings through March 15. On February 23, the MJO moved into Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.173 (RMM). The amplitude was little changed from the February 22-adjusted figure of 2.162. The SOI remains at negative levels. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. As a result, precipitation will likely be above to much above normal in both the Southwestern United States (including California) and Southeastern United States. As a powerful storm moves across southern Canada, winds will likely gust past 50 mph tonight and tomorrow. Some areas could experience gusts in excess of 60 mph. Based on historic data following similar ENSO conditions to those of February 2019, March 1-15 could provide perhaps the final window of opportunity for a moderate or significant snowstorm in the New York City area. That the MJO will likely enter March at a high amplitude is consistent with a colder start to the month. Due to shorter wave lengths, the state of the AO has little impact on the probability of such storms. Afterward, pronounced warming could limit opportunities for snowfall. The odds of such warming would be particularly high should the PDO be negative, as has been the case in both December and January. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 5 hours ago, Snow88 said: Euro and Euro mean has 1-2 inches for the area for Thursday morning I think it’s too far south with that event 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Both gfs shifted slightly south for the midweek clipper Pattern looks active for the next 2 weeks. Let's hope we cash in. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 5 hours ago, Snow88 said: Both gfs shifted slightly south for the midweek clipper Pattern looks active for the next 2 weeks. Let's hope we cash in. Looks like we have until March 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Looks like we have until March 10 1. Honestly, in a normal March, you dont get much more than that anyway. 2. LR has been so off this year, if the 10th became the 5th or 15th or if there was blizzard during our AN period, It wouldnt surprise me. A week ago you wouldnt have put money on an LR...dont bet the house because the calendar turned to March. 3. That wind was particularly loud and fierce last night. Built into the side of a ridge off the Saw Mill river...I was awoken several times 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: 1. Honestly, in a normal March, you dont get much more than that anyway. 2. LR has been so off this year, if the 10th became the 5th or 15th or if there was blizzard during our AN period, It wouldnt surprise me. A week ago you wouldnt have put money on an LR...dont bet the house because the calendar turned to March. 3. That wind was particularly loud and fierce last night. Built into the side of a ridge off the Saw Mill river...I was awoken several times Looks like it will be windy all day today, tonight and even tomorrow! And we might get a repeat of this next weekend. I wonder if the winds will be this strong again? Also, I cant remember the last time I saw such a large area under High Wind Warnings! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Fv3 is now 3-5" for Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Old GFS, is 1-4" more the further North and east you go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Remainder of Feb. averaging 33degs., or 3 degs. BN. ClimoSummary site not updating for two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 The mean Central Park temperature through 2/24 is 37.0°, which is approximately 2.1° above normal. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 1 hour ago, jfklganyc said: 1. Honestly, in a normal March, you dont get much more than that anyway. 2. LR has been so off this year, if the 10th became the 5th or 15th or if there was blizzard during our AN period, It wouldnt surprise me. A week ago you wouldnt have put money on an LR...dont bet the house because the calendar turned to March. 3. That wind was particularly loud and fierce last night. Built into the side of a ridge off the Saw Mill river...I was awoken several times March 15th is pretty much the cut off in any year for anyone south of central/northern New England. By the 15th, you are really fighting climo, sun angle and length of day at our latitude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said: Fv3 is now 3-5" for Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Old GFS, is 1-4" more the further North and east you go. Both have shifted south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: March 15th is pretty much the cut off in any year for anyone south of central/northern New England. By the 15th, you are really fighting climo, sun angle and length of day at our latitude. South of Central/Northern New England? That would eliminate the entire MHV and LHV and Catskills. I've lived here most of my life and that simply is not true. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: March 15th is pretty much the cut off in any year for anyone south of central/northern New England. By the 15th, you are really fighting climo, sun angle and length of day at our latitude. Check last March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Check last March Completely different, rare situation, that’s not happening this time. As a general rule it’s over for the NYC metro come 3/15 minus a rare setup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Just now, snowman19 said: Completely different situation, that’s not happening this time. The last 4 years here's the snowfall in NYC from March 1 on. 2015 - 18.6 inches 2016 - 0.9 2017 - 9.7 2018 - 17.1 And of course that's the warm spot in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: The last 4 years here's the snowfall in NYC from March 1 on. 2015 - 18.6 inches 2016 - 0.9 2017 - 9.7 2018 - 17.1 And of course that's the warm spot in our area. I’m talking March 15th on. Not pre March 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I’m talking March 15th on. Not pre March 15th It will snow in late March early April if the pattern is right. The sun angle is bullshit if the snow is light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Both have shifted south Did the 6z EURO look good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Last measurable snowfall stats for JFK since 1990 Minimum 02-11 (2012) 10-29 (2011) 218 Mean 03-21 12-10 263 Maximum 04-15 (2014) 01-19 (2007) 298 2018 04-02 (2018) 3.7 11-15 (2018) 4.8 226 2017 03-14 (2017) 5.1 12-09 (2017) 3.4 269 2016 03-21 (2016) 0.4 12-11 (2016) 0.3 264 2015 03-20 (2015) 3.0 12-28 (2015) 0.1 282 2014 04-15 (2014) 0.1 11-26 (2014) 0.1 224 2013 03-18 (2013) 1.4 11-12 (2013) 0.2 238 2012 02-11 (2012) 0.3 11-07 (2012) 4.0 269 2011 03-24 (2011) 0.4 10-29 (2011) 1.5 218 2010 02-27 (2010) 0.1 12-13 (2010) 0.2 288 2009 03-20 (2009) 0.1 12-05 (2009) 0.1 259 2008 02-22 (2008) 6.9 12-06 (2008) 0.6 287 2007 03-16 (2007) 2.7 12-02 (2007) 0.9 260 2006 04-05 (2006) 1.0 01-19 (2007) 0.4 288 2005 03-24 (2005) 0.3 12-04 (2005) 3.2 254 2004 03-19 (2004) 1.5 12-19 (2004) 0.4 274 2003 04-07 (2003) 5.4 12-02 (2003) 0.1 238 2002 03-18 (2002) 0.1 11-27 (2002) 0.3 253 2001 03-26 (2001) 1.7 01-07 (2002) 0.4 286 2000 04-09 (2000) 1.5 12-20 (2000) 0.6 254 1999 03-15 (1999) 2.3 12-22 (1999) 0.1 281 1998 03-22 (1998) 2.9 12-23 (1998) 1.1 275 1997 04-01 (1997) 1.5 12-12 (1997) 0.1 254 1996 04-10 (1996) 0.9 01-02 (1997) 0.1 266 1995 02-27 (1995) 0.1 11-29 (1995) 2.6 274 1994 03-18 (1994) 2.2 01-11 (1995) 0.1 298 1993 03-21 (1993) 0.8 12-11 (1993) 3.3 264 1992 03-22 (1992) 3.7 12-12 (1992) 0.8 264 1991 03-30 (1991) 0.1 12-05 (1991) 0.4 249 1990 04-07 (1990) 0.5 12-27 (1990) 0.5 263 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Did the 6z EURO look good? Went slightly more north. Looks good for CT northward. Nam shifted south. Light snow from NYC north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: It will snow in late March early April if the pattern is right. The sun angle is bullshit if the snow is light. The sun angle is not bs. It does affect snowfall and snow cover in a big way. You can have tempers below freezing in early April, yet the snowpack can sublimate much more easily. Sure you can get a lot of accumulations, but if those storms happened during the solar minimal period of the year, you would have much great impact. By the time you get to April, it really has to snow hard to get it to stick to dark surfaces. It does not mean it cannot accumulate though. If the storm was even overnight, all the better, but it will still melt quickly. So yes it can snow in March, April, and even May if the pattern is right, but sun angle does affect it big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 7 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: The sun angle is not bs. It does affect snowfall and snow cover in a big way. You can have tempers below freezing in early April, yet the snowpack can sublimate much more easily. Sure you can get a lot of accumulations, but if those storms happened during the solar minimal period of the year, you would have much great impact. By the time you get to April, it really has to snow hard to get it to stick to dark surfaces. It does not mean it cannot accumulate though. If the storm was even overnight, all the better, but it will still melt quickly. So yes it can snow in March, April, and even May if the pattern is right, but sun angle does affect it big time. i am sure the people in alaska will disagree... 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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