February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

[RU848789]

We don't have to have a great "pattern" to get a significant snowstorm, even in March.  Just makes it a bit more likely.  

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, White Gorilla said:

Hasn't the Pacific jet been on steroids more often than not in recent years? 

This has been the worst DJF configuration of the North Pacific Jet for us since the 11-12 winter. December 2015 was pretty extreme with the super El Niño and +13 temperature departure. But since it was a STJ, the blocking in January forced it to the south and we got our historic blizzard. The ridge staying stuck north of Hawaii this winter just kept it flowing too far to the north below Alaska. It overpowered the weaker STJ causing those suppressed snowstorms to our south. The northern stream has been going non stop with all the huggers and cutters. 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

This narrative of the coastal plains historic period for significant snows ending this weekend is not really based in fact. If you consider a 6 plus inch snowfall significant historically there have been 54 such events in NYC (the heat island) from February 20th through the end of the season. Granted this is going back 150 years but that still averages out to approx. 1 event every 3 years. If you want to make the cutoff March 11 that would go more inline with historical fact. Of course 3 of the last 4 winters in NYC March has been the snowiest month and I'd place even money on this March making it 4 of the last 5.

NYC 6+ inch Snows - 10 day periods
1..... Nov-11-Nov-20
4..... Nov-21-Nov-30
6..... Dec-01-Dec-10
13.... Dec-11-Dec-20
18.... Dec-21-Dec-30
12.... Dec-31-Jan-09
15.... Jan-10-Jan-19
20.... Jan-20-Jan-29
25.... Jan-30-Feb-08
25.... Feb-09-Feb-18
16.... Feb-19-Feb-28
18.... Feb-29-Mar-10
11.... Mar-11-Mar-20
2..... Mar-21-Mar-30
6..... Mar-31-Apr-09
1..... Apr-10-Apr-19

193.. Nov-15-Apr-13

We were talking about 10+ inch snowstorms.  6+ inch snowstorms can reasonably occur in March and even into early April.  I actually like when they happen in April more than March because in April they're more memorable.

Getting a 10" storm is very difficult after the end of February.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

This has been the worst DJF configuration of the North Pacific Jet for us since the 11-12 winter. December 2015 was pretty extreme with the super El Niño and +13 temperature departure. But since it was a STJ, the blocking in January forced it to the south and we got our historic blizzard. The ridge staying stuck north of Hawaii this winter just kept it flowing too far to the north below Alaska. It overpowered the weaker STJ causing those suppressed snowstorms to our south. The northern stream has been going non stop with all the huggers and cutters. 

So we know this is what was going on in the 80s.  I see some have said we were just "unlucky" because average temperatures were cold enough for it to snow and we were above average with precip.  I dont buy that.  Average monthly temps only have a weak connection to snowfall.  We get an event perhaps once a week, if it's cold the other 6 days and because of the pattern the storms track too far west for snow, it'll warm up on the day of the storm.  Average monthly temps don't account for storm tracks because storms only occur on one or two days per week.  You dont need it to be very cold to snow anyway, you just want it to be cold enough to maximize moisture content and so we dont get too much to create a suppressed pattern, the pattern is more closely connected to snowfall, not average temps.  During the 80s we were about 5 degrees colder than this on average and we got much less snowfall- our Januarys averaged in the mid 20s.  It didn't help us with snowfall.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

 

What a horrible stretch that was.

Dec 2011, 6 degrees above normal, Jan 2012 5 degrees above, Feb 201 6 degrees above, March 2012, 10 above, April 2012 4 above, May 2012 4 above.

I may have nightmares tonight.

I think cold dry days followed by cutters and huggers is actually far far worse.  In 2011-12 we at least were able to save on heating costs.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, romba said:

Yankees???

Not yet- they haven't won a division in a few years.  Or gone to the World Series in a decade.

[Eduardo]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

This has been the worst DJF configuration of the North Pacific Jet for us since the 11-12 winter. December 2015 was pretty extreme with the super El Niño and +13 temperature departure. But since it was a STJ, the blocking in January forced it to the south and we got our historic blizzard. The ridge staying stuck north of Hawaii this winter just kept it flowing too far to the north below Alaska. It overpowered the weaker STJ causing those suppressed snowstorms to our south. The northern stream has been going non stop with all the huggers and cutters. 

Probably one of the most succinct "diagnoses" I've seen thus far, Chris.  The relentless, raging PAC jet reminds me of 11-12 as well.  I figured that the LR models eventually might be correct in their repeated insistence that the jet would subside given the different ENSO landscape this year.  But clearly that has not at all come to pass and winter now seems all but over before it ever really got going. 

For now though, I am at a loss as to why the PAC pattern this year was so Niña-esque.  Seems like, since the last "Super Niño," the PAC does not conform to ENSO-based expectations.....

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Eduardo said:

Probably one of the most succinct "diagnoses" I've seen thus far, Chris.  The relentless, raging PAC jet reminds me of 11-12 as well.  I figured that the LR models eventually might be correct in their repeated insistence that the jet would subside given the different ENSO landscape this year.  But clearly that has not at all come to pass and winter now seems all but over before it ever really got going. 

For now though, I am at a loss as to why the PAC pattern this year was so Niña-esque.  Seems like, since the last "Super Niño," the PAC does not conform to ENSO-based expectations.....

We've had several La Ninas that were much better than this.  What this year did is combine the worst aspects of both.  

[RU848789]

On 2/21/2019 at 2:34 PM, weatherpruf said:

You should try being a US men’s soccer fan. The Rutgers men’s soccer team was once very good. But theUS men, ugh. Losses to Trinidad,Panama, Honduras, Costa Rica, and struggles against Antigua and Barbados over the years. They did beat Spain once a decade ago, and beat Brazil once, 20 years ago....gotta say I’m not so loyal they are hard to watch.

I am a USMNT fan and have been since the late 80s.  Used to go to occasional RU soccer matches, also, especially when Lalas was roaming the box and putting in headers.  Lost the NCAA final to UCLA on PKs (worst OT in all of sports) in 1990.  Also go to occasional women's games and play every Sunday for 2 hours with a bunch of middle aged guys.  

[bluewave]

55 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

So we know this is what was going on in the 80s.  I see some have said we were just "unlucky" because average temperatures were cold enough for it to snow and we were above average with precip.  I dont buy that.  Average monthly temps only have a weak connection to snowfall.  We get an event perhaps once a week, if it's cold the other 6 days and because of the pattern the storms track too far west for snow, it'll warm up on the day of the storm.  Average monthly temps don't account for storm tracks because storms only occur on one or two days per week.  You dont need it to be very cold to snow anyway, you just want it to be cold enough to maximize moisture content and so we dont get too much to create a suppressed pattern, the pattern is more closely connected to snowfall, not average temps.  During the 80s we were about 5 degrees colder than this on average and we got much less snowfall- our Januarys averaged in the mid 20s.  It didn't help us with snowfall.

 

 

Yeah, we had much more snow during several milder and similar temperature winters during this decade. While 2012 was a milder DJF, we had a similar amount of snowfall for this DJF. Very little you can do with an unfavorable Pacific pressure and jet pattern. Even if it was a colder winter than 2012.

NYC DJF snowfall

2018-2019	3.6	8
2017-2018	23.8	0
2016-2017	20.5	0
2015-2016	31.9	0
2014-2015	31.5	0
2013-2014	57.3	0
2012-2013	14.1	0
2011-2012	4.5	0
2010-2011	60.9	0
2009-2010	51.4	0

NYC DJF average temperature

2018-2019	36.4	7
2017-2018	36.2	0
2016-2017	39.3	0
2015-2016	41.0	0
2014-2015	31.4	0
2013-2014	32.9	0
2012-2013	36.8	0
2011-2012	40.5	0
2010-2011	32.8	0
2009-2010	33.8	0

 

 

[Stormlover74]

Lots of high wind watches up to our West. Wonder if Upton and mt holly will go with them or not

[IrishRob17]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Lots of high wind watches up to our West. Wonder if Upton and mt holly will go with them or not

The discussion mentioned advisories 

[donsutherland1]

Basin-wide neutral-warm ENSO conditions persist. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.60°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.60°C for the week centered around February 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. Basin-wide, neutral-warm/very weak El Niño conditions are not conducive for large snowstorms in northern Mid-Atlantic cities including New York and Philadelphia during February. Conditions can be somewhat more favorable during the first half of March.

Such ENSO conditions will likely persist into at least the first half of March with some possible fluctuations to levels consistent with weak El Niño events.

The SOI was -19.36 today. That is the 12th consecutive day during which the SOI was -10.00 or below. The last time the SOI was at or below -10.00 for at least 12 consecutive days was April 12-23, 2016.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.869. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is +0.018. Should the AO average -0.232 for the remainder of February, it would finish with a meteorological winter average +0.001.

On February 21, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.096 (RMM). The amplitude was slightly lower than the February 20-adjusted figure of 2.152. The MJO could spend an extended duration in Phase 8 before moving slowly into Phase 1 during the closing week of February. Late February high amplitude MJO Phase 8 cases have not always led to a snowy March. March 1978 saw 6.8" snow fall in New York City. March 1988 saw no measurable snowfall in New York City.

The SOI remains at very negative levels. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. As a result, precipitation will likely be above to much above normal in both the Southwestern United States (including California) and Southeastern United States. The ongoing snowstorm had dumped 40.1" snow at Flagstaff as of 11 am MST.

Farther east, a storm could bring moderate to potentially heavy rainfall to parts of the East this weekend. That storm will very likely be followed by strong winds that could gust past 40 mph over a large part of the region. Afterward, the pattern could evolve toward a colder one. Unlike with February when neutral-warm to very weak El Niño conditions are not conducive to significant snows in the Middle Atlantic region, the frequency of such snowfalls during such ENSO conditions increases in March courtesy of shortening wave lengths. Since 1950, 43% of New York City's 6" or greater snowstorms during March 1-15 occurred with an AO+/PNA- pattern and 27% occurred with an AO-/PNA+ pattern.

Based on historic data following similar ENSO conditions to those of February 2019, March 1-15 could provide perhaps the final window of opportunity for a moderate or significant snowstorm in the New York City area. Afterward, pronounced warming could limit opportunities for snowfall. The odds of such warming would be particularly high should the PDO be negative.

[Rtd208]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Lots of high wind watches up to our West. Wonder if Upton and mt holly will go with them or not

There will be a period of heavy rain tomorrow night thru the first half of Sunday which will produce around 1.0"-1.5" of rainfall. Winds increase Sunday afternoon/evening with the highest winds expected on Monday which could reach High Wind Warning criteria.

55 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

The discussion mentioned advisories 

Actually the discussion from Mt.Holly mentions Wind Advisory criteria for later Sunday/Sunday night but High Wind Warning criteria possible on Monday. At the very least advisories are likely.

[SnoSki14]

8 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

DST starts on 3/10 so let's torch away and forget this disaster of a winter...

I can't wait to move past this. Just a couple more weeks to go. 

 

7 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

 

What a horrible stretch that was.

Dec 2011, 6 degrees above normal, Jan 2012 5 degrees above, Feb 201 6 degrees above, March 2012, 10 above, April 2012 4 above, May 2012 4 above.

I may have nightmares tonight.

But at least everyone knew it would suck and the warmth was really nice that winter. This winter has been pure torture, nothing but one big tease that led to nothing. 

December & January were barely AN with well AN precip and all we got were dustings. 

We have nowhere to go but up after this season. 

8 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

The models are showing the very cold pattern coming in March 3rd. There might be a brief warmup for the 1st/2nd before the cold really comes in.

 

Anyway I agree the pattern doesn't look great for snow depite the cold, but if you get an entire week of well below average temps in early March you have a shot. It's certainly possible to get some moisture in here during a cold week, even if it isn't a big storm. Hopefully the models pick up on something when it gets closer.

The early March cold will be nothing more than a nuisance, which doesn't surprise me anymore. I hope we can get some nice days after the 10th but I fear the Pacific jet will keep things very rainy. 

[nzucker]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we had much more snow during several milder and similar temperature winters during this decade. While 2012 was a milder DJF, we had a similar amount of snowfall for this DJF. Very little you can do with an unfavorable Pacific pressure and jet pattern. Even if it was a colder winter than 2012.

NYC DJF snowfall

2018-2019	3.6	8
2017-2018	23.8	0
2016-2017	20.5	0
2015-2016	31.9	0
2014-2015	31.5	0
2013-2014	57.3	0
2012-2013	14.1	0
2011-2012	4.5	0
2010-2011	60.9	0
2009-2010	51.4	0

NYC DJF average temperature

2018-2019	36.4	7
2017-2018	36.2	0
2016-2017	39.3	0
2015-2016	41.0	0
2014-2015	31.4	0
2013-2014	32.9	0
2012-2013	36.8	0
2011-2012	40.5	0
2010-2011	32.8	0
2009-2010	33.8	0

 

 

Amazing to see how much more snow some of the significantly warmer winters had: 16-17 had 20.5" at 39.3F (3F warmer than this year) and 15-16 had 31.9F at 41.0F (nearly 5F warmer than this year). Not that it's been a cold winter....we'll probably finish DJF around +1.5F, but it shows that temperatures weren't the driver of the low snowfall. 

[Rtd208]

High Wind Watch issued here from Sunday evening thru Monday afternoon for wind gusts up to 55 mph possible.

[CIK62]

Remainder of Feb. averaging 38degs., or 2degs. AN.

Month to date is +2.2[36.8].    Should end Feb. at +2.1[37.4].

 

[MJO812]

Nothing exciting on the models at all. Looks like the good pattern that people thought that was coming is going to fail.

 

Hopefully things change but this winter has been awful with tons of busts.

 

Bring on baseball. First game is today =)

[tomcatct]

31 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Nothing exciting on the models at all. Looks like the good pattern that people thought that was coming is going to fail.

 

Hopefully things change but this winter has been awful with tons of busts.

 

Bring on baseball. First game is today =)

Yep..the last thing anyone wants is a cold and rainy April and may..bring on some nice weather if real snow is off the table

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, Eduardo said:

Probably one of the most succinct "diagnoses" I've seen thus far, Chris.  The relentless, raging PAC jet reminds me of 11-12 as well.  I figured that the LR models eventually might be correct in their repeated insistence that the jet would subside given the different ENSO landscape this year.  But clearly that has not at all come to pass and winter now seems all but over before it ever really got going. 

For now though, I am at a loss as to why the PAC pattern this year was so Niña-esque.  Seems like, since the last "Super Niño," the PAC does not conform to ENSO-based expectations.....

Everybody will be asking those questions after this winter. This has to be one of the most La Niña-like 500 mb and temperature departure distribution patterns ever during an El Niño. Strong ridge north of Hawaii with fast Pacific Jet are features of some of least favorable La Niña years like 07-08 and 11-12. The early clue was the record breaking SOI rise from the fall into the early winter.

 

[MJO812]

This winter was forecasted to be a very good winter for our area. Many forecasts had a cold and snowy winter with 30-40 inches of snow. 

No one saw the Pacific and the MJO messing up this winter. 

The NAO was no help at all.

This is going to be one of the worst winters ever here. 2001-2002 still holds the crown.

[CIK62]

The anticipated, more El Nino like coupled pattern, is just 'old wine---new bottles'.

Just like calling NAFTA "USMCA" or whatever non-changes emerge from the China Trade negotiations---US taxpayers will pay more for less.

Buy your suntan lotion while it is still relatively cheap and stop talking about snowstorms till and if one is 48hrs. away on all models.

[Rtd208]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Everybody will be asking those questions after this winter. This has to be one of the most La Niña-like 500 mb and temperature departure distribution patterns ever during an El Niño. Strong ridge north of Hawaii with fast Pacific Jet are features of some of least favorable La Niña years like 07-08 and 11-12. The early clue was the record breaking SOI rise from the fall into the early winter.

 

 

7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

This winter was forecasted to be a very good winter for our area. Many forecasts had a cold and snowy winter with 30-40 inches of snow. 

No one saw the Pacific and the MJO messing up this winter. 

The NAO was no help at all.

This is going to be one of the worst winters ever here. 2001-2002 still holds the crown.

This also shows how much more we need to learn when it comes to seasonal forecasting. I had two trains of thought when we had the snowstorm back on November 15th, I said to myself either we have one heck of a winter ahead us with the earlier start or are we going to blow the entire winter on an early snowstorm and that will be it. I honestly thought this would have been a 50"+ winter for the NYC metro area but obviously not the case. I know there is no clear evidence of this but I will say it again I am a big fan of significant/major snowfalls in December which IMO usually leads to a good winter for our area more times then not. 

[Brian5671]

53 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Nothing exciting on the models at all. Looks like the good pattern that people thought that was coming is going to fail.

 

Hopefully things change but this winter has been awful with tons of busts.

 

Bring on baseball. First game is today =)

What?  You said it was coming and that the guys in the NE thread promised....

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

 

This also shows how much more we need to learn when it comes to seasonal forecasting. I had two trains of thought when we had the snowstorm back on November 15th, I said to myself either we have one heck of a winter ahead us with the earlier start or are we going to blow the entire winter on an early snowstorm and that will be it. I honestly thought this would have been a 50"+ winter for the NYC metro area but obviously not the case. I know there is no clear evidence of this but I will say it again I am a big fan of significant/major snowfalls in December which IMO usually leads to a good winter for our area more times then not. 

I thought we were going to have a good winter with the November snowfall since everyone was on the good winter train since the EL Nino was weak.

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

What?  You said it was coming and that the guys in the NE thread promised....

Dude the pattern looked good. Stop trolling for once. The models keep showing a good pattern until we get closer.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Nothing exciting on the models at all. Looks like the good pattern that people thought that was coming is going to fail.

 

Hopefully things change but this winter has been awful with tons of busts.

 

Bring on baseball. First game is today =)

The 1st week of March looks less and less impressive for cold and it always looked like a dud for snow. The fat lady is walking up on stage and clearing her vocal cords right now

[MJO812]

Just now, snowman19 said:

The 1st week of March looks less and less impressive for cold and it always looked like a dud for snow. The fat lady is walking up on stage and clearing her vocal cords right now

Agree

The models are losing the PNA ridge and the epo ridge.

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

 

This also shows how much more we need to learn when it comes to seasonal forecasting. I had two trains of thought when we had the snowstorm back on November 15th, I said to myself either we have one heck of a winter ahead us with the earlier start or are we going to blow the entire winter on an early snowstorm and that will be it. I honestly thought this would have been a 50"+ winter for the NYC metro area but obviously not the case. I know there is no clear evidence of this but I will say it again I am a big fan of significant/major snowfalls in December which IMO usually leads to a good winter for our area more times then not. 

The pattern that lead to the record warmth in the Western Pacific last fall may turn out to be a piece of the puzzle.

https://alaskapacificblob.wordpress.com/2018/11/06/record-north-pacific-warmth/

The difference in the spatial distribution of warm anomalies is quite evident when we compare the subsurface temperature anomalies at 0-100m depth from October 2015 and October 2018; see the figures below.  Based on NOAA’s GODAS data from last month, the most anomalous warmth is now actually in the northwestern, rather than the northeastern, North Pacific, and this contrasts strongly with the situation at the end of the 2013-2015 “blob” regime.

So to summarize, we’ve seen a dramatic return to the positive NPM phase in recent months, but so far the pattern of unusual warmth is not particularly “blob”-like, and in fact the subsurface data points to the northwestern North Pacific as the focus of the current “marine heatwave”.

And one more piece of analysis to conclude and to illustrate just how unusual the current situation is: based on NOAA’s GODAS data, the upper 100m of the North Pacific Ocean north of 40°N is now warmer (relative to normal) than at any time in the modern data record (1980-present).

[Brian5671]

40 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I thought we were going to have a good winter with the November snowfall since everyone was on the good winter train since the EL Nino was weak.

Dude the pattern looked good. Stop trolling for once. The models keep showing a good pattern until we get closer.

LOL-that's the hallmark sign of a dud....