February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

[BombsAway1288]

11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The pattern has been awful all winter.   That's a factor.  The EPS has also been awful.    Any other questions?

It's been a frustrating winter for the East Coast outside the mountains, I know it's annoying to keep seeing "good patterns" in the long-range but seeing a beast show up like that inside of D10 is one of the more encouraging things I've seen all winter, even if it is one run so far. Usually with the big coastal's we'll see them pop up on runs about now if they're going to happen. It's encouraging in many ways is all I'm trying to say.

If these threats in the next two weeks don't pan out though, I'd say it's time to move on to Spring. We'll see.

[Brian5671]

Just now, BombsAway1288 said:

It's been a frustrating winter for the East Coast outside the mountains, I know it's annoying to keep seeing "good patterns" in the long-range but seeing a beast show up like that inside of D10 is one of the more encouraging things I've seen all winter, even if it is one run so far. Usually with the big coastal's we'll see them pop up on runs about now if they're going to happen. It's encouraging in many ways is all I'm trying to say.

If these threats in the next two weeks don't pan out though, I'd say it's time to move on to Spring. We'll see.

That's a fair point...

[BombsAway1288]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

That's a fair point...

Now we just need to see the next 3 or 4 model cycle runs on the globals to keep showing it at the very least. If it starts heading to pop up over Detroit or Bermuda by Thursday, then I give up lol

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Now we just need to see the next 3 or 4 model cycle runs on the globals to keep showing it at the very least. If it starts heading to pop up over Detroit or Bermuda by Thursday, then I give up lol

Most of our best storms the last few years have been sniffed out in the long range only to be lost and then resurface. So I would expect the same here (if it’s a go)

[Rtd208]

 

[bluewave]

Another new and impressive weather record for the 2010’s.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/weather/2019/02/19/flight-reaches-mph-furious-jet-stream-packs-record-breaking-speeds/?noredirect=on&__twitter_impression=true

The jet stream, the high-altitude air current along which storms travel, is furious. The river of air was clocked at more than 230 mph over Long Island on Monday. That measure comes from the 250 millibar pressure level, meaning it was at a height above 75 percent of the atmosphere’s mass. It sets the record for the fastest 250 millibar wind speed ever recorded over New York and, probably, the country.

A Virgin Atlantic flight from Los Angeles to London peaked at a whopping 801 mph Monday evening 35,000 feet over Pennsylvania. “[N]ever ever seen this kind of tailwind in my life as a commercial pilot,” tweeted Peter James, a jet captain.

 

[donsutherland1]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

So you agree with my idea that we have a 50/50 chance of getting to 20" snowfall by the end of the season, Don? ;-)

Our first goal should be to get to double digit snowfall by the end of February.  How far do NYC, LGA, JFK have to go to achieve that?

 

It’s still doable.

[CIK62]

Euro is 16"{975mb BM storm} for the 27th.  Previous run was 3".   Hey, that 16" is exactly what we need to make DJF look normal at 24/25". The GEFS knows nothing about it.

I was reporting these two buffoon outputs daily---till the start of Feb.     GEFS has actually cut its16-day snows in half, in the last four runs.     It really should have been looking like it does now, the whole winter!

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Another new and impressive weather record for the 2010’s.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/weather/2019/02/19/flight-reaches-mph-furious-jet-stream-packs-record-breaking-speeds/?noredirect=on&__twitter_impression=true

The jet stream, the high-altitude air current along which storms travel, is furious. The river of air was clocked at more than 230 mph over Long Island on Monday. That measure comes from the 250 millibar pressure level, meaning it was at a height above 75 percent of the atmosphere’s mass. It sets the record for the fastest 250 millibar wind speed ever recorded over New York and, probably, the country.

A Virgin Atlantic flight from Los Angeles to London peaked at a whopping 801 mph Monday evening 35,000 feet over Pennsylvania. “[N]ever ever seen this kind of tailwind in my life as a commercial pilot,” tweeted Peter James, a jet captain.

 

801!! In a conventional airliner no less... 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said:

It's been a frustrating winter for the East Coast outside the mountains, I know it's annoying to keep seeing "good patterns" in the long-range but seeing a beast show up like that inside of D10 is one of the more encouraging things I've seen all winter, even if it is one run so far. Usually with the big coastal's we'll see them pop up on runs about now if they're going to happen. It's encouraging in many ways is all I'm trying to say.

If these threats in the next two weeks don't pan out though, I'd say it's time to move on to Spring. We'll see.

It's always a good winter somewhere; this year, after a slow start, it's been the Midwest and central and northern New England and of course out West.  I wouldn't say the mountains in the NE at our latitude have had a great winter- the Poconos have been below average too.  The big news this year is Seattle finally has had a month of winter weather like they haven't seen since the 60s.

 

[LibertyBell]

49 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

801!! In a conventional airliner no less... 

lol that's higher than the speed of sound- which is 640 mph through "regular" air at average air pressure, I think?

 

[donsutherland1]

Basin-wide neutral-warm ENSO conditions persist. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.60°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.60°C for the week centered around February 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. Basin-wide, neutral-warm/very weak El Niño conditions are not conducive for large snowstorms in northern Mid-Atlantic cities including New York and Philadelphia during February.

Such ENSO conditions will likely persist through February with some possible fluctuations to levels consistent with weak El Niño events. Under such a scenario, the probability of a significant snowfall (6" or more) will be well below climatology for the northern Mid-Atlantic region.

The SOI was -43.61 today. That's the lowest figure since the SOI was at -51.97 on February 18, 2017. That's also the ninth consecutive day during which the SOI was -10.00 or below. The last time the SOI was at or below -10.00 for at least nine consecutive days was February 1-9, 2018.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.481. That is highest AO reading since March 14, 2017 when the AO was +3.548. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.074. Should the AO average +0.675 for the remainder of February, it would finish with a meteorological winter average +0.001.

Based on historic experience (1950-2018) when the AO reached +3.000 or above during the February 1-15 period, the AO will likely remain predominantly positive through most of the second half of February. The probability of the AO's reaching negative levels during the last week of February has declined.

On February 18, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.554 (RMM). The amplitude was little changed from the February 17-adjusted figure of 1.523. The MJO could spend an extended duration in Phase 8.

The combination of a neutral-warm ENSO and a powerful polar vortex responsible for the strongly positive AO remain the dominant factors driving the pattern evolution. They will likely continue to predominate over the next week. As a result, MJO convection will have little meaningful impact on the larger pattern during that time.

The SOI remains at very negative levels. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. As a result, precipitation will likely be above to much above normal in both the Southwestern United States (including California) and Southeastern United States.

There could be several opportunities for snowfall in the East in coming days, the first of which is tonight into tomorrow. However, the probability of significant snowfall events (6" or more) is well below climatology (but not zero) for the Middle Atlantic region. Central/Upstate New York across central and northern New England have a greater probability of seeing significant snow events.

Given this context, the probabilities remain weighted against a large-scale snowstorm The next storm could bring a moderate snowfall (a general 3"-6") to an area focused on Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Washington on Wednesday into Thursday, but lesser snowfall from New York City into southern New England (probably 1"-3" in such cities as Bridgeport, Islip, New York City, and Newark) with lesser amounts up the Hudson Valley.

Based on historic data following similar ENSO conditions to those of February 2019, March 1-15 could provide perhaps the final window of opportunity for a moderate or significant snowstorm in the New York City area. Afterward, pronounced warming could limit opportunities for snowfall.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

Basin-wide neutral-warm ENSO conditions persist. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.60°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.60°C for the week centered around February 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. Basin-wide, neutral-warm/very weak El Niño conditions are not conducive for large snowstorms in northern Mid-Atlantic cities including New York and Philadelphia during February.

Such ENSO conditions will likely persist through February with some possible fluctuations to levels consistent with weak El Niño events. Under such a scenario, the probability of a significant snowfall (6" or more) will be well below climatology for the northern Mid-Atlantic region.

The SOI was -43.61 today. That's the lowest figure since the SOI was at -51.97 on February 18, 2017. That's also the ninth consecutive day during which the SOI was -10.00 or below. The last time the SOI was at or below -10.00 for at least nine consecutive days was February 1-9, 2018.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.481. That is highest AO reading since March 14, 2017 when the AO was +3.548. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.074. Should the AO average +0.675 for the remainder of February, it would finish with a meteorological winter average +0.001.

Based on historic experience (1950-2018) when the AO reached +3.000 or above during the February 1-15 period, the AO will likely remain predominantly positive through most of the second half of February. The probability of the AO's reaching negative levels during the last week of February has declined.

On February 18, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.554 (RMM). The amplitude was little changed from the February 17-adjusted figure of 1.523. The MJO could spend an extended duration in Phase 8.

The combination of a neutral-warm ENSO and a powerful polar vortex responsible for the strongly positive AO remain the dominant factors driving the pattern evolution. They will likely continue to predominate over the next week. As a result, MJO convection will have little meaningful impact on the larger pattern during that time.

The SOI remains at very negative levels. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. As a result, precipitation will likely be above to much above normal in both the Southwestern United States (including California) and Southeastern United States.

There could be several opportunities for snowfall in the East in coming days, the first of which is tonight into tomorrow. However, the probability of significant snowfall events (6" or more) is well below climatology (but not zero) for the Middle Atlantic region. Central/Upstate New York across central and northern New England have a greater probability of seeing significant snow events.

Given this context, the probabilities remain weighted against a large-scale snowstorm The next storm could bring a moderate snowfall (a general 3"-6") to an area focused on Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Washington on Wednesday into Thursday, but lesser snowfall from New York City into southern New England (probably 1"-3" in such cities as Bridgeport, Islip, New York City, and Newark) with lesser amounts up the Hudson Valley.

Based on historic data following similar ENSO conditions to those of February 2019, March 1-15 could provide perhaps the final window of opportunity for a moderate or significant snowstorm in the New York City area. Afterward, pronounced warming could limit opportunities for snowfall.

Thanks Don, so we wont see any kind of late rebirth of the snow season like we saw last year in late March and early April?

Also what you said here-

 Basin-wide, neutral-warm/very weak El Niño conditions are not conducive for large snowstorms in northern Mid-Atlantic cities including New York and Philadelphia during February.

Do you also believe the chances of a double digit NYC snowfall markedly decrease after the end of February?  Do you think it's more likely we wont see a double digit snowfall this season and that the November 15 event will end up being our largest snowfall this season?

 

[etudiant]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

lol that's higher than the speed of sound- which is 640 mph through "regular" air at average air pressure, I think?

Sure is, so as the plane max speed is about 0.85 times the speed of sound, it underlines how strong the tail wind was to get over 800 miles per hour ground speed.

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

 

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, etudiant said:

Sure is, so as the plane max speed is about 0.85 times the speed of sound, it underlines how strong the tail wind was to get over 800 miles per hour ground speed.

 

a little faster than that and residents at ground level might have heard sonic booms!

 

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 41degs., or 5degs. AN.

Month to date is +2.3[36.8].       Should be +3.1[38.0] by the 28th.

As I predicted, the buffoon Euro went from 16" to 2" in one run for the 27th.    GEFS still has its hands in its pocket, playing with something.

[donsutherland1]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Don, so we wont see any kind of late rebirth of the snow season like we saw last year in late March and early April?

Also what you said here-

 Basin-wide, neutral-warm/very weak El Niño conditions are not conducive for large snowstorms in northern Mid-Atlantic cities including New York and Philadelphia during February.

Do you also believe the chances of a double digit NYC snowfall markedly decrease after the end of February?  Do you think it's more likely we wont see a double digit snowfall this season and that the November 15 event will end up being our largest snowfall this season?

 

If NYC has had no double-digit snowfall through February, the odds become increasingly low afterward. The last 10" or greater snowfall in March was the 1993 superstorm when NYC picked up 10.6".  There have been 8" or greater snowfalls in 2009 (8.3") and 2018 (8.4"). The window may close after the 15th and possibly even a little earlier if some of the extended guidance is correct.

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

If NYC has had no double-digit snowfall through February, the odds become increasingly low afterward. The last 10" or greater snowfall in March was the 1993 superstorm when NYC picked up 10.6".  There have been 8" or greater snowfalls in 2009 (8.3") and 2018 (8.4"). The window may close after the 15th and possibly even a little earlier if some of the extended guidance is correct.

And yet people here will argue incessantly before every March storm that it could easily be 12-18 inches.....and I get pilloried for pointing out what you just wrote.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

9 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

And yet people here will argue incessantly before every March storm that it could easily be 12-18 inches.....and I get pilloried for pointing out what you just wrote.

When you look at the small area of Central Park and forget about the 50 mile or so radius around it that this sub forum entails than yes it's true there have been no double digit snowfalls after February 28 since the March 1993 storm. Yet Central Park had 8.4 inches on the first day of spring last year, damn close and 21 days after March first.

I live 40 miles due north of Central Park and just in the last 6 years alone I've had three storms between 16-24 inches in March. March 7-8 2013 16.1 inches, March 14, 2017 20.8 inches, and March 7, 2018 24.2 inches. Expand the horizon a few miles past Central Park and 12-18 inch storm in this area in March are pretty common. And yes I say that knowing you live in a snow hole in Colonia but this too may change for you someday.

[MJO812]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Cold ending to February and beginning of March. Not much warmth anywhere in the US with such a strong -EPO block developing near Alaska. The big question for the spring fans is how long will this colder regime last?

 

 

With the SOI dropping , this might hurt an early spring.

[SnoSki14]

55 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Cold ending to February and beginning of March. Not much warmth anywhere in the US with such a strong -EPO block developing near Alaska. The big question for the spring fans is how long will this colder regime last?

Some resistance to the cold on the coast courtesy of WAR/SE ridging. 

It could also be where the storminess sets up. 

[CIK62]

Are we still (NYC) in the running for fewest days in a season with at least 1" of snow or more, on the ground?   Maybe two days in Nov. and one this month.    1972-73 probably wins here, not sure though.  Comments.

Thank You   MV.

[Mitchel Volk]

1973 no days of snow cover

[uncle W]

9 minutes ago, Mitchel Volk said:

1973 no days of snow cover

it did at the end of January for two days...one day in Feb...

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-5B1B69F4-34BE-4F57-9CB0-2DBAA86806B1.pdf

[uncle W]

I hope this storm turns out as good as Feb. 21, 1993...4" of snow before it ended as rain...

 

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I hope this storm turns out as good as Feb. 21, 1993...4" of snow before it ended as rain...

 

I remember that I was coming back from the Catskills that day.  I think it was under forecast slightly 

[uncle W]

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Are we still (NYC) in the running for fewest days in a season with at least 1" of snow or more, on the ground?   Maybe two days in Nov. and one this month.    1972-73 probably wins here, not sure though.  Comments.

Thank You   MV.

fewest days with at least one inch on the ground or accumulated that day...1/2 inch is rounded up to one inch...

2018-19.....6 so far...

2011-12.....5

1997-98.....2

2001-02.....3

1972-73.....3

[weatherlogix]

18 minutes ago, uncle W said:

fewest days with at least one inch on the ground or accumulated that day...1/2 inch is rounded up to one inch...

2018-19.....6 so far...

2011-12.....5

1997-98.....2

2001-02.....3

1972-73.....3

If we remove the November snowfall, what does 2018-2019 look like?

[uncle W]

1 minute ago, weatherlogix said:

If we remove the November snowfall, what does 2018-2019 look like?

three days since Dec. 1st...

[uncle W]

here is the list I compiled for NYC snow depth days...a trace could be leftover snow on the ground or a lonely snowflake during a day...if there was an inch of snow but it melted before the depth obs it counts as one day...

season........Days ...............consecutive days....Max depth..
...................T 1" 4" 10"20"........ T 1" 4" 10"20"

1913-14......57 32 22 06 0....... 34 30 14 04 0..... 13"
1917-18......84 57 29 00 0....... 68 30 16 00 0..... 09"
1919-20......92 67 36 02 0....... 61 55 28 02 0..... 12"
1922-23......71 54 22 00 0....... 24 19 06 00 0..... 08"
1925-26......65 33 16 06 2....... 30 23 15 05 2..... 20"
1933-34......71 47 28 06 0....... 32 16 12 04 0..... 13"
1940-41......56 27 08 01 0....... 14 12 04 02 0..... 13"
1947-48......83 65 54 33 5....... 65 58 53 16 5..... 26"
1948-49......50 30 17 03 0....... 11 10 10 03 0..... 14"
1949-50......29 09 00 00 0....... 03 03 00 00 0..... 03"

1950-51......45 13 00 00 0....... 16 04 00 00 0..... 03"
1951-52......40 14 02 00 0....... 06 04 01 00 0..... 06"
1952-53......38 08 01 00 0....... 07 03 01 00 0..... 04"
1953-54......32 14 10 00 0....... 16 11 10 00 0..... 09"
1954-55......35 13 00 00 0....... 06 04 00 00 0..... 03"
1955-56......51 20 08 02 0....... 11 08 07 02 0..... 13"
1956-57......52 18 04 00 0....... 11 06 02 00 0..... 06"
1957-58......69 37 17 01 0....... 23 09 06 01 0..... 10"
1958-59......45 19 01 00 0....... 12 10 01 00 0..... 05"
1959-60......61 27 10 06 0....... 13 09 06 04 0..... 15"

1960-61......77 52 41 20 3....... 38 32 30 10 3..... 24"
1961-62......59 26 04 00 0....... 17 10 03 00 0..... 06"
1962-63......62 23 07 00 0....... 13 11 07 00 0..... 04"
1963-64......76 42 21 05 0....... 27 14 08 05 0..... 13"
1964-65......58 31 06 00 0....... 28 13 03 00 0..... 06"
1965-66......38 23 09 00 0....... 24 19 07 00 0..... 07"
1966-67......64 34 16 05 0....... 16 10 08 05 0..... 13"
1967-68......44 23 01 00 0....... 15 15 01 00 0..... 06"
1968-69......55 33 20 08 0....... 32 24 17 07 0..... 15"
1969-70......71 47 08 00 0....... 39 35 04 00 0..... 06"

1970-71......58 11 03 00 0....... 20 04 03 00 0..... 06"
1971-72......60 21 06 00 0....... 12 08 03 00 0..... 05"
1972-73......30 03 00 00 0....... 03 02 00 00 0..... 02"
1973-74......57 38 07 00 0....... 20 17 07 00 0..... 06"
1974-75......35 10 03 00 0....... 06 05 03 00 0..... 08"
1975-76......41 27 03 00 0....... 12 08 02 00 0..... 04"
1976-77......69 47 09 00 0....... 53 37 07 00 0..... 06"
1977-78......94 56 30 12 0....... 67 35 20 06 0..... 18"
1978-79......42 23 09 03 0....... 18 17 04 03 0..... 16"
1979-80......36 10 01 00 0....... 07 03 01 00 0..... 04"

1980-81......49 27 05 00 0....... 25 21 03 00 0..... 08"
1981-82......48 24 12 01 0....... 17 17 08 01 0..... 10"
1982-83......34 22 10 06 0....... 18 16 09 06 0..... 19"
1983-84......54 28 12 00 0....... 17 16 06 00 0..... 07"
1984-85......44 25 10 00 0....... 31 13 09 00 0..... 07"
1985-86......41 15 08 00 0....... 14 12 06 00 0..... 06"
1986-87......49 31 12 00 0....... 19 17 11 00 0..... 09"
1987-88......49 31 10 00 0....... 18 16 09 00 0..... 09"
1988-89......23 07 02 00 0....... 04 03 02 00 0..... 05"
1989-90......46 16 02 00 0....... 06 04 02 00 0..... 05"

1990-91......27 13 06 00 0....... 04 04 02 00 0..... 08" Feb. LGA obs...
1991-92......36 11 02 00 0....... 07 04 02 00 0..... 06"
1992-93......49 21 06 01 0....... 10 09 05 01 0..... 10"
1993-94......95 74 31 08 3....... 76 40 13 08 3..... 22"
1994-95......33 15 12 01 0....... 16 15 12 01 0..... 10"
1995-96......72 55 35 14 6....... 18 17 12 10 6..... 25" LGA obs...
1996-97......35 08 00 00 0....... 04 02 00 00 0..... 03" LGA obs...
1997-98......27 02 01 00 0....... 03 02 01 00 0..... 04" LGA obs...
1998-99......29 10 01 00 0....... 04 03 01 00 0..... 04" LGA obs...
1999-00......40 23 08 00 0....... 24 19 05 00 0..... 06" LGA obs...

2000-01......57 33 17 02 0....... 18 16 11 02 0..... 13" LGA obs...
2001-02......22 03 00 00 0....... 04 03 00 00 0..... 03" LGA obs...
2002-03......71 42 23 05 1....... 26 25 12 05 1..... 20" LGA obs...
2003-04......50 36 20 02 0....... 28 25 08 01 0..... 11" LGA obs...
2004-05......59 41 20 02 0....... 22 16 13 02 0..... 10" LGA obs...
2005-06......32 19 06 03 1....... 12 12 05 04 1..... 16" LGA obs...
2006-07......31 15 02 00 0....... 07 05 02 00 0..... 05"
2007-08......30 08 04 00 0....... 04 04 04 00 0..... 06"
2008-09......47 32 07 00 0....... 06 06 03 00 0..... 08"
2009-10......45 29 23 08 1....... 15 12 11 04 1..... 21"

2010-11......69 58 45 23 3....... 54 54 27 16 2..... 23"
2011-12......14 05 01 00 0....... 03 03 01 00 0......04"
2012-13......38 15 08 02 0....... 07 05 05 02 0......10"

2013-14......80 64 45 16 0....... 49 49 33 14 0......18"

2014-15......69 57 48 19 0....... 50 50 46 17 0......19" 

2015-16......32 12 09 04 2....... 12 10 09 04 2......22"

2016-17......37 24 09 00 0....... 11 06 04 00 0......09".....

2017-18......52 26 13 01 0....... 13 08 07 01 0......10"