LibertyBell Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Question, did we have something like this in the 50s also, during that decade March was our snowiest month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/17/2019 at 1:37 PM, donsutherland1 said: I’m thinking NYC, EWR, and PHL will probably finish with 15”-25” seasonal snowfall. The neutral-warm ENSO conditions that have persisted for the last five weeks have largely capped the potential. In some ways, 2018-2019 may wind up having been a “near miss” from a 2001-02 type of winter. So you agree with my idea that we have a 50/50 chance of getting to 20" snowfall by the end of the season, Don? ;-) Our first goal should be to get to double digit snowfall by the end of February. How far do NYC, LGA, JFK have to go to achieve that? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: It seems to me that we've seen a persistent area of blocking that's been migrating. Remember what preceded this we had the strong Kara block in 2016 I believe and before that we had the strong EPO block. Like you said earlier, persistent anomalies like these seem to be a new feature of our climate, I wonder what will dislodge this? Likely something momentous that will create a persistent block elsewhere? Persistent blocking could be the reason for these big SOI drops that show the result of sustained warming of the central and eastern Pacific. Did you see this bar graph? It could some new seasonal response in the Pacific to the overall pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/17/2019 at 2:24 PM, CPcantmeasuresnow said: You do have to look at recent history and March has been the snowiest month in NYC in 3 of the last 4 winters. Of course that doesn't mean this March will produce and with 8.7 inches right now in Central Park, it would have to be a heck of a March to get to the 29 year average (Jan 1991- Jan 2019) which currently stands at 30.7 inches per season. However I could see this March being the snowiest of the season for the 4th time in 5 years. The bar is pretty low, it only has to beat the 6.4 inches from November. March being the snowiest month has also been a characteristic of mild winters- in the 50s, March was the snowiest month too. But I dont know what actually qualifies as snowy, did you know that we've not seen a double digit snowfall after the end of February here since March 1993- and that was the only one and even that changed to rain. So I would expect minor to moderate events, 4-8 inches, rather than some double digit HECS. You can get the 4-8 inchers in April too, and as a matter of fact, those are more memorable than March events. After the end of February, while not extremely rare, getting a 6 incher is a nice achievement. I'd be shocked if we got a 10+ incher . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: It could some new seasonal response in the Pacific to the overall pattern. Can any of this be connected to ice melt in the Arctic? Remember our posts in the CC forum last fall about how late the minimum was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Can any of this be connected to ice melt in the Arctic? Remember our posts in the CC forum last fall about how late the minimum was? It’s possible. This recent paper is an interesting read. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2018GL077325 Plain Language Summary The effect of projected Arctic sea ice loss on the global climate system is investigated using a state-of-the-art coupled climate model. This study shows that the tropics respond to the ice loss within two to three decades via dynamical ocean processes and air-sea interaction. This tropical response in turn modifies the atmospheric circulation and precipitation responses over the North Pacific. This fast response indicates that ocean dynamics needs to be represented for an accurate picture of the global impact of Arctic sea ice loss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 4 hours ago, bluewave said: The only 2 months in 2018 that the record breaking WAR/SE Ridge relaxed were March and November. Be interesting to see if this March follows that pattern or we get a rebound in the SE Ridge by mid or late March. This the 3rd February in a row with a SOI drop from January. 2017 1.3 -2.2 2018 8.9 -6.0 I think we'll be good through March 10 and warm afterwards but I suppose it could last longer too. EPS MJO looks to also be following a similar path to last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Euro has a major snowstorm day 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Euro has a major snowstorm day 9 Like a complete turnaround for the season "major"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, CarLover014 said: Like a complete turnaround for the season "major"? Yes. 2 plus feet in our area. But obviously it’s day 8 so it’s fantasy until proven otherwise 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 We can dream. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, dmillz25 said: Yes. 2 plus feet in our area. But obviously it’s day 8 so it’s fantasy until proven otherwise Where do you see 2 plus feet for next Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Yes. 2 plus feet in our area. But obviously it’s day 8 so it’s fantasy until proven otherwise We've been through this. Such storms are so rare in March as to make discussing them a waste of time; in the outer areas yes, but not near the city itself. Impossible? No. Likely? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Yes. 2 plus feet in our area. But obviously it’s day 8 so it’s fantasy until proven otherwise 2 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Where do you see 2 plus feet for next Wednesday? Oh, the good ole reliable Kuchera 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: We've been through this. Such storms are so rare in March as to make discussing them a waste of time; in the outer areas yes, but not near the city itself. Impossible? No. Likely? No. It's actually Feb 27-28 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It's actually Feb 27-28 8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It's actually Feb 27-28 Never mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 35 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro has a major snowstorm day 9 There one run, gone the next ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, RDRY said: There one run, gone the next ... The EPS has a strong signal for it as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 35 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Oh, the good ole reliable Kuchera You know DT and Maue are gonna tweet that out if they haven't already, and then all you'll hear tomorrow morning in the deli is about the two feet of snow we're supposed to get next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/18/2019 at 8:38 AM, LibertyBell said: Yes, I was confused because the radar showed sleet and freezing rain creeping up the Jersey Coast while it was still snowing elsewhere and it actually changed over while this area was still supposedly "snowing" according to the radar. It's interesting how in previous seasons this kind of storm would have hung on to being snow longer but in this season the changeovers have been happening much more quickly. Related to the very warm air that's been in the South this month and the strong SE Ridge? Could look at it as a result of the PNA, but yeah, that was largely the source of the warm air aloft. The western trough also helped steer it our way. Low level cold held due to the position and strength of the Quebec high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Euro has a major snowstorm day 9 FANTASY RANGE and more virtual snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 hour ago, weatherpruf said: We've been through this. Such storms are so rare in March as to make discussing them a waste of time; in the outer areas yes, but not near the city itself. Impossible? No. Likely? No. Gfs is similiar for the 1st week of March. Who cares if it's a waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 31 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: FANTASY RANGE and more virtual snow.... Do you even look at the pattern or just post what you want to post? Eps is also going wild with the pattern. Fits the favorable MJO and ALL. PNA also looks favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Do you even look at the pattern or just post what you want to post? Eps is also going wild with the pattern. Fits the favorable MJO and ALL. PNA also looks favorable The pattern has been awful all winter. That's a factor. The EPS has also been awful. Any other questions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: The pattern has been awful all winter. That's a factor. The EPS has also been awful. Any other questions? LOL So both the gefs and eps are wrong ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: LOL So both the gefs and eps are wrong ? didn't say that. Just said that based on the season to date I would not get my hopes up too high for a day 8 system. You've been barking cold/snow for 3 months and it's yet to show (1-2 inches on 2 storms hardly counts) Heck Feb is on track to finish +3 which would put the met winter at +2.6, -.1 and +3.0. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, Brian5671 said: didn't say that. Just said that based on the season to date I would not get my hopes up too high for a day 8 system. You've been barking cold/snow for 3 months and it's yet to show (1-2 inches on 2 storms hardly counts) I agree Based off the models this looks like the best potential with a few things in our favor. Just potential right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: The pattern has been awful all winter. That's a factor. The EPS has also been awful. Any other questions? The EPS sucked all winter, the weeklies also sucked all winter. The GEFS flip flopped like a fish out of water in the long range all winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, snowman19 said: The EPS sucked all winter, the weeklies also sucked all winter. The GEFS flip flopped like a fish out of water in the long range all winter Weeklies have been atrocious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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