February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

[gravitylover]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It depends on which region you're in.  What made it really good is that it had something for everyone   In March I only got significant snow in the last event and the one in early April.  So 3 events, 15 inches in the January storm with 6 straight hours of blizzard conditions and around 8 inches in the late March event and 6 inches in the early April event.  That January event for me was by far the best storm I've seen since Jan 2016.  Which I think you missed out on also

 

 

Yep. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, gravitylover said:

Yep. 

We need more 95-96 and 02-03 type winters even if not that extreme, at least with events that dont have a sharp cut off in our region like we have had recently.

 

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, nzucker said:

Well that's another feature of the changing climate that will be growing more severe in coming decades. Bigger storms but less snowpack. The record Feb 2006 and Jan 2016 storms were both gone in under a week...

This isnt talked about enough!

 

I have had more days of snow cover this winter than 15-16.

Too many guys get distracted by total amounts. If you like cold weather this winter was actually better than the last two. Just never worked out for snow.

 

[HeadInTheClouds]

55 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

This isnt talked about enough!

 

I have had more days of snow cover this winter than 15-16.

Too many guys get distracted by total amounts. If you like cold weather this winter was actually better than the last two. Just never worked out for snow.

 

Very true. 15-16 was a disaster IMBY north of 84. This winter has had a decent amount of days with snow cover and I'm sitting at 28 inches for the season so far. 

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

This isnt talked about enough!

 

I have had more days of snow cover this winter than 15-16.

Too many guys get distracted by total amounts. If you like cold weather this winter was actually better than the last two. Just never worked out for snow.

 

I think the cold last year was more impressive. I hit mid teens below 0 a couple of times and didn't get anywhere near that this year. Daytime cold was also more significant. I also had more snow in the first 6 weeks of winter last year than nearly 3 months of winter this year. If you include November I still have 8" less than I did by mid January last year.

21 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Very true. 15-16 was a disaster IMBY north of 84. This winter has had a decent amount of days with snow cover and I'm sitting at 28 inches for the season so far. 

You have a full foot more than I do so far this year.

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You guys avoided the NYC Metro winter snow hole.

 

 

That map is trying to show a high spot in my area but misses by about 10 miles. Not bad on the fringe microclimates overall though.

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

you need a really strong el nino to be in the bullseye- just like I do.  SW Nassau County climatology is similar to central coastal NJ climatology.

I'm not really considered coastal; no one here would remotely consider it as such. We are on the Arthur Kill though. And it was a beach resort in the 19 century. So sometimes when the coast does well we don't; and when inland does well we don't. I'd say urban island effect, but there's plenty of storms where Manhattan does better than us.

[495weatherguy]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

EPS continuing with the idea of a -EPO block near the beginning of March. A piece of the SE Ridge/WAR is still trying to hang on. 

 

Can the SE Ridge reload?  In time for summer?

[psv88]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wow really? You had significant snow in March outside of the big storm at the end of the month?

 

32” in March 2018

[Brian5671]

EPS has been horrid this winter....as well as the Euro weeklies-I wouldn't buy anything they are putting out-can't handle the pattern this go around...

[Brian5671]

8 hours ago, Snow88 said:

March is too late ? 

it will be this year-nothing has gone right-you expect it to magically correct in March?  LOL

[Dan76]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

it will be this year-nothing has gone right-you expect it to magically correct in March?  LOL

What about April forget about March.

[EasternLI]

22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

EPS has been horrid this winter....as well as the Euro weeklies-I wouldn't buy anything they are putting out-can't handle the pattern this go around...

Today's edition is advertising a warm up mid March when the EPO flips positive. Along with a +AO and +NAO. Hope it's right with that. Seems to want to reload the EPO going into April though. Hope that's wrong. I'm ready for some warmer weather. 

[donsutherland1]

In the wake of the most recent storm, Boston's seasonal snowfall has increased to 8.2". That figure remains far below normal for this point in the season.

Basin-wide neutral-warm ENSO conditions persist. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.60°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.60°C for the week centered around February 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. Basin-wide, neutral-warm/very weak El Niño conditions are not conducive for large snowstorms in northern Mid-Atlantic cities including New York and Philadelphia during February.

Such ENSO conditions will likely persist through February with some possible fluctuations to levels consistent with weak El Niño events. Under such a scenario, the probability of a significant snowfall (6" or more) will be well below climatology for the northern Mid-Atlantic region.

The SOI was -35.88 today. That's the lowest figure since the SOI was at -40.30 on February 18, 2017. That's also the eighth consecutive day during which the SOI was -10.00 or below. The last time the SOI was at or below -10.00 for at least eight consecutive days was February 1-9, 2018.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.165. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.118. Should the AO average +0.956 for the remainder of February, it would finish with a meteorological winter average +0.001.

Based on historic experience (1950-2018) when the AO reached +3.000 or above during the February 1-15 period, the AO will likely remain predominantly positive through most of the second half of February. There still remains a possibility that the AO could head toward neutral or negative levels during the last week of the month, but probably not until after the AO again rises toward +3.000 or above.

On February 17, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.524 (RMM). The amplitude was above the February 16-adjusted figure of 1.283. The MJO could spend an extended duration in Phase 8.

The combination of a neutral-warm ENSO and a powerful polar vortex responsible for the strongly positive AO remain the dominant factors driving the pattern evolution. They will likely continue to predominate over the next week. As a result, MJO convection will have little meaningful impact on the larger pattern during that time.

The SOI remains at very negative levels. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. As a result, precipitation will likely be above to much above normal in both the Southwestern United States (including California) and Southeastern United States.

There could be several opportunities for snowfall in the East in coming days, the first of which is tonight into tomorrow. However, the probability of significant snowfall events (6" or more) is well below climatology (but not zero) for the Middle Atlantic region. Central/Upstate New York across central and northern New England have a greater probability of seeing significant snow events.

Given this context, the probabilities remain weighted against a large-scale snowstorm The next storm could bring a moderate snowfall (a general 3"-6") to an area focused on Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Washington on Wednesday into Thursday, but lesser snowfall from New York City into southern New England.

The forecast 500 mb pattern for the upcoming storm has some similarities to the composite 500 mb anomalies of February 17-18, 1967 and February 27-28, 2003, but with the ridging penetrating farther north. Such a pattern would see the most meaningful snows fall from central New Jersey southward.

Based on historic data following similar ENSO conditions to those of February 2019, March 1-15 could provide perhaps the final window of opportunity for a moderate or significant snowstorm in the New York City area. Afterward, pronounced warming could limit opportunities for snowfall.

　

[EastonSN+]

GFS looks cold and dry for a period before warming up and rain. Most likely correct given this winter. I REALLY want this winter to end and warm up.

[Rtd208]

 

[Eduardo]

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

You guys avoided the NYC Metro winter snow hole.

 

 

Yeah I'm pretty much at the epicenter of the ugliness right beneath that 1" contour, although I've personally measured 3.8" for the season here in Lindenhurst.  Still, blehhhhhhh.

 

Took two nice road trips the past two weekends though--one up to Lake Placid, NY and another to Great Barrington, MA.  Almost forgot what robust snowpack looks like.  For anybody else who feels down and out over this disappointment-of-a-winter, I highly recommend a trip north if you are able!  Absolutely beautiful up there!

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 40degs., or about 4degs. AN.

Month to date is +2.8[37.2].    Should be +3.2[38.1] by the 27th.

[bluewave]

Strongest -SOI drop in 2 years to -43.61. The atmosphere finally got the memo that this is an El Niño winter. Goes with the idea of a cool down at least near the beginning of March. So spring will have to wait a bit longer.

https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

2019  39 1010.44 1007.85  -10.33
2019  40 1011.34 1007.10   -2.40
2019  41 1012.02 1009.00   -8.26
2019  42 1011.48 1010.70  -19.02
2019  43 1010.38 1010.50  -23.34
2019  44 1010.29 1010.80  -25.22
2019  45 1010.95 1010.30  -19.64
2019  46 1012.06 1010.15  -13.59
2019  47 1010.66 1011.10  -24.88
2019  48 1009.02 1010.50  -29.88
2019  49 1006.97 1009.70  -35.88
2019  50 1005.91 1010.25  -43.61

 

[gravitylover]

^^Bummer. At this point I'm ready for the real flip to spring.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, gravitylover said:

^^Bummer. At this point I'm ready for the real flip to spring.

exactly.   Although if we could get one good storm in March, I'd be all in and then flip to spring right after.

[rgwp96]

30 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

exactly.   Although if we could get one good storm in March, I'd be all in and then flip to spring right after.

Yup I’ll take a 12 plus one but other wise I want spring 

[wdrag]

Have posted the snowfall/qpf on the Feb 17-18 ops thread, if you're interested in a look back.  Here also, i just want to post something... that has been excellently modeled I think beyond 10 days in advance by the GEFS especially (EPS was more tempered).  That means by the 26th... a small part of Tennessee could have 15" of rain in February while a part of Kentucky 10".  You can use this plus the 7 day QPF from WPC to be somewhat impressed. Light Red is 5+, purple 10+ the past two weeks. 

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Have posted the snowfall/qpf on the Feb 17-18 ops thread, if you're interested in a look back.  Here also, i just want to post something... that has been excellently modeled I think beyond 10 days in advance by the GEFS especially (EPS was more tempered).  That means by the 26th... a small part of Tennessee could have 15" of rain in February while a part of Kentucky 10".  You can use this plus the 7 day QPF from WPC to be somewhat impressed. Light Red is 5+, purple 10+ the past two weeks. 

the battle zone b/w the SE ridge and the colder air NW....

[MJO812]

March is the new December

[HailMan06]

23 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it was a record breaking WAR/SE Ridge in 2018. The background warming and extremes of this climate combined with the La Niña. So we can see how a piece of that pattern can stay stuck in place. Fits with the 2010’s stuck and stagnant pattern themes.

Yeah that ridge was so strong we basically experienced a northerly extension of the trades. It was an interestingly wet summer I felt like I was on the windward side of the Hawaiian Islands.

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

I'm not really considered coastal; no one here would remotely consider it as such. We are on the Arthur Kill though. And it was a beach resort in the 19 century. So sometimes when the coast does well we don't; and when inland does well we don't. I'd say urban island effect, but there's plenty of storms where Manhattan does better than us.

Urban heat island is definitely a major factor here in March.  But it's funny how we seem to do better in early April  (four major events here in early April since the early 80s) than we seem to do in March.  March 1993 is the only double digit March event (and that changed to rain) I have seen in March in all that time.  Actually I haven't seen any double digit events in April either, but the bar is lower for April so 4-8 inch events which we've gotten several times are more memorable.  There is a big drop off in major snowfalls here after the last day of February.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The only 2 months in 2018 that the record breaking WAR/SE Ridge relaxed were March and November. Be interesting to see if this March follows that pattern or we get a rebound in the SE Ridge by mid or late March.  This the 3rd February in a row with a SOI drop from January.

2017     1.3    -2.2   

2018     8.9    -6.0  

 

I think it was relaxed last April too, we got the one major April event but had more chances.  The whole month was cold and we didn't get warmth in here until we got that miniheat wave in May.

 

[LibertyBell]

17 hours ago, psv88 said:

32” in March 2018

Wow, this is going to sound sad but I haven't experienced a single double digit snowstorm after the last day of February except for March 1993, and even that changed to rain.  This area is urbanized like NYC is, so maybe that's why.

Thats why I find snow in April far more memorable- the 4x 4-8 inchers I've seen in April are more memorable than similar storms I've seen in March.

 

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think it was relaxed last April too, we got the one major April event but had more chances.  The whole month was cold and we didn't get warmth in here until we got that miniheat wave in May.

 

I wonder what is causing these big SOI drops during the last 3 Februaries?

https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

2017  46 1009.58 1009.75  -23.58
2017  47 1005.99 1009.60  -40.11
2017  48 1003.17 1009.25  -51.97
2017  49 1005.90 1009.55  -40.30
2017  50 1008.76 1008.05  -19.36
2017  51 1010.46 1007.65   -9.27
2017  52 1011.50 1009.20  -11.72
2017  53 1012.49 1009.90  -10.33
2017  54 1012.95 1009.10   -4.27
2017  55 1012.38 1008.80   -5.57

 

2018  32 1009.08 1006.65  -11.10
2018  33 1007.15 1006.30  -18.68
2018  34 1004.90 1006.25  -29.25
2018  35 1006.55 1006.45  -22.29
2018  36 1006.06 1005.45  -19.84
2018  37 1005.29 1006.20  -27.14
2018  38 1005.02 1006.10  -27.95
2018  39 1006.19 1006.35  -23.54
2018  40 1008.99 1006.40  -10.33
2018  41 1011.01 1006.65   -1.83
2018  42 1010.63 1007.10   -5.81
2018  43 1009.04 1007.00  -12.97
2018  44 1006.84 1006.55  -21.37
2018  45 1007.05 1006.90  -22.05
2018  46 1010.15 1008.30  -13.88
2018  47 1012.74 1009.60   -7.68
2018  48 1011.37 1009.40  -13.30
2018  49 1010.76 1008.75  -13.11
2018  50 1010.23 1008.70  -15.42
2018  51 1010.05 1007.95  -12.68
2018  52 1011.69 1007.75   -3.84

 

2019  39 1010.44 1007.85  -10.33
2019  40 1011.34 1007.10   -2.40
2019  41 1012.02 1009.00   -8.26
2019  42 1011.48 1010.70  -19.02
2019  43 1010.38 1010.50  -23.34
2019  44 1010.29 1010.80  -25.22
2019  45 1010.95 1010.30  -19.64
2019  46 1012.06 1010.15  -13.59
2019  47 1010.66 1011.10  -24.88
2019  48 1009.02 1010.50  -29.88
2019  49 1006.97 1009.70  -35.88
2019  50 1005.91 1010.25  -43.61

 

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I wonder what is causing these big SOI drops during the last 3 Februaries?

https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

2017  46 1009.58 1009.75  -23.58
2017  47 1005.99 1009.60  -40.11
2017  48 1003.17 1009.25  -51.97
2017  49 1005.90 1009.55  -40.30
2017  50 1008.76 1008.05  -19.36
2017  51 1010.46 1007.65   -9.27
2017  52 1011.50 1009.20  -11.72
2017  53 1012.49 1009.90  -10.33
2017  54 1012.95 1009.10   -4.27
2017  55 1012.38 1008.80   -5.57

 

2018  32 1009.08 1006.65  -11.10
2018  33 1007.15 1006.30  -18.68
2018  34 1004.90 1006.25  -29.25
2018  35 1006.55 1006.45  -22.29
2018  36 1006.06 1005.45  -19.84
2018  37 1005.29 1006.20  -27.14
2018  38 1005.02 1006.10  -27.95
2018  39 1006.19 1006.35  -23.54
2018  40 1008.99 1006.40  -10.33
2018  41 1011.01 1006.65   -1.83
2018  42 1010.63 1007.10   -5.81
2018  43 1009.04 1007.00  -12.97
2018  44 1006.84 1006.55  -21.37
2018  45 1007.05 1006.90  -22.05
2018  46 1010.15 1008.30  -13.88
2018  47 1012.74 1009.60   -7.68
2018  48 1011.37 1009.40  -13.30
2018  49 1010.76 1008.75  -13.11
2018  50 1010.23 1008.70  -15.42
2018  51 1010.05 1007.95  -12.68
2018  52 1011.69 1007.75   -3.84

 

2019  39 1010.44 1007.85  -10.33
2019  40 1011.34 1007.10   -2.40
2019  41 1012.02 1009.00   -8.26
2019  42 1011.48 1010.70  -19.02
2019  43 1010.38 1010.50  -23.34
2019  44 1010.29 1010.80  -25.22
2019  45 1010.95 1010.30  -19.64
2019  46 1012.06 1010.15  -13.59
2019  47 1010.66 1011.10  -24.88
2019  48 1009.02 1010.50  -29.88
2019  49 1006.97 1009.70  -35.88
2019  50 1005.91 1010.25  -43.61

 

 

It seems to me that we've seen a persistent area of blocking that's been migrating.  Remember what preceded this we had the strong Kara block in 2016 I believe and before that we had the strong EPO block.  Like you said earlier, persistent anomalies like these seem to be a new feature of our climate, I wonder what will dislodge this?  Likely something momentous that will create a persistent block elsewhere?

Persistent blocking could be the reason for these big SOI drops that show the result of sustained warming of the central and eastern Pacific.  Did you see this bar graph?