Dan76 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Oh we'll get an - NAO....APR-JUN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Eps doesn't look bad for Wednesday The EPS has sucked this winter just like all the others. Don’t hold your breath. Wednesday’s setup looks horrible, yet again, as has this entire winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Oh we'll get an - NAO....APR-JUN Nothing would suck more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 28 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: Nothing would suck more Ding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 It's coming!!! https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/14/weather-service-prepares-launch-new-prediction-model-that-many-forecasters-dont-trust/?utm_term=.4750253ec44d Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The EPS has sucked this winter just like all the others. Don’t hold your breath. Wednesday’s setup looks horrible, yet again, as has this entire winter Just like you said the last storm will be all rain. Just stop posting. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 31 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Just like you said the last storm will be all rain. Just stop posting. What's it showing Anthony? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 43 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: What's it showing Anthony? A few inches before it turns to sleet. Just like the last storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 36 minutes ago, Snow88 said: A few inches before it turns to sleet. Just like the last storm. Yep...from NWS-NYC... High pres builds in Mon night/Tue and there is surprisingly decent agreement amongst the guidance for a midweek storm next week, however am leery on the details due to the uncertainty with the Sun night/Mon system. Thus confidence is low. Could have a similar situation to what occurred this past Tue, but will need a few more days to iron the details out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 48 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Yep...from NWS-NYC... High pres builds in Mon night/Tue and there is surprisingly decent agreement amongst the guidance for a midweek storm next week, however am leery on the details due to the uncertainty with the Sun night/Mon system. Thus confidence is low. Could have a similar situation to what occurred this past Tue, but will need a few more days to iron the details out. Shades of 2007....dual sleetfests. Gotta take what we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 24 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Shades of 2007....dual sleetfests. Gotta take what we can get. This one could be worse with the HP closer and no storm going into the lakes and LP offshore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New York Blizzard Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 15 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: This one could be worse with the HP closer and no storm going into the lakes and LP offshore That looks like a snowstorm to me im back by the way feen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Basin-wide neutral-warm ENSO conditions persist. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.30°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.40°C for the week centered around February 6. For the past five weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Basin-wide, neutral-warm ENSO conditions are not conducive for large snowstorms in northern Mid-Atlantic cities including New York and Philadelphia during February. During March, as wave lengths shorten, there is an increased frequency of such events during neutral-warm ENSO conditions. However, approximately 75% of the monthly snowfall occurs March 15 or earlier. Essentially, winter typically concludes by mid-March when such ENSO conditions are present. March 2007 is the exception with the bulk of its monthly snow occurring a few days later. March 2007 is the only case where temperatures rose to near record levels toward the end of March rather than evolved toward persistent milder weather that fell short of challenging records. Such ENSO conditions will likely persist through February with some possible fluctuations to levels consistent with weak El Niño events. Under such a scenario, the probability of a significant snowfall (6" or more) will be well below climatology for the northern Mid-Atlantic region. The SOI was -19.64 today. That's the fourth consecutive day during which the SOI was -10.00 or below. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.437. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.222. Based on historic experience (1950-2018) when the AO reached +3.000 or above during the February 1-15 period, the AO will likely remain predominantly through most of the second half of February. The AO could head toward neutral or negative levels during the last week of the month. For the fifth consecutive day, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology reported no MJO data. That outcome may be the result of technical issues in pulling OLR data from NOAA sources due to website issues. However, based on model initialization (which is subject to some degree of error), the MJO has now moved into Phase 8. The MJO could spend an extended duration in Phase 8. As it remains in Phase 8, the AO should begin to decline. The SOI remains at very negative levels. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. As a result, precipitation will likely be above to much above normal in both the Southwestern United States (including California) and Southeastern United States. There could be several opportunities for snowfall in the East. However, the probability of significant snowfall events (6" or more) is below climatology for the Middle Atlantic region. Central/Upstate New York across central and northern New England have a greater probability of significant snow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: This one could be worse with the HP closer and no storm going into the lakes and LP offshore The 2nd sleet storm in 2007 was more intense and deeper, and delivered the snows to the interior. I think we topped out a 5 inches, of which most was sleet. Pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 What a laugh! JB and Joe D'leo now using a completely different set of analogs in an effort to explain why their Pioneer (analog model) failed. The new analog is 1959, I think. Just be prepared to sweep wet snow off of your Memorial Day Weekend picnic table, before setting it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 18 minutes ago, CIK62 said: What a laugh! JB and Joe D'leo now using a completely different set of analogs in an effort to explain why their Pioneer (analog model) failed. The new analog is 1959, I think. Just be prepared to sweep wet snow off of your Memorial Day Weekend picnic table, before setting it. They need to give it a rest. It was a wierd winter, and that's that. Memorial Day will likely be the way it usually is; damp and cloudy with showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 6 hours ago, Snow88 said: Just like you said the last storm will be all rain. Just stop posting. No offense man, now you are trolling. Whatever his past, he was fundamentally correct when he said it was a bad setup that wouldnt lead to much for NYC or Long Island. 1 hour of snow and sleet that added up to an inch before rain washed it away. I drove to JFK the next day at noon...a spec of snow or a puddle from melting were impossible to find. See below photo. Meanwhile, several posters deriding him on this site held tight with 3-6/2-4/1-3 wish casts. He was correct...or closer to correct. Ill step off my soapbox now...sometimes what is right needs to be called out. Frankly, he earned a stripe with the last storm in my book 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: No offense man, now you are trolling. Whatever his past, he was fundamentally correct when he said it was a bad setup that wouldnt lead to much for NYC or Long Island. 1 hour of snow and sleet that added up to an inch before rain washed it away. I drove to JFK the next day at noon...a spec of snow or a puddle from melting were impossible to find. Meanwhile, several posters deriding him on this site held tight with 3-6/2-4/1-3 wish casts. He was correct...or closer to correct. Ill step off my soapbox now...sometimes what is right needs to be called out. Frankly, he earned a stripe with the last storm in my book Uhm what? Not to just jump in but to be factual thats not what happened at all. The city saw 1-2 hours of snow but like 6 hours of sleet and roads were a mess all day. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 The city recorded 1 inch of snow and sleet. Let’s get real. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 9 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: The city recorded 1 inch of snow and sleet. Let’s get real. It was a let down in the snow department but the sleet lasted quite a while, the streets were a real mess that evening. Still some grassy surfaces here in the UWS covered by that mix. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 13 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: The city recorded 1 inch of snow and sleet. Let’s get real. The call of 1-3 wasn't a wishcast; it's just that amounts were closer to 1 and a little change, and 1 inch of sleet has much more impact that one inch of snow. Those who called this storm a nothing burger were dead wrong. Full stop. It's not all about accumulations. North and West did not get the numbers expected. Near the city we expected a sleet storm, and got one. Rain didn't start till much later, by then the damage had been done. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: The call of 1-3 wasn't a wishcast; it's just that amounts were closer to 1 and a little change, and I inch of sleet has much more impact that one inch of snow. Those who called this storm a nothing burger were dead wrong. Full stop. It's not all about accumulations. North and West did not get the numbers expected. Near the city we expected a sleet storm, and got one. Rain didn't start till much later, by then the damage had been done. Exactly. You won't get sleet to accumulate in the same way snow will but it doesn't lessen the impact. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 11 hours ago, Cfa said: My PWS is reporting a UV Index of 6 for the first time this year. I can feel it. Today’s sun angle is equivalent to Oct 27. I have a couple indoor plants and I noticed they recently started growing new leaves again. Little low tech solar radiation indicators lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: Exactly. You won't get sleet to accumulate in the same way snow will but it doesn't lessen the impact. Yeah and that sleet acclumation is very slow to melt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 hour ago, jfklganyc said: No offense man, now you are trolling. Whatever his past, he was fundamentally correct when he said it was a bad setup that wouldnt lead to much for NYC or Long Island. 1 hour of snow and sleet that added up to an inch before rain washed it away. I drove to JFK the next day at noon...a spec of snow or a puddle from melting were impossible to find. See below photo. Meanwhile, several posters deriding him on this site held tight with 3-6/2-4/1-3 wish casts. He was correct...or closer to correct. Ill step off my soapbox now...sometimes what is right needs to be called out. Frankly, he earned a stripe with the last storm in my book What rain washed the snow away in the city? The snow/sleet was still on the ground the next day and it's still here within the 5 boroughs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 47 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: It was a let down in the snow department but the sleet lasted quite a while, the streets were a real mess that evening. Still some grassy surfaces here in the UWS covered by that mix. The streets were terrible that night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Excellent posts about sleet. One of my favorite topics and this storm, once again, showed the impact of sleet is as great as snow, since impact is largely due to frozen mass and not depth and the 3/4" of snow and 1" of sleet we got has 0.4" of frozen LE in it, which is 4" of "snow equivalent" (at 10:1). Far more impactful than the 1.7" of depth would be if it had only been snow - and the pics of traffic impacts around the region said it all. And sleet is much slower to melt than snow, due to its much lower surface area to volume ratio (spheres vs. dendrites - no contest on SA/V), which is really important initially when the frozen precip is trying to accumulate. People calling this storm a "nothingburger" are meteorological morons. Sorry, had to be said. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 38degs ., or about 3degs. AN. EURO Weeklies have SE RIDGE winning it all, though we are on the borderline for say 2/26-3/10. Look for a surprise there only. Bet on SE RIDGE to Win Place and Show. What a horse! Sat. event way south on every model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 7 hours ago, Snow88 said: What rain washed the snow away in the city? The snow/sleet was still on the ground the next day and it's still here within the 5 boroughs. Where? In the Northern Bronx? I showed a pic 7 hours after the storm ended in queens. You see snow there? Or a puddle from melting? The storm was not a nothing burger… It made travel treacherous for most of the day. The storm also had a bad set up and was not a snowstorm for New York as the poster you derided before and after the storm stated. 1 inch was recorded. I am not getting into the posters past, I’m just saying he earns some credibility with this last storm. That’s why most of us are on here, not to fight with other posters, But to have a credible discussion about weather happening or possibly happening. I Don’t want to see anybody that has good insight get derided. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 NYC needs to find a few more inches of snow this month in order to pull ahead of 01-02 and 11-12 in the DJF snowfall department. Currently the 3rd lowest at 2.3 since December 1st. 1 1997-1998 0.5 0 2 1918-1919 1.1 0 3 2018-2019 2.3 14 4 1972-1973 2.6 0 5 1931-1932 2.7 0 6 1991-1992 3.2 0 7 2001-2002 3.5 0 8 2011-2012 4.5 0 9 1989-1990 5.0 0 10 1900-1901 5.1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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