February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

[bluewave]

More records that we would normally associate with a La Niña and strong -PNA SE Ridge.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSAtlanta/status/1093857691917828098

For Atlanta, a high temperature of 80 degrees ties the record for the warmest observed temperature in the month of February. The other 80 degree days in February through past records were Feb 26th, 1996 and Feb 15th, 1989.

 

Yesterday's high temperature of 80 degrees was also the earliest date in the year that Atlanta has reached 80 degrees going back through the period of record -->1879!

[Fantom X]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

More records that we would normally associate with a La Niña and strong -PNA SE Ridge.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSAtlanta/status/1093857691917828098

For Atlanta, a high temperature of 80 degrees ties the record for the warmest observed temperature in the month of February. The other 80 degree days in February through past records were Feb 26th, 1996 and Feb 15th, 1989.

 

Yesterday's high temperature of 80 degrees was also the earliest date in the year that Atlanta has reached 80 degrees going back through the period of record -->1879!

Charlotte also had the all time earliest highest low temperature at 64 degrees. The previous record was 62 and the earliest 64 minimum on record was in mid march

[bluewave]

33 minutes ago, Fantom X said:

Charlotte also had the all time earliest highest low temperature at 64 degrees. The previous record was 62 and the earliest 64 minimum on record was in mid march

Goes to show how impressive that 80 was last February at Newark. You wouldn’t think the February maximum temperatures  for Newark and Atlanta would be the same.

[ILoveWinter]

44 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The EPS now shows a favorable track for next weekend's storm

Know it’s a long way off but what’s the timing with this one? Just want to keep a close eye as I have an afternoon flight on Saturday.

[uofmiami]

40 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Know it’s a long way off but what’s the timing with this one? Just want to keep a close eye as I have an afternoon flight on Saturday.

I have a morning flight to LAX from JFK, hoping it’s just rain. As I don’t want to deal with delays etc with an 8 month old and 3 year old.  I’d wait til midweek before worrying about the storm truthfully, get the Tuesday storm out of the way first. 

[ILoveWinter]

34 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

I have a morning flight to LAX from JFK, hoping it’s just rain. As I don’t want to deal with delays etc with an 8 month old and 3 year old.  I’d wait til midweek before worrying about the storm truthfully, get the Tuesday storm out of the way first. 

Haha same with me as I am traveling with a 5 year old to Orlando and dont want to deal with any delays or cancellations!

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

The EPS now shows a favorable track for next weekend's storm

Probably a result of the EPS showing a phase 8 MJO. 

The pattern overall is rather crappy, telleconnections aren't good for snow.

But it's so active and cold up north that all it takes is a perfectly timed shortwave and we'll get some frozen. It is still Feb after all. 

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Probably a result of the EPS showing a phase 8 MJO. 

The pattern overall is rather crappy, telleconnections aren't good for snow.

But it's so active and cold up north that all it takes is a perfectly timed shortwave and we'll get some frozen. It is still Feb after all. 

GFS on the other hand shows a warm cutter.   Too far out at this point.   Agree on the crappy pattern...when Seattle's getting hammered, we're usually wet.   

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

GFS on the other hand shows a warm cutter.   Too far out at this point.   Agree on the crappy pattern...when Seattle's getting hammered, we're usually wet.   

I buy the warm cutter right now. I feel better about the system after that, tellies look better after mid-month.

I am hoping for a strong GFS esque cutter, it could really bring the cold air down for the next system.

[David-LI]

For the last three runs the GFS has been hitting at a coastal transfer for next week event. That system will only enter the US continent on Wednesday. A lot will change by then. Also the euro did a huge jump SE.

[David-LI]

7 hours ago, ILoveWinter said:

Know it’s a long way off but what’s the timing with this one? Just want to keep a close eye as I have an afternoon flight on Saturday.

It might affect your flight. So keep an eye on it. Models are showing a Saturday event for now.

[donsutherland1]

The region is in line for accumulating snowfall tonight into tomorrow and again tomorrow night into Tuesday.

The SOI was -8.26 today.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.033. That is the highest value since September 26, 2018 when the AO was +2.130. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.376.

February 9 MJO data was not available from Australia's Bureau of Meteorology. The MJO had been in Phase 6 on February 8.

After spending another day or two in Phase 6, the MJO should return to Phase 7. Upon reaching Phase 7, it should slowly advance toward Phase 8. It could approach or reach Phase 8 near mid-month.

After that, there remains uncertainty. Even as some of the dynamical models show the MJO's pushing into Phase 1, the historical risks are somewhat weighted in favor of a possible return to Phase 7. Right now, none of the operational guidance shows such an outcome, but the guidance has not fared well in the extended range.

The risks of a delayed return to Atlantic blocking have recently increased. During neutral-warm ENSO conditions, the MJO's being in Phase 7 at a high amplitude has often coincided with a positive AO. The latest GEFS guidance has suggested that the AO+, once it develops, could persist beyond mid-month.

However, as the MJO moves into Phase 8, the AO should return to negative values. Were the AO to peak at or above +3.000, the probability of that outcome could decline. A period of sustained colder readings could develop afterward.

The development of a fairly stormy pattern is now imminent. Two light snow events are likely within the next 4 days. The first event will be a clipper system that brings a swath of 1"-3" snow across southeastern Pennsylvania, northeastern Maryland, northern Delaware and up to central New Jersey tonight into tomorrow. Some locally higher amounts are possible.

A second larger system will likely bring a period of snow changing to sleet, freezing rain, then rain across the region later tomorrow into Tuesday. Accumulations of 1"-3" in Philadelphia and 2"-4" in such cities as Newark and New York are likely. Well north and west of those areas (including Scranton and Binghamton) and eastward across parts of New England, including the snow-starved Boston area, the potential exists for 3"-6".

 

[TJW014]

Just under 1 inch of snow on the ground. Temperature hovering right at 32. Assuming a 6:1 ratio

[Ji]

The region is in line for accumulating snowfall tonight into tomorrow and again tomorrow night into Tuesday.
The SOI was -8.26 today.
Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.033. That is the highest value since September 26, 2018 when the AO was +2.130. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.376.
February 9 MJO data was not available from Australia's Bureau of Meteorology. The MJO had been in Phase 6 on February 8.
After spending another day or two in Phase 6, the MJO should return to Phase 7. Upon reaching Phase 7, it should slowly advance toward Phase 8. It could approach or reach Phase 8 near mid-month.
After that, there remains uncertainty. Even as some of the dynamical models show the MJO's pushing into Phase 1, the historical risks are somewhat weighted in favor of a possible return to Phase 7. Right now, none of the operational guidance shows such an outcome, but the guidance has not fared well in the extended range.
The risks of a delayed return to Atlantic blocking have recently increased. During neutral-warm ENSO conditions, the MJO's being in Phase 7 at a high amplitude has often coincided with a positive AO. The latest GEFS guidance has suggested that the AO+, once it develops, could persist beyond mid-month.
However, as the MJO moves into Phase 8, the AO should return to negative values. Were the AO to peak at or above +3.000, the probability of that outcome could decline. A period of sustained colder readings could develop afterward.
The development of a fairly stormy pattern is now imminent. Two light snow events are likely within the next 4 days. The first event will be a clipper system that brings a swath of 1"-3" snow across southeastern Pennsylvania, northeastern Maryland, northern Delaware and up to central New Jersey tonight into tomorrow. Some locally higher amounts are possible.
A second larger system will likely bring a period of snow changing to sleet, freezing rain, then rain across the region later tomorrow into Tuesday. Accumulations of 1"-3" in Philadelphia and 2"-4" in such cities as Newark and New York are likely. Well north and west of those areas (including Scranton and Binghamton) and eastward across parts of New England, including the snow-starved Boston area, the potential exists for 3"-6".
 

Time to get finally excited about winter starting next week

[MJO812]

Woke up to everything covered.

Shocked

[bluewave]

This continues to be one if the most persistent storm track patterns of this nature since November. All of our storm tracks have been cutter, hugger, or suppressed southern stream. Still no pure benchmark tracks showing up in the guidance. It’s been very rare for this decade for the BM tracks to be missing like this.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This continues to be one if the most persistent storm track patterns of this nature since November. All of our storm tracks have been cutter, hugger, or suppressed southern stream. Still no pure benchmark tracks showing up in the guidance. It’s been very rare for this decade for the BM tracks to be missing like this.

That might change after next week

[CIK62]

GFSx still down for a third day.    Strange, since it worked fine during the 35 day government shutdown.

From other sources, the next 8 days are averaging 36degs., about 2degs AN.   Nothing spectacular showing on the NAEFS either, for the next 15 days.    I say this winter is over, save a surprise event.

Month to date is +3.5[ 37.2 ].     

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

That might change after next week

I hope we can at least get one benchmark snowstorm before the end of March. To my knowledge, NYC hasn’t reached normal seasonal snowfall without at least one BM snowstorm in the past.

[uncle W]

46 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This continues to be one if the most persistent storm track patterns of this nature since November. All of our storm tracks have been cutter, hugger, or suppressed southern stream. Still no pure benchmark tracks showing up in the guidance. It’s been very rare for this decade for the BM tracks to be missing like this.

1972-73 revisited...

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

That might change after next week

I’m not buying the 2/21-March cold and snowy pattern change forecasts being touted, at all. The AO is going raging positive next week, the NAO is going solidly positive and the PNA will still be strongly negative. The PAC jet still roaring

[495weatherguy]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m not buying the 2/21-March cold and snowy pattern change forecasts being touted, at all. The AO is going raging positive next week, the NAO is going solidly positive and the PNA will still be strongly negative. The PAC jet still roaring

It seems to this amateur that the pac-jet influence is wildly understated/understood

[uncle W]

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Goes to show how important Atlantic storm tracks are for our snowfall here. We only notice it when the BM storm track gets shut down. 

 

is it shut down for the rest of the season or a long term trend like we saw in the 1980's?...

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, uncle W said:

is it shut down for the rest of the season or a long term trend like we saw in the 1980's?...

The benchmark track will probably return once we lose all the competing influences causing the interference. Much different atmospheric and oceanic SST patterns than the 1980’s.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

43 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

Actually the EPS shows a stout -NAO in the long range. Glad you don’t buy that though, we didn’t expect anything different from you.   Maybe you should look at the guidance first. 

Exactly, he just makes things up to suit his narrative. After a relaxation things get very interesting. Obviously it’s far enough to not be set in stone but the pattern overall becomes much more conducive.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Exactly, he just makes things up to suit his narrative. After a relaxation things get very interesting. Obviously it’s far enough to not be set in stone but the pattern overall becomes much more conducive.

We can only hope.   Looks warm rest of this week into the weekend though-that definitely trended warmer from a week ago.   The SOI is crashing, so that may help the cause here.   PAC is still bad though...mixed signals, but better than all the indices being bad....

[wdrag]

Good Monday morning all, Its Feb 11 and the modeling while not ideal for MECS, certainly bodes well for multiple events the remainder of Feb and probably the first week of March.  Some of those should have decent front end thumps of snow-sleet ( i know not enough for I95, but who thought 4-6" by tomorrow morning near PHL s NJ????  one model did--the GGEM have 3-4"+)  We know about tomorrow up here.  19th-20th might be halfway decent VA's to SNE, 22nd-23rd  and 25th-26th also ensembled (EPS/GEFS).  The EPS has an 80% chance for half a foot of snow in NYC by the end of the 26th... the ensembled storm track is showing signs of depressing slightly south with a possibly persistent colder flavor after the 17th.  In any case...the GEFS which tends to be more accurate on large qpf,  is flagging 4-5" of w.e. pcpn in NJ between tomorrow and the 26th. I believe it.  Frigid airmass covering MT/DKTS this month continues through the end of Feb and the warmer than normal far se USA continues a nice storm track here in the ne, albeit with the history of dealing with cutters (OH Valley not redeveloping fast enough of LI).  Still,  prospects look a little better, especially w MJO trending colder phases. I even think the -NAO is already trying to develop now (transitory) and modeling some slight suppression which should become a little stronger after the 17th.   It's more or less the next 3 weeks we have to do this.  Fingers crossed the modeling and southward drift are thee eventual reality. 911a/11

[Brian5671]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Lol the EPS has been showing a -NAO in the long range for months now, since November to be exact, what happened? But you go ahead and believe that mirage again. The AO is going raging positive and still -PNA

I would not buy into any NAO right now at all.   The PNA is the wildcard along with the EPO.   IF we can get a favorable PNA for a couple of weeks with the MJO in the 8-1-2 phases we have a shot at a couple of systems.   The good news is there is alot of cold in Canada, however if it dumps out west it will do us no good and it's cutter city.    SOI crash is another wildcard.  

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

Don’t sweat it ant, let the boards most famous troll get his 5 post max in today.   Hopefully the mods get involved again because what he posted regarding the teleconnections is totally false.  The GEFS and EPS now all show a building -NAO for next week. 

The problem with that is that those models have shown that several times in the 7-10 day range only for it to disappear in the medium range...

[David-LI]

12z GFS might be on to something here for the weekend. It has time to improve. Upper levels look good.