February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

[JustinRP37]

Yeah last summer we shattered the record for number of days with dew points at or above 70F. It was downright Miamiesque  for a good portion of the summer for humidity. It was not, however, a super hot summer, but it definitely was above normal and VERY humid for the region.

[weatherpruf]

16 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Re Snow days. The world has changed a lot in the last 20 years.

 

Things that were acceptable in the 80s and 90s and not acceptable now. NYC never closed schools. Never. In 1994 we had several huge snowstorms where schools were open.

Thank liability; thank social media. Thank a softer world. That is why you have more snow days now.

Oh for sure. Our district must have every sidewalk to the school cleaned before it can open; hence two days off for 4 inches of cement last march. People will sue us in a heartbeat. If there is any ice Tues, depending on the timing ( when is the start time? ) we could be off.

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, JustinRP37 said:

Yeah last summer we shattered the record for number of days with dew points at or above 70F. It was downright Miamiesque  for a good portion of the summer for humidity. It was not, however, a super hot summer, but it definitely was above normal and VERY humid for the region.

It resulted in a huge overgrowth of mold in many schools, and the resultant panic as well. Removing the mold sometimes resulted in disturbing asbestos as well, causing more panic.

[MJO812]

Gfs Sv map shows 4+ for NYC and 2-4 on tropical tidbits map. Mostly sleet and ice then rain

[rclab]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

I was born at the beginning of a six year snow drought in 1949...The periods of 1969-70 to 1976-77 (Eight Years) had no major storms...the best chances changed to rain or were to far south and east of us...biggest storm in this period was 7.8" in Feb. 1975...only eleven 4" storms in that period...from the 1983-84 season to the 1991-92 season ( nine years ) had no major storms...biggest storm in this period was 8.9" in Feb. 1991...it was a bullseye storm...nineteen 4" storm in that period...2013-14 and 2015-16 had six each for comparison...edit...1929-30 to 1931-32 had no storms 4" or more...

I was born 8 months before the late Dec. 1947 storm. Like you, Unc, I’ve seen it all, boom to bust. Delivered mail in a raging blizzard. Nearly got blown of a row house roof trying to clear it after another snow deluge and of course have admired early spring flowers blooming in late January and February. I wonder now, with the changes in the atmosphere, how my experiences will end.                   As always ....

[MJO812]

Cmc is very cold to start for the event with moderate to heavy precip with temps below freezing.

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, rclab said:

I was born 8 months before the late Dec. 1947 storm. Like you, Unc, I’ve seen it all, boom to bust. Delivered mail in a raging blizzard. Nearly got blown of a row house roof trying to clear it after another snow deluge and of course have admired early spring flowers blooming in late January and February. I wonder now, with the changes in the atmosphere, how my experiences will end.                   As always ....

I have solar panels now, and the snow falls off in cascades. It's kinda dangerous and something I didn't expect.

[rclab]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

I have solar panels now, and the snow falls off in cascades. It's kinda dangerous and something I didn't expect.

Wow. Now that’s frightening. At least the row houses are tilted towards the isolated back space and unless it’s you going over with the snow it’s generally harmless.

[snowman19]

Be careful with any 10:1 ratio maps showing “snow”, most of them count sleet as snow and some even count freezing rain as snow. It looks like Tuesday may actually start as sleet and some freezing rain then quickly go over to all rain. The NAM is basically showing this. There is going to be a tremendous mid-level warm punch and very warm at that

[uncle W]

10 minutes ago, rclab said:

I was born 8 months before the late Dec. 1947 storm. Like you, Unc, I’ve seen it all, boom to bust. Delivered mail in a raging blizzard. Nearly got blown of a row house roof trying to clear it after another snow deluge and of course have admired early spring flowers blooming in late January and February. I wonder now, with the changes in the atmosphere, how my experiences will end.                   As always ....

when growing up my favorite story my family told me was the big snow of 1947...The next year in Dec. 1948 there was another storm that was 19.3" at Battery Place...I was in my mothers belly and she fell in the snow and someone saw her and helped her get home...That's another story I was told while growing up in Brooklyn...my first big storm was the March 56 snowstorm...

[rclab]

2 minutes ago, uncle W said:

when growing up my favorite story my family told me was the big snow of 1947...The next year in Dec. 1948 there was another storm that was 19.3" at Battery Place...I was in my mothers belly and she fell in the snow and someone saw her and helped her get home...That's another story I was told while growing up in Brooklyn...my first big storm was the March 56 snowstorm...

Unc., now that’s I story I would love to hear. Times certainly were different. As always ...

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Be careful with any 10:1 ratio maps showing “snow”, most of them count sleet as snow and some even count freezing rain as snow. It looks like Tuesday may actually start as sleet and some freezing rain then quickly go over to all rain. The NAM is basically showing this. There is going to be a tremendous mid-level warm punch and very warm at that

Its a little better set up than the last storm. Probably 1 to 2 inches of snow sleet mix for coast and City. Remember even if the model shows pink, snow and sleet mix DOES accumulate just slower obviously. So yes less than some maps show but if it starts as snow sleet mix does not mean an inch or two of accumulation cannot occur.

[sussexcountyobs]

I think a separate storm thread should be made for this event so it's easier to read through.

[RU848789]

CMC is all frozen from about New Brunswick to NYC through 7 pm Tuesday, when about 1" of LE has fallen (then another 0.7" of LE or so, mostly as rain, is my guess, as surface temps are in the upper 30s by 1 am Weds, the next timepoint and are just at or slightly above 32F at 7 pm, so the changeover appears imminent).  This is several inches of snow, as per the first map, then a couple of inches of sleet (~6" worth of snow at 10:1) for the precip through 7 pm.  

 

 

[NEG NAO]

8 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

I think a separate storm thread should be made for this event so it's easier to read through.

here it is

 

[bluewave]

10th warmest first 8 days of February in NYC at 39.4 degrees. 4th warmest max at 65 degrees.

46.9...1991

42.9....2016...2008

42.6.....2006

41.8.....1999

41.4......2012

41.3......1990

40.9......1952

40.5.......2005

40.3.......1877

39.4........2019

 

70....1991

68.....2008...1890

67.....1989

65......2019

62.....2017...2012...2006...1988

 

[NEG NAO]

storm thread created - lets discuss there

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52025-february-11-12-winter-storm-threat/

[Brasiluvsnow]

Heres the thing for me --> with the models inconsistency this year = I have to believe there is wiggle room and Im giving a lot of wiggle room as we are still 3 days out. If Low # 1 is not REALLY as strong as depicted and not REALLY as far west as advertised--------> And Low # 2 is not really as weak or as far North as advertised = what then ? I mean is it really insane to say that this can't be possible or happen with the way this winter has gone ? I still have a lot to learn and am fairly new at this but I just can't take what the models say 3 days out to be gospel that means even if they were showing a snowstorm for all right now I would have huge questions / doubts 3 days out. 

[Cfa]

4 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

Re Snow days. The world has changed a lot in the last 20 years.

 

Things that were acceptable in the 80s and 90s and not acceptable now. NYC never closed schools. Never. In 1994 we had several huge snowstorms where schools were open.

Thank liability; thank social media. Thank a softer world. That is why you have more snow days now.

Why have more people/vehicles on the roads during major storms? There’s nothing “tough” about forcing people to be stranded, it’s nonsensical. Also, the 2000’s have trounced the 80’s and 90’s in terms of snowfall.

My daily commute to/from school was 3 hours on a sunny day, if it was going to snow an appreciable amount I wasn’t going, snow day or not. One time I got home at 8-9PM when dismissal was at 2PM, 11 years old, no phone, no money, only a student metro card with sporadic bus service.

Public schools didn’t see regular snow days until I was in high school, private schools always had regular snow days.

[weatherpruf]

7 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Why have more people/vehicles on the roads during major storms? It’s unnecessary. There’s nothing “tough” about forcing people to be stranded, it’s nonsensical.

My daily commute to/from school was 3 hours on a sunny day, if it was going to snow an appreciable amount I wasn’t going, snow day or not. One time I got home at 8-9PM when dismissal was at 2PM, 11 years old, no phone, no money, only a student metro card with sporadic bus service.

Public schools didn’t see regular snow days until I was in high school, private schools always had regular snow days.

Public schools in NJ have always had snow days, but what has happened is that kids do not walk to school nearly as much. There's a traffic jam every morning at every school in my district; the principal must meet with the police traffic director and make a traffic plan each year. That's in nice weather. In rain it is even worse, and in snow forget it. And yes, parents will drop their kids at school in the snow if it is open, and then go to work. Now the kid has to walk home in the snow if there is an early dismissal. The superintendent gets heat from parents for that. Mom is not home to stay with the kids anymore either, and neither is dad, and granny is too sick. And are the kids dressed to walk in the snow? No they aren't. Private schools? They don't legally have to make days up. So they cancel easily. Always did.

[Cfa]

22 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Public schools in NJ have always had snow days, but what has happened is that kids do not walk to school nearly as much. There's a traffic jam every morning at every school in my district; the principal must meet with the police traffic director and make a traffic plan each year. That's in nice weather. In rain it is even worse, and in snow forget it. And yes, parents will drop their kids at school in the snow if it is open, and then go to work. Now the kid has to walk home in the snow if there is an early dismissal. The superintendent gets heat from parents for that. Mom is not home to stay with the kids anymore either, and neither is dad, and granny is too sick. And are the kids dressed to walk in the snow? No they aren't. Private schools? They don't legally have to make days up. So they cancel easily. Always did.

School buses and snow days sound like a dream lol. I was taking the city bus and the E train to school in the 3rd grade.

I think that’s partly why I hate winter so much, having to brave the elements for hours each day, and having the cold air trigger my asthma. Waiting for and squeezing onto crowded, wet, and slow MTA buses in the snow isn’t fun at all either. Driving (or a school bus) makes it all far more tolerable.

[bluewave]

This -PNA continues to produce for Seattle.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSSeattle/status/1094336493018103808

Seattle has recorded 10.6" of snow (as of 9AM) so far this February. This already makes this February this snowiest since 1949 (13.1" recorded) and the 2nd snowiest February on record (since 1945). Records taken at Sea-Tac. #WAwx

Enjoy this quick break in the action this afternoon into the first
half of Sunday. Attention will quickly becomes focused on a
quick, almost clipper like system Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night where additional snowfall is likely across portions of the
area-there seems to be a northward nudge in the storm track from
previous days. Snowfall accumulation does not appear as high as
the last two storms but nonetheless will add on to what is already
on the ground now. This quick system will then rapidly be
followed by a much stronger system where additional snowfall is
becoming increasingly likely Monday night into Tuesday.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

The milder weather that dominated recent days has now departed. A colder and generally dry weekend is now unfolding.

The SOI was -2.40 today.

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) surged to positive values. Today's preliminary value was +1.153. That is the highest value since December 13, 2018 when the AO was +1.465. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.410.

On February 8, the MJO remained in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.218 (RMM). The amplitude had fallen slightly from the February 7-adjusted figure of 1.303.

After spending another day or two in Phase 6, the MJO should return to Phase 7. Upon reaching Phase 7, it should slowly advance toward Phase 8. It could approach or reach Phase 8 near mid-month.

After that, there remains uncertainty. Even as some of the dynamical models show the MJO's pushing into Phase 1, the historical risks are somewhat weighted in favor of a possible return to Phase 7. Right now, none of the operational guidance shows such an outcome, but the guidance has not fared well in the extended range.

The risks of a delayed return to Atlantic blocking have recently increased. During neutral-warm ENSO conditions, the MJO's being in Phase 7 at a high amplitude has often coincided with a positive AO. The latest GEFS guidance has suggested that the AO+, once it develops, could persist beyond mid-month.

However, as the MJO moves into Phase 8, the AO should return to negative values. Were the AO to peak at or above +3.000, the probability of that outcome could decline. A period of sustained colder readings could develop afterward.

The development of a fairly stormy pattern is now imminent. Two light snow events are likely within the next 5 days. The first event will be a clipper system that brings a swath of 1"-3" snow across southeastern Pennsylvania, northeastern Maryland, northern Delaware and up to central New Jersey. Some locally higher amounts are possible.

A second larger system will likely bring a period of snow changing to sleet, freezing rain, then rain across the region later Monday into Tuesday. Accumulations of 1"-3" in Philadelphia and 2"-4" in such cities as Newark and New York are likely. Well north and west of those areas (including Scranton and Binghamton) and eastward across parts of New England, including the snow-starved Boston area, the potential exists for 3"-6".

The ENSO Region 1+2 and 3.4 weekly anomalies centered around January 30 were +1.0°C and +0.3°C respectively. Three of the past four weeks have seen ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies below +0.50°C. In short, basin-wide, neutral-warm ENSO conditions currently prevail. Such conditions are not conducive for large snowstorms in cities such as New York and Philadelphia.

Since 1950, there were just 3 snowstorms of 4" or more in Boston during February when the ENSO 1+2 anomaly was > 0.00°C and the ENSO 3.4 anomaly ranged from 0.00°C to 0.69°C. In New York City, there was just one such storm and in Philadelphia there were two. The biggest snowstorms during such ENSO conditions were as follows: Boston: 9.7"; New York City: 4.3"; and, Philadelphia: 4.7". Those three figures might represent the upper bound of what's possible in terms of accumulations in the current pattern unless there is strong modeling consensus for a larger snowfall.

Finally, through 4 pm, Caribou's seasonal snowfall had increased to 115.4". That ranks just below the 116.2" during winter 2007-08 as the second highest season total snowfall on record at this point in time.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This -PNA continues to produce for Seattle.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSSeattle/status/1094336493018103808

Seattle has recorded 10.6" of snow (as of 9AM) so far this February. This already makes this February this snowiest since 1949 (13.1" recorded) and the 2nd snowiest February on record (since 1945). Records taken at Sea-Tac. #WAwx

Enjoy this quick break in the action this afternoon into the first
half of Sunday. Attention will quickly becomes focused on a
quick, almost clipper like system Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night where additional snowfall is likely across portions of the
area-there seems to be a northward nudge in the storm track from
previous days. Snowfall accumulation does not appear as high as
the last two storms but nonetheless will add on to what is already
on the ground now. This quick system will then rapidly be
followed by a much stronger system where additional snowfall is
becoming increasingly likely Monday night into Tuesday.

 

 

Seattle also needs just 0.7" additional snow in order for winter 2018-19 to become that city's snowiest winter since 2008-09 when 23.2" was measured.

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Seattle also needs just 0.7" additional snow in order for winter 2018-19 to become that city's snowiest winter since 2008-09 when 23.2" was measured.

Very impressive La Niña themes for even a weak El Niño winter. I guess we knew something was up when we got such a positive SOI reading in December.

[weatherpruf]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very impressive La Niña themes for even a weak El Niño winter. I guess we knew something was up when we got such a positive SOI reading in December.

Would you believe I had a client today depressed about how long and cold this winter has been? And talk of possible snow has made him even worse. We forget here how much people hate winter, and that for some people it is profoundly depressing and they would move if they could.

[donsutherland1]

23 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Would you believe I had a client today depressed about how long and cold this winter has been? And talk of possible snow has made him even worse. We forget here how much people hate winter, and that for some people it is profoundly depressing and they would move if they could.

I know some people who feel the same way.

[psv88]

44 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Would you believe I had a client today depressed about how long and cold this winter has been? And talk of possible snow has made him even worse. We forget here how much people hate winter, and that for some people it is profoundly depressing and they would move if they could.

This winter has seemed like an eternity for me as well. its the darkness that gets me

[CIK62]

GFSx was down today.   Maybe it euthanized itself.    If it comes back online, it better show something good.    We are about to blow a potential 40" at 10:1 during the next 16 days, and not even a fantasy storm is showing up with about 5 tries.     We must still be a long way from the real thing, because the models are not good enough to not slip up at least once.

[HVSnowLover]

7 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Heres the thing for me --> with the models inconsistency this year = I have to believe there is wiggle room and Im giving a lot of wiggle room as we are still 3 days out. If Low # 1 is not REALLY as strong as depicted and not REALLY as far west as advertised--------> And Low # 2 is not really as weak or as far North as advertised = what then ? I mean is it really insane to say that this can't be possible or happen with the way this winter has gone ? I still have a lot to learn and am fairly new at this but I just can't take what the models say 3 days out to be gospel that means even if they were showing a snowstorm for all right now I would have huge questions / doubts 3 days out. 

Thats true and low one could also go even further west and/or the secondary could go further west. It could still trend a bit in either direction but given the way this winter has gone if there is trending it will more likely be northwest not  southeast.