NYCweatherNOW Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 It’s the same crap it’s thermals are terrible so take it with a grain of salt, the best model for thermals is the nam but it’s not in range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: It’s the same crap it’s thermals are terrible so take it with a grain of salt, the best model for thermals is the nam but it’s not in range I agree Gfs sucks in these kind of situations. What's funny is that the cmc is alot colder than the gfs. Snow to ice to rain for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Imagine seeing a sub-988mb low cutting to Mackinac and thinking "yeah, nah, that's just the old 3 degree warm bias in the BL at it again" 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Just now, Juliancolton said: Imagine seeing a sub-988mb low cutting to Mackinac and thinking "yeah, nah, that's just the old 3 degree warm bias in the BL at it again" Gfs sucks in cad events. It's a fact. Cmc is alot colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs sucks in all events. It's a fact. Cmc is alot colder. Fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs sucks in cad events. It's a fact. Cmc is alot colder. reason being look at the difference of the position of the high to the north and the primary to the west and their individual strength 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Fyp Meh It's not that bad of a model. Even the almighty Euro flops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Just now, NEG NAO said: reason being look at the difference of the position of the high to the north and the primary to the west and their individual strength Yep Both models still have rain after the initial light snowfall but the cmc is better with the position of the lakes cutter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: reason being look at the difference of the position of the high to the north and the primary to the west and their individual strength We’ve been through this a million times you’re not a rookie gfs is horrible. The only thing GfS seems to be decent is the track 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 This is a 4-6 inch snowfall to sleet for five minutes and some rain at the tail end. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said: This is a 4-6 inch snowfall to sleet for five minutes and some rain at the tail end. Where do I sign? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: This is a 4-6 inch snowfall to sleet for five minutes and some rain at the tail end. That might happen but the model shows snow to ice to rain for NYC with 2-4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: This is a 4-6 inch snowfall to sleet for five minutes and some rain at the tail end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Yep Both models still have rain after the initial light snowfall but the cmc is better with the position of the lakes cutter. This isn't something I'm optimistic about around NYC after an initial maybe 1-3" of snow/slop. It's a pretty typical Nina-like setup where the primary and SW flow aloft kills the cold air in place despite it redeveloping and the high over Quebec. That might save it for Boston but whatever redevelopment is too late here. NW areas hold onto cold surface air and have an icy setup. Maybe some of these basic conditions can change but it's not something I'm staying up to track around my neck of the woods at least. The Nov 15th system may have been the one of 10 of these SWFE crap events to work out but odds are this is a brief snow to washout event near the coast. Also, these often trend warm at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: He might be right if the precip comes in earlier than forecasted or the lakes low weakens. We have to watch future model runs to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: This isn't something I'm optimistic about around NYC after an initial maybe 1-3" of snow/slop. It's a pretty typical Nina-like setup where the primary and SW flow aloft kills the cold air in place despite it redeveloping and the high over Quebec. That might save it for Boston but whatever redevelopment is too late here. NW areas hold onto cold surface air and have an icy setup. Maybe some of these basic conditions can change but it's not something I'm staying up to track around my neck of the woods at least. The Nov 15th system may have been the one of 10 of these SWFE crap events to work out but odds are this is a brief snow to washout event near the coast. Also, these often trend warm at the end. It will all depend where the low goes and then transfers. We have a cold airmas in place. I like a few inches before the changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 okay so I am not sure what TWC is seeing ? I know the GFS sucks with temps and the Canadian looks cold but TWC just recently lowered temps by 2 degrees and upped the snow from 3-5 to now 5- 8 inches on Tuesday. So I ask again ??????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 CMC looks like 3-4" of snow for the immediate NYC metro (including my house, lol), followed by another 0.6" of LE as sleet (as per soundings through 0Z Weds/96 hours, which show a definite sleet signature until at least that time, as per below (for Edison - NYC was very similar - Trenton was warmer, so less sleet likely), with a warm nose above 32F from 700 to 900 mbar and with the bottom ~2500 feet of the column at or below 32F), followed by another 1" of rain to be conservative, as the soundings 6 hours later are definitely rain (surface at 38F). In that case, the ~1" of frozen LE would likely simply absorb the 1" of pure rain, with minimal to modest melting, since surface temps just barely make it above 40F by early Weds morning, although they stay above 32F through Wednesday, so melting will occur (and not a hard freeze, as modeled). I bet the TT map would look just like the FV3 map if the CMC TT map showed sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 I'm looking at pictures from the Jan 2018 snowstorm Boy I miss a nice snowstorm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, RU848789 said: CMC looks like 3-4" of snow for the immediate NYC metro (including my house, lol), followed by another 0.6" of LE as sleet (as per soundings through 0Z Weds/96 hours, which show a definite sleet signature until at least that time, as per below (for Edison - NYC was very similar - Trenton was warmer, so less sleet likely), with a warm nose above 32F from 700 to 900 mbar and with the bottom ~2500 feet of the column at or below 32F), followed by another 1" of rain to be conservative, as the soundings 6 hours later are definitely rain (surface at 38F). In that case, the ~1" of frozen LE would likely simply absorb the 1" of pure rain, with minimal to modest melting, since surface temps just barely make it above 40F by early Weds morning, although they stay above 32F through Wednesday, so melting will occur (and not a hard freeze, as modeled). I bet the TT map would look just like the FV3 map if the CMC TT map showed sleet. Yeah the GGEM gives a long period of sleet after the 3 to 4 inches of snow. I just watched the color loop and it gives our area sleet for about 7 hours, before the change to rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah the GGEM gives a long period of sleet after the 3 to 4 inches of snow. I just watched the color loop and it gives our area sleet for about 7 hours, before the change to rain. Thanks for confirming. What's the "color loop?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 17 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Thanks for confirming. What's the "color loop?" http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html It's just like watching the futurecast (precip types, timing and movement) that you see on tv weathercasts, only it's the Canadian models instead. For the first 48 hours it shows the RGEM, and then at hour 49 it switches to the GGEM and goes out to day 5. You just have to hit animate. Very good tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 FV3 looks like it might have backed off a bit from the 18Z run from the NCEP site. Looks like about maybe 3/4" frozen (snow and sleet) vs. close to 1" at 18Z, then a lot of rain. Hard to read those maps, though, so I could be off on that. UK holds course with a helluva nice snow thump of 6-10" for most - looks nearly identical to 12Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html It's just like watching the futurecast (precip types, timing and movement) that you see on tv weathercasts, only it's the Canadian models instead. For the first 48 hours it shows the RGEM, and then at hour 49 it switches to the GGEM and goes out to day 5. You just have to hit animate. Very good tool. Sweet - thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 anyone have a model run or 2 they care to discuss / share ? Bueller? Anyone ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 40 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Sweet - thanks! You're welcome. One of my favorite things to look at during winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 01/11/91, 02/21/93 and 02/23/94 all show up in the top 10 analogs tonight. Snow amounts in NYC were 5.7, 4.3, and 2.4...this event is probably closest on high position to 1/11/91 but in terms of the approaching storm system strength and WAA closest to 1994. That would put us near 3-4 inches which is what the Euro has been showing 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Ukie has a thump before the rain for the coast and more snow inland. Euro is similiar but warmer with 850s quickly rising but surface temps staying cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 6z Nam has precip stsrting off as sleet for the area with not alot of rain afterwards with temps near freezing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Looks like another interior storm, story of the winter, the coast usually flips pretty quick to rain in these scenarios where the upper levels torch fast so I'm skeptical of a sleet storm still time for changes but right now the models are warming up the upper levels much faster than previous runs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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