snowheavyattimes Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 I feel like I’m on the Titanic. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Bueller? Buehler? 06Z is 5 hours away... https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 strong cad signal. wait until this is in the short range so the meso models can sort out the details 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 I had to laugh at the GFS ensembles snow map it literally appears to believe Long Island is an ocean compared to the European ensemble map which actually show up to probably about 3 to 4 inches for the same area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 7 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: 06Z is 5 hours away... https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php Your correct. I'm stupid. I meant 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 48 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Anybody else noticing how warm it’s getting next week after the storm? Uh? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Uh? High forecasted of 48 for NYC Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: Dude what rainstorm it’s 80 snow and 20 light rain and drizzle stop misinforming people newbie We don't know that just yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: We don't know that just yet We go through this every time and snow overperforms and it ends as some light rain and drizzle I’m willing to actually take bets now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Just by looking at a MOS table such as the MeteoStar type, you can immediately see that nothing is going to change snow wise for two more weeks. All precipitation periods show the 850mb T's gleefully jumping above 0C each time some frozen stuff is possible. Of course that Feb. 23 is probably the result of a putative P8 MJO by then, another dubious hoop to get through. JB and his cohort at WeatherBell say it is going to happen, just 4 or 6 weeks after it was suppose to. Always 10 days away as the dog runs the circle faster and faster trying catch his own tail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: We go through this every time and snow overperforms and it ends as some light rain and drizzle I’m willing to actually take bets now Like Forky stated, we have to see how the cad sets up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 18 minutes ago, forkyfork said: strong cad signal. wait until this is in the short range so the meso models can sort out the details Forky or anyone else when are the Meso models within their wheelhouse ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Revisiting a topic I've discussed before on the board (and maybe people are tired of, lol), which is what I think is a really interesting comparison between how model output services can differ widely when sharing what should be identical information. The first graphic shows the 18Z GFS-FV3 from Tropical Tidbits, which shows about ~9" of snow for the Philly-NYC corridor (I'm using 9" for illustration purposes), but it includes sleet and counts it the same way it counts snow, i.e., as 10:1 ratio snow, which is flawed, as sleet is usually about 3" of sleet per 1" of liquid (but has the same frozen mass as the snow, just not the same depth). Second is the 12Z GFS-FV3 from Pivotal Weather, which only shows pure snow at 10" snow per 1" of liquid, but excludes sleet entirely. This is also highly flawed, as the map makes it look like a minor ~2" snowfall for Philly-NYC (I'm using 2" for illustration purposes), when in reality, we're really talking about ~2" of snow + about 2" of sleet, which is equivalent to ~7" of regular snow, for a total of 9" of "10:1 equivalent snow" as per the TT map. Personally, I think the TT maps are better, as they at least are truly showing the total mass of frozen precip, which is equivalent to 9" worth of 10:1 snow (or 0.9" of liquid equivalent), while the PW maps probably would cause people to significantly underestimate the impact of the frozen precip that is expected to fall. At least for shoveling, plowing and driving (apart from visibility), mass is the far more important number, not depth. As if predicting "snowfall" isn't hard enough, lol. As an aside, it would be nice if the FV3 scores a coup here (it did quite well on 11/15, but not so well since). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 23 minutes ago, forkyfork said: strong cad signal. wait until this is in the short range so the meso models can sort out the details Nice shot. What's your thinking on this? I'm not a met, but when I look at 11/15, where the CAD clearly overperformed (vs. forecasts; the models actually were bullish on snow for that one, despite being in the face of 50F+ ocean temps) vs. 1/20, where the CAD was eroded very quickly and there was far less frozen precip than most models (and forecasters) predicted, it makes me wonder how anyone can be confident in the outcome on this one. I know the setups were quite different, but the basic issue of how the hell do we really have a strong clue about what's going to happen in 3+ days is daunting. At least to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 8 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Nice shot. What's your thinking on this? I'm not a met, but when I look at 11/15, where the CAD clearly overperformed (vs. forecasts; the models actually were bullish on snow for that one, despite being in the face of 50F+ ocean temps) vs. 1/20, where the CAD was eroded very quickly and there was far less frozen precip than most models (and forecasters) predicted, it makes me wonder how anyone can be confident in the outcome on this one. I know the setups were quite different, but the basic issue of how the hell do we really have a strong clue about what's going to happen in 3+ days is daunting. At least to me. The angle of approach of the storm isn’t as good as 11/15. The high position is about the same. There’s zero comparison to 1/20. The high was simply not positioned as well. This system approaches in a way where the WAA precip is more likely to go N and W initially vs the December storm where it came up from the south. I would be somewhat surprised if we saw 6-7 inch amounts in the immediate metro with this one as of now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The angle of approach of the storm isn’t as good as 11/15. The high position is about the same. There’s zero comparison to 1/20. The high was simply not positioned as well. This system approaches in a way where the WAA precip is more likely to go N and W initially vs the December storm where it came up from the south. I would be somewhat surprised if we saw 6-7 inch amounts in the immediate metro with this one as of now I will be surprised if we see that much in any event this winter. In fact, I will be surprised if my area gets accumulating snow. 3-4 inches would be a big deal at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 What did the 18Z models show? I haven't read a word here about them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrapin8100 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 12 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: What did the 18Z models show? I haven't read a word here about them. 1 hour ago, purduewx80 said: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: Words fail me.... Like the twilight zone..... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 May can't come fast enough. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 11 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Like the twilight zone..... You made me chuckle out loud, thanks for that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: You made me chuckle out loud, thanks for that! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said: We go through this every time and snow overperforms and it ends as some light rain and drizzle I’m willing to actually take bets now Cant say we go through this everytime when the setup is still 4 days out. If it stays the way currently depicted on the models then yes this would likely be the outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 There’s still plenty of time. I’d like to believe the cmc is the best case scenario barely any rain. Still plenty of time... btw weatherpruf dan76 you’re being ignored cause your analysis in my opinion is the analysis of a 4 year old. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: There’s still plenty of time. I’d like to believe the cmc is the best case scenario barely any rain. Still plenty of time... btw weatherpruf dan76 you’re being ignored cause your analysis in my opinion is the analysis of a 4 year old. Oy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 GFS is pretty ugly, oy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 hour ago, weatherpruf said: I will be surprised if we see that much in any event this winter. In fact, I will be surprised if my area gets accumulating snow. 3-4 inches would be a big deal at this point. I understand the pessimism, given the disappointments this winter, but each event should generally be an independent event, and right now, apart from the GFS, every model is showing at least 3-5" of snow/sleet (at least in frozen mass, if not depth) for NB to NYC. We have not been in that situation 3.5 days out for any of the other storms that "missed" us this year (they generally had 1 or 2 models showing decent snow, but others showing much less). Of course, that may all go into the crapper in future model runs, but right now things at least look decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: GFS is pretty ugly, oy. Looks about the same as 18Z to me, which is not great, but it doesn't seem worse than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Just now, RU848789 said: Looks about the same as 18Z to me, which is not great, but it doesn't seem worse than that. Similar overall, looks a touch worse to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Similar overall, looks a touch worse to me. Simulated radar and estimated snowfall maps are nearly identical... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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