MJO812 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: Nothing written here makes any sense meteorologically. The baseline assumption that a weak El Nino guarantees a snowy winter...no. The idea that the SSW overwhelmed an El Nino and somehow caused the MJO to be "all over the place"...no. Just none of it makes any sense. Why do you think people went snowy this winter ? Even majority of forecasters said they went snowy because of the forecasted weak EL Nino. Go ahead and nitpick by post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: that's our metfan..... What about the post doesn't make any sense? It's funny how meteorologists differ with each other. A met told me that the SSW was the cause of the MJO to get stuck. do you think Earthlight and Isotherm went cold with alot of snow ? No one predicted the MJO to get stuck in the favorable phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: What about the post doesn't make any sense? It makes sense to other people who I talk with . Why do you think Earthlight and Isotherm went cold with alot of snow ? Has there ever been a time you didn't say "The storm next week will trend colder?" asking for a friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just now, NycStormChaser said: Has there ever been a time you didn't say "The storm next week will trend colder?" asking for a friend or "winter's over folks, get out the swimsuits" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 minute ago, NycStormChaser said: Has there ever been a time you didn't say "The storm next week will trend colder?" asking for a friend Yes many times I'm JBs lost nephew 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: up to 52 here...warm first week of Feb.... I wonder if we'll actually get some spring weather during the real spring months of March & April, it's been a struggle as of late. In fact last year Feb & March literally switched places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 52 minutes ago, ag3 said: That's a 10 to 1 map and overdone. Yes, but NYC may struggle to even reach half of what that map shows. It's early, but something in the range of 1"-3" is probably much closer to what might happen than what the map depicts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Yes many times I'm JBs lost nephew did you read JB's post today-it's like a blind monkey throwing darts at a board...my head was spinning he literally made no sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I wonder if we'll actually get some spring weather during the real spring months of March & April, it's been a struggle as of late. In fact last year Feb & March literally switched places. have to hope for a dominant SW flow this spring-keep winds offshore. That massive snowpack in Eastern Canada worries me for back door hell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: What about the post doesn't make any sense? The whole thing. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 35 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Anyone have the Euro snowfall map (looks like a general 3-5" for the 95 corridor/NYC, but I can't paste it from weather.us). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: did you read JB's post today-it's like a blind monkey throwing darts at a board...my head was spinning he literally made no sense Nope What did he say? I remember him canceling winter last week then he went gungho again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just now, Metasequoia said: Thanks - sorry to be a pain, but do you happen to have one that shows all of NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Nope What did he say? I remember him canceling winter last week then he went gungho again. he starts off by saying that the trough coming to the east will push the snow too far south-then he mentions Feb 94, then shows a pic of the SW PAC region being opposite of Feb 94 and that once past the 15th it might not work out for us....very confusing post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 If there is truly a group of mets trying to spin the idea that an SSW is causing, somehow, tropical forcing to get stuck off the coast of Vietnam and in the maritime continent (or whatever all over the place means), and that, somehow is overwhelming an El Nino (which was collapsing in the east Pacific in Jan) and all of that is screwing up the snowfall patterns, I'd say they've lost their damn minds. That makes no freaking sense. You're talking about of a correlation of a weaker correlation somehow overwhelming an even weaker correlation to snowfall. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just now, RU848789 said: Thanks - sorry to be a pain, but do you happen to have one that shows all of NJ? Certainly not a pain. I unfortunately don't have access to these particular snow maps other than what the NE forum folks post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 55 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Mostly sleet For once we agree. The mid-levels are torched, it’s not snow, it’s sleet and the UKMET has been overdoing snow/too cold all winter long. I tried warning you yesterday that this was a completely horrible snow setup for the metro area but somehow it got twisted into me saying it because I’m a bad person. This is going to be a mostly rain event come Tuesday, the red flags are all out, warning bells are sounding. The models are not done trending warmer here, mark my words. The theme of this winter, and of the horrible teleconnections and lack of Atlantic blocking. By Sunday and Monday they will be much warmer than what we have today and snow amounts will be dropped even further. Watch the cutting primary, parent low become stronger and stronger and the idea of secondary coastal redevelopment go by the way side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: If there is truly a group of mets trying to spin the idea that an SSW is causing, somehow, tropical forcing to get stuck off the coast of Vietnam and in the maritime continent, and that, somehow is overwhelming an El Nino (which was collapsing in the east Pacific in Jan) and all of that is screwing up the snowfall patterns, I'd say they've lost their damn minds. That makes no freaking sense. You're talking about of a correlation of a weaker correlation somehow overwhelming an even weaker correlation to snowfall. It’s possible that the SSW that was ongoing in the Southern Hemisphere at that same time could have had some sort of negative impact but it’s hard to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just now, snowman19 said: For once we agree. The mid-levels are torched, it’s not snow, it’s sleet and the UKMET has been overdoing snow/too cold all winter long. I tried warning you yesterday that this was a completely horrible snow setup for the metro area but somehow it got twisted into me saying it because I’m a bad person. This is going to be a mostly rain event come Tuesday, the red flags are all out, warning bells are sounding. The models are not done trending warmer here, mark my words. The theme of this winter, and of the horrible teleconnections and lack of Atlantic blocking. By Sunday and Monday they will be much warmer than what we have today and snow amounts will be dropped even further. Watch the cutting primary, parent low become stronger and stronger and the idea of secondary coastal redevelopment go by the way side I just don’t see it. Not with the positioning of that high. The January event never remotely looked this good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just now, snowman19 said: For once we agree. The mid-levels are torched, it’s not snow, it’s sleet and the UKMET has been overdoing snow/too cold all winter long. I tried warning you yesterday that this was a completely horrible snow setup for the metro area but somehow it got twisted into me saying it because I’m a bad person. This is going to be a mostly rain event come Tuesday, the red flags are all out, warning bells are sounding. The models are not done trending warmer here, mark my words. The theme of this winter, and of the horrible teleconnections and lack of Atlantic blocking. By Sunday and Monday they will be much warmer than what we have today and snow amounts will be dropped even further. Watch the cutting primary, parent low become stronger and stronger and the idea of secondary coastal redevelopment go by the way side yeah I'm not sure how it secondaries with a retreating high up north. The 1/20 low was supposed to secondary, never happened and it was mostly rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: For once we agree. The mid-levels are torched, it’s not snow, it’s sleet and the UKMET has been overdoing snow/too cold all winter long. I tried warning you yesterday that this was a completely horrible snow setup for the metro area but somehow it got twisted into me saying it because I’m a bad person. This is going to be a mostly rain event come Tuesday, the red flags are all out, warning bells are sounding. The models are not done trending warmer here, mark my words. The theme of this winter, and of the horrible teleconnections and lack of Atlantic blocking. By Sunday and Monday they will be much warmer than what we have today and snow amounts will be dropped even further. Watch the cutting primary, parent low become stronger and stronger and the idea of secondary coastal redevelopment go by the way side 850s torch as the storm low near the lakes come north. We need a secondary and a weaker lakes low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 850s torch as the storm low near the lakes come north. We need a secondary and a weaker lakes low. We have a much better source of cold air to work with. This one could actually put up a fight unlike that last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 26 minutes ago, snowman19 said: For once we agree. The mid-levels are torched, it’s not snow, it’s sleet and the UKMET has been overdoing snow/too cold all winter long. I tried warning you yesterday that this was a completely horrible snow setup for the metro area but somehow it got twisted into me saying it because I’m a bad person. This is going to be a mostly rain event come Tuesday, the red flags are all out, warning bells are sounding. The models are not done trending warmer here, mark my words. The theme of this winter, and of the horrible teleconnections and lack of Atlantic blocking. By Sunday and Monday they will be much warmer than what we have today and snow amounts will be dropped even further. Watch the cutting primary, parent low become stronger and stronger and the idea of secondary coastal redevelopment go by the way side There’s no sleet with this system there’ll be snow and rain that’s it I don’t care what the models show I don’t think there’ll be sleet maybe for five minutes as snow is transitioning to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 33 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Thanks - sorry to be a pain, but do you happen to have one that shows all of NJ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 7 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: We have a much better source of cold air to work with. This one could actually put up a fight unlike that last storm. I agree with this The issue is going to be how long will the CAD hold in place. The longer it does the better. More frozen precip . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 7 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: There’s no sleet with this system there’ll be snow and rain that’s it I don’t care what the models show I don’t think there’ll be sleet maybe for five minutes as snow is transitioning to rain In general with SWFE type events it’s safe to avoid going too happy with sleet. There are instances like the February or January 2014 event where we saw sleet for a long period but typically the sleet period is brief. The tendency for coastal areas here is for it to be primarily snow and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 12z Euro mean has a few inches for the area before the rain comes in The individual snowfall maps look good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 18 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: In general with SWFE type events it’s safe to avoid going too happy with sleet. There are instances like the February or January 2014 event where we saw sleet for a long period but typically the sleet period is brief. The tendency for coastal areas here is for it to be primarily snow and rain Boy did I hate those storms. Inches and inches of sleet. That was some of the most annoying stuff ever to have to move with a shovel. It was like ball bearings rolling around and off the shovel. Too many inches Then to make it worse the first storm of the next year was all sleet too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 You know it's a bad pattern when PB isn't here to yell at us and try to sell it as a good pattern (that only he predicted) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 This is the strongest early February -PNA outside of a cold ENSO state in a long time. Just the latest in a string of oddities this winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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