Brian5671 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Honestly, who cares anymore-let's just get an early spring and put this disaster behind us. BTW any years with an inch of snow b/w 12/1-2/28 Met winter????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Yet another year that feels like February is transitioning into a Spring month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 5:36 PM, RU848789 said: You don't understand snow lovers then. I absolutely love everything about seeing snow falling and accumulating, even if it gets washed away, since I enjoy watching it and being out in it - sure I'd like it to stick around, but that's secondary to me. And it's even more fun if that snow was well predicted. Expand we've had a hard time getting even that...we had a couple of hours of falling snow 1/20 and then the snow squall last week. Other than that, rainers from start to finish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 5:36 PM, RU848789 said: You don't understand snow lovers then. I absolutely love everything about seeing snow falling and accumulating, even if it gets washed away, since I enjoy watching it and being out in it - sure I'd like it to stick around, but that's secondary to me. And it's even more fun if that snow was well predicted. Expand And people overestimate snow getting washed away too. Yeah an inch or two will get washed away, but it's rare for 5 or 6 inches to get completely washed away unless it's VERY warm during the rain. Usually the snow absorbs a lot of the water and becomes very heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 12Z UKIE Lets see if we get support from EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 3:14 PM, SnowGoose69 said: It does appear the NAO is finally going negative in the next 7-10 days. The problem is it appears the PNA isn’t going positive so I’m not sure the pattern gets markedly better. I do think NYC might end up seeing double digit snowfall this month. The thing is it might all be washed away each time by rain. Think February 1993. I think we had 3 SWFEs and about 11-12 inches that month but nothing was on the ground for more than 12 hours Expand I remember that. 1 to 4 each storm then heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 5:50 PM, Metasequoia said: 12Z UKIE Expand you just saved winter...pretty consistent with last night...let's hope the UK is on to something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 5:40 PM, winterwx21 said: And people overestimate snow getting washed away too. Yeah an inch or two will get washed away, but it's rare for 5 or 6 inches to get completely washed away unless it's VERY warm during the rain. Usually the snow absorbs a lot of the water and becomes very heavy. Expand Great point. If it's in the 30s, 0.5" of rain on top of 0.5" of LE as sleet/snow, will mostly just make 1.0" of LE as slush, with little melting going on (not counting treated roads and not factoring in sun angle, if that's important). It's like 1" of LE as 5:1 ratio "slush" lol, and then it often all freezes on the backside cold which often comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 5:08 PM, SnowGoose69 said: The GFS will never get an event like this correct ever at this range. Based on that high postition and the degree of lift that’s easily a repeat of the November event with probably 3-6 inches even to the coast Expand very very very unlikely, honestly no snow at all fits the pattern let alone 3-6 inches. Its a awful setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 5:50 PM, Metasequoia said: 12Z UKIE Lets see if we get support from EURO. Expand My concern is that the UKMET is overly aggressive given the pattern. I hope it's reasonably accurate, but if not, it won't be the first time this winter it was too aggressive in forecasting snowfall for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 EURO looks more amped through 72 unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 6:07 PM, donsutherland1 said: My concern is that the UKMET is overly aggressive given the pattern. I hope it's reasonably accurate, but if not, it won't be the first time this winter it was too aggressive in forecasting snowfall for the area. Expand That's a 10 to 1 map and overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 5:13 PM, SnowGoose69 said: The 12Z UKMET sand 00Z Euro still want to show some overrunning snows Sunday night into Monday with the initial wave. The GFS has never had it and the NAM has now dropped it recent runs for the most part Expand Ukie has a few inches for wednesday. Euro also is very cold to start for Wednesday then sleet then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 6:09 PM, mikem81 said: EURO looks more amped through 72 unfortunately. Expand It's snow to sleet to rain for the area . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 5:50 PM, Metasequoia said: 12Z UKIE Lets see if we get support from EURO. Expand Mostly sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 5:38 PM, HailMan06 said: Yet another year that feels like February is transitioning into a Spring month. Expand Just like last year and then came March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 5:36 PM, Brian5671 said: Honestly, who cares anymore-let's just get an early spring and put this disaster behind us. BTW any years with an inch of snow b/w 12/1-2/28 Met winter????? Expand Boston is suffering worse than us this winter. They average around 45 inches. They are way below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 6:21 PM, Snow88 said: Mostly sleet Expand The model output graphic from TrueWeather doesn't say "including sleet" (at a 10:1 ratio), like the TT maps do. So, what are you basing "mostly sleet" on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 5:03 PM, NEG NAO said: a favorable MJO does not guarantee snowstorms in the NYC metro ……………… Expand No but it ensures a better pattern which is favorable for snow. We missed out on a snowstorm when the MJO was favorable. Dc got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 6:23 PM, RU848789 said: The model output graphic from TrueWeather doesn't say "including sleet" (at a 10:1 ratio), like the TT maps do. So, what are you basing "mostly sleet" on? Expand Temperature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Euro, Ukie and CMC are all colder than the Gfs for next week. Like I mentioned, the Gfs isn't going to see the cad signature well. Right now it's some accumulating snow for the coast then sleet and rain and more snow as you head inland. A little snow Sunday night also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Anyone have the Euro snowfall map (looks like a general 3-5" for the 95 corridor/NYC, but I can't paste it from weather.us). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 6:22 PM, Snow88 said: Boston is suffering worse than us this winter. They average around 45 inches. They are way below normal. Expand A winter of winners and losers, today's lucky winner: Seattle. They might see their snowiest winter in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 6:24 PM, Snow88 said: Temperature Expand So, you're saying you've seen the soundings for the column during the time the model is saying "snow" and you think the model is misinterpreting that? I don't have access to much of anything from the UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 6:00 PM, qg_omega said: very very very unlikely, honestly no snow at all fits the pattern let alone 3-6 inches. Its a awful setup Expand It's really not, but I get it you're a huge troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 up to 52 here...warm first week of Feb.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 2:55 PM, Snow88 said: Everyone thought this winter was going to be good because of the weak El Nino . Majority of forecasts had NYC at 30-40 inches and even some had it more than that. The SSW likely caused the MJO to be all over the place. If the SSW didn't happen, this would probably be a good winter. Expand Nothing written here makes any sense meteorologically. The baseline assumption that a weak El Nino guarantees a snowy winter...no. The idea that the SSW overwhelmed an El Nino and somehow caused the MJO to be "all over the place"...no. Just none of it makes any sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Up 10 degrees in a little over an hour to 55 and sunny. A small window of pleasant weather today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 6:56 PM, NittanyWx said: Nothing written here makes any sense meteorologically. The baseline assumption that a weak El Nino guarantees a snowy winter...no. The idea that the SSW overwhelmed an El Nino and somehow caused the MJO to be "all over the place"...no. Just none of it makes any sense. Expand that's our metfan..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 The Euro setup still looks good for front end snow. Watch the Sunday night event too. A slight north shift verbatim that could be a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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